Bigger gamble Allen's ascension or Cams ability to stay healthy?

[micnificent28]

Because this is all the comes down to. Yes this is another Cam vs Allen thread. Because this is the most important thing to happen in the franchise's history in my opinion. It seems most are willing to bet Allen can improve his game to levels of starter like success vs Cam staying on the field. To me it seem the easier and more likely scenario is Newton staying healthy. Before the last season or 2 had had been built up as this god who couldnt get hurt now because of the shoulder and the foot injury his body is breaking down. Who is the expert that declares when a person body is simply getting hurt from bad luck vs oh it's over his body is breaking down?

My thoughts on the two are these are 2 completely different injuries that have nothing what so ever to do with each other. Just because your shoulder got hurt and yes that is a huge one and was suppose to take multiple season to get back to sustainable levels doesn't mean your whole body is just giving out. The foot injury as far as I'm concerned is a random freak accident that could have happened to anyone. More bad luck than anything.  Keep him clean and you know what you have with newton on the field.

The bigger gamble is believing allen can win you football games. Yes you can win with him limiting mistakes but so far I haven't seen any evidence he can march you down the field vs good teams and will a team to victory. Yes he has moxy and guts throws a accurate mid range ball,but it lacks zip and deep range accuracy. That isn't the end all be all tho.. my thoughts is that can we be sure this guy can develop into a player worthy of letting a guy whom we know if healthy can will a team to victories is worth keeping over a guy who hasn't shown that ability for.

Seems the common consensus is we know cam cant stay healthy and is more likely to get hurt than allen is likely to throw 3-4 touchdowns and win the big games. I just feel this is a grave mistake one that because were afraid cam will get hurt again we are just going with the lesser talent who hasn't gotten hurt yet. And yes that could happen as well but we lose the bonus of haven a proven winner and generation talent. A true hall of fame game breaker.I feel we are more likely to get from Grier what we get from allen than to assume Allen is a competitor and leader who can will us to victory in the same vein as Newton. Have we been spoiled by the Newton era so much that we think we can win with anybody or have we forgot what it's like to be the browns or dolphins who have been searching for a decade talent for...well decades?  It also feels th media is creating the perfect storm to drive the narrative to get cam out of carolina and onto a bigger market franchise.

[ForJimmy]

I feel like management is most concerned about extending Cam to a large contract based on past injuries and all of the hits he has taken. It’s the last year of his current contract and his agent has to be asking for a extension not wanting to play risking injury (behind our line) without some sort of security. I believe Allen is a capable starter at this point, this might be his peak or it might not. If a new coach comes in, they may want to draft their QB and let Allen play until they are ready. I don’t see it as a Cam vs Allen as much as a Cam vs other options and salary cap ramifications. Cam is my favorite player, but giving him a large deal is risky right now...

[Cpt slay a ho]

Both are gambles, However in nfl history, There’s only a handful of successful undrafted qbs.

I stand firmly by what I’ve been stating, smartest decision barring cam wanting out, ect is to let cam get 100% healthy, sit down with him and let him know due to his recent injury history we are not looking to extend him yet, but he still is the panthers franchise qb when healthy.

in the meantime you develop both Grier and Allen in preparation that cam maybe breaking down or that one of them has the potential to replace cam down the road. 
 

unless you can sell me on what drastic changes 19.1 mil will do for this team I don’t see the benefits in cutting or trading cam unless you’re 1000% sure he’s done 

[micnificent28]

3 minutes ago, Cpt slay a ho said:

Both are gambles, However in nfl history, There’s only a handful of successful undrafted qbs.

I stand firmly by what I’ve been stating, smartest decision barring cam wanting out, ect is to let cam get 100% healthy, sit down with him and let him know due to his recent injury history we are not looking to extend him yet, but he still is the panthers franchise qb when healthy.

in the meantime you develop both Grier and Allen in preparation that cam maybe breaking down or that one of them has the potential to replace cam down the road. 
 

unless you can sell me on what we drastic changes 19.1 mil will do for this team I don’t see the benefits in cutting or trading cam unless you’re 1000% sure he’s done 

This is the right answer any logical person should come 2. What exactly are you gonna do with 19.1 million anyway? Might be enough for 2 players. U make that difference up from say McCoy contract and addision

[Cpt slay a ho]

2 hours ago, micnificent28 said:

This is the right answer any logical person should come 2. What exactly are you gonna do with 19.1 million anyway? Might be enough for 2 players. U make that difference up from say McCoy contract and addision

I’ve been saying this from jump street, no one is selling me yet or attempted to on what better use the 19.1 mil will go to.

im convinced if it’s not towards another qb in the same tier as cam it is only keeping us enough talented to put us out of top qb range when drafting, not to mention wasting seasons of a prime cmc and luke while we fiddle around trying to find a franchise qb or waiting for Allen to become one when history is stacked heavily against him 

[panther4life]

I hate to say it but I think Cams best days are behind him. Allen’s best days may be ahead of him but that still doesn’t mean he has what it takes to be a franchise QB. 
 

