Bigger gamble Allen's ascension or Cams ability to stay healthy?

[mav1234]

11 hours ago, micnificent28 said:

I say it comes down to Allen's ascension because if he wasn't showing you can win with him would we even be discussing moving on from Cam? The narrative would be "when newton returns next season". But because we have won with Allen the focus has shifted to "well why pay him 19 million for next season" when you have allen who is 24 and only gonna get better. This is a really really poo situation and a decision I'm glad I dont have to make and i am only speaking from the perspective of what i personally think and what i would do.

I'm a risk taker myself and an optimist lol. What's 19 million the grand scheme of next season. As far as newton long term I'm sure there are safe guards that a savvy gm can put in place in a contract to protect the team long term and also give Newton the piece of mind he desire. Off the top of my head Kapernicks contract comes to mind where it looked massive but he only saw a quarter of that money or what was guaranteed in the grand scheme of things. So it seems to be that the franchise must really have some faith that allen is a franchise guy if you decide to move on from Cam.

Sure, if Allen had lost 7 games instead of 2 it would definitely be a different conversation right now... among the fans.  But right now, the Panthers haven't made a firm decision but "insiders" don't think Cam is capable of being right through a whole season.  And so I think regardless of Allen, the Panthers ownership/management are not sold on Cam's long-term health.  I think they are not sold on Allen as a franchise guy, but I believe that their decision on Cam is not necessarily linked to that belief.

19 mill is not a ton, but if you "know" (strongly believe, since nothing is really known like that before Cam takes the field again) that Cam isn't capable of starting because you have inside information as the team he is playing for, the draft capital we could get in a trade would be worth it... That decision doesn't necessarily rest on Allen's performance, since there are likely to be QBs available this offseason that are probably better than Allen could be in year 2 (albeit more costly).

[AU-panther]

11 hours ago, SBiii said:

Why wouldn't he do so?

Away from that, if Tepper says to play out the one year deal Cam must do so.....or, sit out.  If he sits out next season too he's probably done in the NFL.

Cam has no leverage.  The smartest thing he can do is show up and ball out for a year....then reap the payback for doing so.

I sure hope Cam has representation that gets it....

Cam has leverage.  Look around, players are taking more control of where they play everyday.  

Yes, he is under contract, but he can say if you don't sign me long term right now there is no way I'm resigning when the contract is up.  At that point you lose him for nothing, or a comp pick at the most.  He can sit out.  He can err on the side of caution with any injury.

If a player wants to force his way out, he can make things difficult for a team.

The smartest thing he can do at his age, and given his recent injury history, is to sign a long term deal with a lot of guaranteed money.

 

[Cpt slay a ho]

3 hours ago, Jeremy Igo said:

This presupposes Cam can get 100% healthy again. That definitely is not guaranteed.

I’m content with taking that gamble for the 2020 season. 

[Cpt slay a ho]

2 hours ago, stbugs said:

First, Allen has no choice. We’ve got three really cheap years with the first two where he has 0, beyond 0 leverage. I’ve posted this before that even if we wanted to be nice and get him up front money then we’d easily be able to work out a 5 year deal for $5/6 million a year, i.e. backup money. We give Allen up front money 4 years in advance for cheaper year 4/5 knowing we are taking a bit of a risk as well that he doesn’t get worse. That’s why I mention the $70 to even $100M over 3-5 years we could save. That’s almost Khalil Mack/Aaron Donald money. That’s a huge FA or retention difference.

Second, while I’m with you that I’d love a healthy Cam, I don’t feel good about that happening. This is the 4th year in a row that health has been an issue. 2017 was the healthiest he’s been and we didn’t even know if he’s start the season. I know people love to point to TJ Watt but geez, the shoulder’s been an issue since the end of 2016. It’s nice to have Allen, but let’s talk playoffs. Cam has finished 1 of the last 4 years. Do we think that will improve as he gets older and now has shoulder and foot issues.

You’re still referring to long term savings, in which we’d only save that type of money if we were prepared to extend cam prior to the start of the 2020 season. 

you are correct in those savings but looking ahead to 2020 there’s not a big time fa that jumps off the screen, in fact I’d be surprised if most aren’t staying with there current teams.

yeah I believe so, 2018 he was on track for the type of improvement he needed to increase his longevity. He’s dealt with rib, post car accident, and ankle injuries before, his shoulder is my main concern, everything else is nagging injuries that won’t have long term repercussions if rehabbed and repaired correctly. 

