Bigger gamble Allen's ascension or Cams ability to stay healthy?

[micnificent28]

35 minutes ago, bull123 said:

It’s not the $19m next year, it’s the$200m for the next contract that’s the risk

Who says he's gonna get 200 million based on his health and well no one is getting 200 million anytime soon or before mahomes. I think your exaggerating a bit. What he gets come down to management's ability to reason with him and let him know look.. you been hurt 2 years we like u but we aren't giving you 150 million.

[1of10Charnatives]

11 hours ago, micnificent28 said:

Who says he's gonna get 200 million based on his health and well no one is getting 200 million anytime soon or before mahomes. I think your exaggerating a bit. What he gets come down to management's ability to reason with him and let him know look.. you been hurt 2 years we like u but we aren't giving you 150 million.

Based on what we know right now, if I had to guess about any source of behind the scenes friction between Cam and the team, it would be over the gap between what Cam believes he should be paid and extended for, and what the team is willing to do.

[Moo Daeng]

Read the last two months of the huddle if you want know peoples thoughts on this.

[AU-panther]

1 hour ago, Cpt slay a ho said:

I’ve been saying this for jump street, no one is selling me yet or attempted to on what better use the 19.1 mil will go to.

im convinced if it’s not towards another qb in the same tier as cam it is only keeping us enough talented to put us out of top qb range when drafting, not to mention wasting seasons of a prime cmc and luke while we fiddle around trying to find a franchise qb or waiting for Allen to become one when history is stacked heavily against him 

I don't think the questions about keeping Cam is about the 19.1m, its about the 35m a year over 5 years (with probably close to 70m guaranteed) that will expected.

[micnificent28]

1 hour ago, mav1234 said:

I don't really think this not the case, though.  The "Cam healthy or Allen ascending, those are your options" is a false dichotomy.    This is because Allen will most likely be on this team either way (cost/contract related), and even if the Panthers do not think he is the "long term future", it does not mean Cam is back, nor does it mean Allen has no value to the team. 

As an example... Let's say the Panthers move on from Cam.  They can do any number of things... including the following:

1) Draft a QB in the 1st round hoping for him to become the franchise guy,

2) Decide to stick with Allen as the starter (whether that means they think about him as a franchise guy or not) without a competition of any kind.

3) Bring in a veteran QB to challenge for the starter job in camp, expressly demoting Allen back to backup.

Only 1 of those 3 involves the Panthers believing Allen is "ascending."  Some of these things will eat some of the money that would have been spent on a year of Cam (and note, Cam will def. want an extension), but unlikely all of it (unless #3 is actually bringing in a veteran, high priced starter).  And so, the team do not need to bet on Allen if they let Cam go.

At the same time, they actually do not need to 'give up on' Allen ascending if they decide to bet on Cam's health.  It is completely possible that the team will think Allen is a future franchise QB, but he would be better served backing Cam up for another 2-3 years.  

Now in the world of betting TODAY that Cam will be healthy or Allen is going to turn into a franchise player, and in the total, complete bubble of those things, I would bet on Cam.  We know Cam's ceiling.  We know what he can do and bring to this team - and so, IMO, do ownership/management.  But I would bet almost nothing.  That is because neither, to me, is likely - and also because I hate betting anything, hahaha.  An interesting thought experiment anyway.  One I am glad I don't need to consider in reality.

edit: FWIW I mostly agree with you RE: Allen being the bigger gamble, but I think he has shown a bit more than you do.  And I am more worried about Cam's injuries since I think that while the foot and shoulder aren't related, I think the shoulder is not something that is really better.  Just a difference in opinions.  I'm more than a bit of a pessimist :P 

I say it comes down to Allen's ascension because if he wasn't showing you can win with him would we even be discussing moving on from Cam? The narrative would be "when newton returns next season". But because we have won with Allen the focus has shifted to "well why pay him 19 million for next season" when you have allen who is 24 and only gonna get better. This is a really really poo situation and a decision I'm glad I dont have to make and i am only speaking from the perspective of what i personally think and what i would do.

I'm a risk taker myself and an optimist lol. What's 19 million the grand scheme of next season. As far as newton long term I'm sure there are safe guards that a savvy gm can put in place in a contract to protect the team long term and also give Newton the piece of mind he desire. Off the top of my head Kapernicks contract comes to mind where it looked massive but he only saw a quarter of that money or what was guaranteed in the grand scheme of things. So it seems to be that the franchise must really have some faith that allen is a franchise guy if you decide to move on from Cam.

[Ricky Spanish]

In my opinion it's not whether or not I think Allen is the answer over Newton it's that I don't think Cam will ever be healthy again, and because of it we need to move on and find our next franchise QB. 

I don't know if it's Allen, I don't know if it's someone else, but I don't think Cam is ever going to get back to 2015 Cam again.

[Jon Snow]

Both.

[My Goodness My Guinness]

Can we stop making the same threads over and over?

[Cpt slay a ho]

34 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

I don't think the questions about keeping Cam is about the 19.1m, its about the 35m a year over 5 years (with probably close to 70m guaranteed) that will expected.

You gamble next year and cam shoulder holds up without limitations, I’d be happy to extend him in a heartbeat for that amount.

also For cam to garner that type of contract, cam will have to ball out next year, start to finish, which if he did, again I’d have no quarrel with management handing him that contract. 

[WarHeel]

I wouldn’t phrase it as “staying healthy.” More-so “ability to return to form.”

 

If it’s even possible, I’d say that’s the bigger gamble simply based on the financial side of things with so many FA going up for grabs in the next year.

[SBiii]

1 hour ago, micnificent28 said:

(i)  I'm a risk taker myself and an optimist lol. What's 19 million the grand scheme of next season.

(ii)  As far as newton long term I'm sure there are safe guards that a savvy gm can put in place in a contract to protect the team long term and also give Newton the piece of mind he desire.

(i)  Exactly.

(ii)  If Cam is given a contract/extension prior to entering a game next year it won't be worth the paper it is written on....$0.00 guaranteed.

[SBiii]

55 minutes ago, Cpt slay a ho said:

You gamble next year and cam shoulder holds up without limitations, I’d be happy to extend him in a heartbeat for that amount.

also For cam to garner that type of contract, cam will have to ball out next year, start to finish, which if he did, again I’d have no quarrel with management handing him that contract. 

U slayed it....

Kudos.

[AU-panther]

1 hour ago, Cpt slay a ho said:

You gamble next year and cam shoulder holds up without limitations, I’d be happy to extend him in a heartbeat for that amount.

also For cam to garner that type of contract, cam will have to ball out next year, start to finish, which if he did, again I’d have no quarrel with management handing him that contract. 

You are assuming Cam wants to, or will, play on a one year deal.

[Cpt slay a ho]

10 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

You are assuming Cam wants to, or will, play on a one year deal.

I said in my initial post if that happens that’s a different story. 
 

but do we honestly believe cam is leaning towards those options. Because I don’t know too many teams that will trade for Cam AND give him a new contract without him playing some meaningful games first.