Odds are neither one of them are the answer for the long term.

[Davidson Deac II]

23 minutes ago, Cpt slay a ho said:

Both are gambles, However in nfl history, There’s only a handful of successful undrafted qbs.

I stand firmly by what I’ve been stating, smartest decision barring cam wanting out, ect is to let cam get 100% healthy, sit down with him and let him know due to his recent injury history we are not looking to extend him yet, but he still is the panthers franchise qb when healthy.

in the meantime you develop both Grier and Allen in preparation that cam maybe breaking down or that one of them has the potential to replace cam down the road. 
 

unless you can sell me on what drastic changes 19.1 mil will do for this team I don’t see the benefits in cutting or trading cam unless you’re 1000% sure he’s done 

I mostly agree with you, but in fairness, there are only a relative handful of successful qb's period.  Most of them, even the drafted ones, don't even look as good as Allen has.  Even fewer get to the level Cam did.  But I am glad its a decision I don't have to make.  

[Cpt slay a ho]

48 minutes ago, stbugs said:

It would actually be a lot more than $19M if you decide to go with Allen. Not saying which way I'd go although I'm not as optimistic that Cam will ever be close to MVP levels again. That said, you have Allen really cheap for 3 years before he'd get true starter money. With extensions, you are talking a total of $70M or so. That might make people think a bit more than $19M.

That’s speaking long term wise, as far as next year you’re only saving 19.1 mil, I never been in the camp that we NEED mvp cam again, I’ll take the 11 weeks of cam we got in 2018 all day everyday. 
 

also don’t think it would happen but I’m not sure Allen is going to play for peanuts knowing we’ve cut cam and he’s our starter going forward. 
 

to answer op’s question I’d take the 19.1 mil gamble on cam before being for certain Allen can turn into the Kurt Warner’s or warren moons of the world, no knock on him, just big shoes to fill 

[MasterAwesome]

If you think Allen can succeed when surrounded by talent (as he has shown thus far), then you have to account for his dirt-cheap salary which would presumably allow us to build a better team around him. That’s another thing to factor, despite the odd sentiment that $19 million is nothing.

[Cpt slay a ho]

5 minutes ago, Davidson Deac II said:

I mostly agree with you, but in fairness, there are only a relative handful of successful qb's period.  Most of them, even the drafted ones, don't even look as good as Allen has.  Even fewer get to the level Cam did.  But I am glad its a decision I don't have to make.  

I agree hence why I’d exhaust all options before going down that avenue again 

[mav1234]

13 hours ago, micnificent28 said:

Because this is all the comes down to.

I don't really think this the case, though.  The "Cam healthy or Allen ascending, those are your options" is a false dichotomy.    This is because Allen will most likely be on this team either way (cost/contract related), and even if the Panthers do not think he is the "long term future", it does not mean Cam is back, nor does it mean Allen has no value to the team. 

As an example... Let's say the Panthers move on from Cam.  They can do any number of things... including the following:

1) Draft a QB in the 1st round hoping for him to become the franchise guy,

2) Decide to stick with Allen as the starter (whether that means they think about him as a franchise guy or not) without a competition of any kind.

3) Bring in a veteran QB to challenge for the starter job in camp, expressly demoting Allen back to backup.

Only 1 of those 3 involves the Panthers believing Allen is "ascending."  Some of these things will eat some of the money that would have been spent on a year of Cam (and note, Cam will def. want an extension), but unlikely all of it (unless #3 is actually bringing in a veteran, high priced starter).  And so, the team do not need to bet on Allen if they let Cam go.

At the same time, they actually do not need to 'give up on' Allen ascending if they decide to bet on Cam's health.  It is completely possible that the team will think Allen is a future franchise QB, but he would be better served backing Cam up for another 2-3 years.  