There’s a good bit of qbs that have missed more or the same amount of time cam has due to worst injuries than he’s sustained currently 

in the end I’d take the gamble he comes back healthy than I would that Allen ascends to a level of some of the better undrafted qbs 

 

 

[AU-panther]

Everyone wants to turn this into a Cam or Allen question and honestly I think how Allen does is a bit irrelevant.

What they do with Cam isn't about Allen or the $19m next year.

Everyone needs to focus on the real question here, which is "would you prefer to release/trade Cam or pay Cam $150m/5yr with about $70m guaranteed?

 

[TheSpecialJuan]

16 hours ago, Cpt slay a ho said:

Both are gambles, However in nfl history, There’s only a handful of successful undrafted qbs.

I stand firmly by what I’ve been stating, smartest decision barring cam wanting out, ect is to let cam get 100% healthy, sit down with him and let him know due to his recent injury history we are not looking to extend him yet, but he still is the panthers franchise qb when healthy.

in the meantime you develop both Grier and Allen in preparation that cam maybe breaking down or that one of them has the potential to replace cam down the road. 
 

unless you can sell me on what drastic changes 19.1 mil will do for this team I don’t see the benefits in cutting or trading cam unless you’re 1000% sure he’s done 

agree 100% 

[Matt62881]

17 hours ago, micnificent28 said:

Because this is all the comes down to. Yes this is another Cam vs Allen thread. Because this is the most important thing to happen in the franchise's history in my opinion. It seems most are willing to bet Allen can improve his game to levels of starter like success vs Cam staying on the field. To me it seem the easier and more likely scenario is Newton staying healthy. Before the last season or 2 had had been built up as this god who couldnt get hurt now because of the shoulder and the foot injury his body is breaking down. Who is the expert that declares when a person body is simply getting hurt from bad luck vs oh it's over his body is breaking down?

My thoughts on the two are these are 2 completely different injuries that have nothing what so ever to do with each other. Just because your shoulder got hurt and yes that is a huge one and was suppose to take multiple season to get back to sustainable levels doesn't mean your whole body is just giving out. The foot injury as far as I'm concerned is a random freak accident that could have happened to anyone. More bad luck than anything.  Keep him clean and you know what you have with newton on the field.

The bigger gamble is believing allen can win you football games. Yes you can win with him limiting mistakes but so far I haven't seen any evidence he can march you down the field vs good teams and will a team to victory. Yes he has moxy and guts throws a accurate mid range ball,but it lacks zip and deep range accuracy. That isn't the end all be all tho.. my thoughts is that can we be sure this guy can develop into a player worthy of letting a guy whom we know if healthy can will a team to victories is worth keeping over a guy who hasn't shown that ability for.

Seems the common consensus is we know cam cant stay healthy and is more likely to get hurt than allen is likely to throw 3-4 touchdowns and win the big games. I just feel this is a grave mistake one that because were afraid cam will get hurt again we are just going with the lesser talent who hasn't gotten hurt yet. And yes that could happen as well but we lose the bonus of haven a proven winner and generation talent. A true hall of fame game breaker.I feel we are more likely to get from Grier what we get from allen than to assume Allen is a competitor and leader who can will us to victory in the same vein as Newton. Have we been spoiled by the Newton era so much that we think we can win with anybody or have we forgot what it's like to be the browns or dolphins who have been searching for a decade talent for...well decades?  It also feels th media is creating the perfect storm to drive the narrative to get cam out of carolina and onto a bigger market franchise.

Personally i feel if they actually allow Cam to get 100% he will stay healthy outside a freak injury. Let the Man heal and play our once in a lifetime franchise Qb!

[Navy_football]

5 hours ago, stbugs said:

First, Allen has no choice. We’ve got three really cheap years with the first two where he has 0, beyond 0 leverage. I’ve posted this before that even if we wanted to be nice and get him up front money then we’d easily be able to work out a 5 year deal for $5/6 million a year, i.e. backup money. We give Allen up front money 4 years in advance for cheaper year 4/5 knowing we are taking a bit of a risk as well that he doesn’t get worse. That’s why I mention the $70 to even $100M over 3-5 years we could save. That’s almost Khalil Mack/Aaron Donald money. That’s a huge FA or retention difference.