Now in the world of betting TODAY that Cam will be healthy or Allen is going to turn into a franchise player, and in the total, complete bubble of those things, I would bet on Cam.  We know Cam's ceiling.  We know what he can do and bring to this team - and so, IMO, do ownership/management.  But I would bet almost nothing.  That is because neither, to me, is likely - and also because I hate betting anything, hahaha.  An interesting thought experiment anyway.  One I am glad I don't need to consider in reality.

edit: FWIW I mostly agree with you RE: Allen being the bigger gamble, but I think he has shown a bit more than you do.  And I am more worried about Cam's injuries since I think that while the foot and shoulder aren't related, I think the shoulder is not something that is really better.  Just a difference in opinions.  I'm more than a bit of a pessimist :P 

[SBiii]

4 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

Now in the world of betting TODAY that Cam will be healthy or Allen is going to turn into a franchise player, and in the total, complete bubble of those things, I would bet on Cam. 

Me too.

I don't think Cam will ever get back to where he was 5-years ago in terms of physical prowess but if he can get healthy, throw without pain, and learn to slide (!!)....

....I think he will have a big year in 2020 and earn himself a whopping contract from Tepper starting in 2021.

One thing I am certain of, if Cam plays NFL football in the 2020 season it will be in a Carolina Panthers uniform.

[SBiii]

34 minutes ago, bull123 said:

It’s not the $19m next year, it’s the$200m for the next contract that’s the risk

The $200M is contingent on Cam balling out next year and proving he is healthy.

Every big NFL contract comes with risks.

You can be assured that of all of the thousands of people in the NFL who have ever had some responsibility to assess and manage risk...

...David Tepper is the, single, best, risk, manager, the, NFL, has, ever, seen. 

[1of10Charnatives]

There are risks to both qb's, and I believe it is a false dichotomy to view this as an either or proposition. I think Allen is on the team next year regardless, and I think whether he is the starter is not a given even if Cam does not return. Obviously if Cam does return Allen is his backup. I think Allen has earned at least that much, but I think anyone who has already decided he is a franchise qb is putting the cart before the horse. I think one of the biggest risks the team could take would be to get rid of Cam because they think Allen is the future, but I don't think that if Cam leaves this will likely be the reason why. I think whether Cam leaves or not has little to do with Allen.

I think one of the biggest risks the franchise faces is extending Cam whether he plays well or not. Let us be frank: When next he walks onto a field for an NFL game, Cam will be on the wrong side of 30 in a sport that is especially not forgiving of the effects age has on the bodies ability to perform and heal. Although he plays a position that is often able to play well past age 30 and high profile examples of this are forefront in people's minds in the form of Brady, Brees, Rothlisberger, Manning and Phillip Rivers, none of these franchise qb's played the game the way Cam has, like a running back. Over the course of his career Cam has both due to his playstyle and the failure for whatever reason of officials to protect him from illegal hits, taken more physical punishment than any qb in the history of the league that has made it to age 30 as a starter. Regardless of what you believe about the current injuries he is recovering from, this does not bode well for his long term prospects going forward, especially if he proves unable to become effective as more of a pure pocket passer.

What this means is that if the team chooses to extend Cam, it will have to pay him in line with his stature as a franchise qb, this likely means a cap figure significantly above his currently modest 20 million. This is an awful lot of money to pay a player you have numerous reasons to suspect may not be able to play a high percentage of the games you are paying him for. Such an extension would carry risk even if the team cut him due to future injuries or poor performance, because of the cap hit. If you thought the pain created by Matt Kalil's effect on our cap was bad, wait til your team is taking a cap hit for a franchise qb who is either no longer with you or consistently sitting on the sidelines.

On the other hand, the team faces an enormous risk with it's fans and it's reputation around the league if it were to allow Newton to walk and he became consistently productive with another team. I view this risk as less likely than the one stated above, but not negligble or small enough to be ignored. I think those are the main risks associated with Cam.

The main risk associated with Allen imo is the risk of deciding he is your franchise qb too soon and being wrong. Allen should not be given anything more than backup qb pay increase this offseason regardless of what happens with Cam, because it is most likely that is what he will be to us next season. Becuase of this, between the two players Allen respresents the one with less risk, but also less potential reward. I doubt anyone thinks his ceiling is as high as Cam's, but his cap number will almost certainly be far smaller, and that matters. If he does wind up being given the chance to start and proves himself, the contract he will earn by doing so will far and away offset having to play next season at backup rates.

I think many posters are discounting or dismissing far too easily and quickly a third possibility: that neither Cam nor Allen is our starter next year. I think if Tepper dismisses Marty and/or Ron, the chances of this happening go up substantially. A new gm and coach would not owe either player nor be attached to either, and most likely would seek to put their stamp on the franchise by installing their own guy.