Second, while I’m with you that I’d love a healthy Cam, I don’t feel good about that happening. This is the 4th year in a row that health has been an issue. 2017 was the healthiest he’s been and we didn’t even know if he’s start the season. I know people love to point to TJ Watt but geez, the shoulder’s been an issue since the end of 2016. It’s nice to have Allen, but let’s talk playoffs. Cam has finished 1 of the last 4 years. Do we think that will improve as he gets older and now has shoulder and foot issues.

I don't  think there's any way Allen is gonna honor a 5-year contract to be the starting QB for the Carolina Panthers for $5/6 Million?

Even if he signs an extension, he'll sit out after another season as a starter. If the team moves on from Cam for Kyle, they'll have one or two more seasons max with a cheap QB. 

[Pimpdaddy]

interesting comparison here... I know people will hate this but im ready to move on..his legs are gone...which made him electric...if he had accuracy and was a prolific passer...id say pony up.... as far as game winablilty Cam and Allen are equal in that respect at this point in time.... time to move on...dont hamstring the team on big cap money on someone that most likely wont be worth it..

[Navy_football]

I have never seen a team move on from an injured franchise QB to save cap space, because the backup has played "good enough" to win against bad teams.

Cam's foot will heal. There's a 36 year old tight end balling out on the roster right now that just came back from a more severe version of the same injury. And Cam is a better athlete at 30 than Olsen ever was.

Luck showed us the shoulder injury needed more time to heal than the front office was willing to give Cam - to save their jobs. Cam took a ragtag gang of WRs and oline to the wire against New Orleans in the 2017 playoffs. They literally dropped game winning TDs that the announcers said - and I quote "he couldn't have handed it to him any better". 

Cam has been playing like a franchise QB from his first game against the Cardinals in 2011 up until the Steelers game in 2018. If you dont move on from Luck, or Roethlisberger, or Brees, or Wentz (backup took them to the Super Bowl and won it), or Foles (on a different team), or Brady, or whoever else because they got injured and their backups were winning games, then you don't move on from Cam Newton! They'll be looking for his replacement for the next 5-10 years!

[Navy_football]

2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

$5/6 million per year, like a 5 year $30M deal instead of league minimum for years 1 and 2, RFA salary for year 3 and then actual FA year 4 and 5.

Gotcha. That makes more sense. I missed it in your original post.

I still don't think he'd sign anything more than 3 years though. These guys are uber confident and will almost always bet on themselves. 

Which is why I think Cam comes back next year to play the final year of his contract. Tepper won't give him an extension until he proves he's healthy. So now he forgets the playoffs return possibility, has the foot surgery, and plays next season as a Carolina Panther - hopefully completely healed from existing injuries. No excuses now.

[SBiii]

8 hours ago, AU-panther said:

The smartest thing he can do at his age, and given his recent injury history, is to sign a long term deal with a lot of guaranteed money.

If some fool were to offer Cam a long-term deal with a lot of guaranteed money prior to next season.....

.....Cam would in fact be "smart" to sign that deal.

That said, only one team has the right to do so and Tepper's not going to let it happen.

Curious, specifically what do you believe will happen? 

 

[SBiii]

12 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

If teams like Chicago are willing to give him a multi year deal (desperate teams will) why would be play on a one year behind a shaky line with an injury history.

Chicago doesn't have the option to sign Cam. 

The Panthers own Cam's rights through the end of next season. 

[stratocatter]

What I know about Cam and his future prospects of being a superstar again is, there is a player who has had seasons of shoulder trouble and gets it fixed (supposedly) and can't make it through a couple of weeks of practice and a few plays before going down with a season ending (?) foot injury.

Does anyone know how many other parts can wear out once that is declared "healed"? I don't. Does anyone? There are a lot I am sure. Including the shoulder, the same foot, the other foot, a knee, an ankle... and on and on.

And giving him a new deal at almost twice the money, after the last couple of years? I wouldn't. Even if he made it through 2020 even if I wanted to, really bad, I just wouldn't.