Mid season grades

[GoPanthers123]

How do you feel about first half of the season? 

We had two close losses to start off, Cam playing injured.  Then we beat everyone except away SF which is clearly a better team this season and one yard short in GB on refs/snow/final play. 

My grades for 5-4 record weighing strength of teams we played.

Offense: B.  CMC was the reason we have an offense but in last 2 games Moore is showing he may be worth a 1st round selection. Allen is solid, improving game to game.  Offensive Line was the main issue on offense in the first half and the reason this grade isn’t higher. 

Defense: C-. Let me split it to say Run defense is an F.  Pass defense is a B,  containing Rogers and  other good QBs.  Getting sweet revenge on Winston in London, probably the best game defense had this season. 

Overall:  B-  Pretty much for 5-4 record that’s the grade.  Some areas are much much worse than others.

 

 

 

 

[Wire Dawg]

I think there are a couple categories you have left off, but I don't strongly disagree with your current evaluation. What would you rank coaching? I think that definitely has a play in the overall team score but I think it should have it's own category. Likewise, special teams? 

Just some thoughts:

Personally I think CMC is definitely bumping up the Offensive grade and without him, it could be the difference between a passing and a failing grade. I would like to see more TE involvement, more WR involvement, I mean every D knows that CMC is getting the ball. He is going to run it up the gut for chunk yardage. Also, he will release into the flat for a dump pass, so they are over loading the box and keeping spies on him. What does that do, it opens up man coverage down field, so if the WR's can get separation, just having the threat of CMC should mean some big passing plays. You expect them to run it on first down, instead try a post route and see what happens, mix it up a bit. 

[GoPanthers123]

26 minutes ago, Wire Dawg said:

I think there are a couple categories you have left off, but I don't strongly disagree with your current evaluation. What would you rank coaching? I think that definitely has a play in the overall team score but I think it should have it's own category. Likewise, special teams? 

Just some thoughts:

Personally I think CMC is definitely bumping up the Offensive grade and without him, it could be the difference between a passing and a failing grade. I would like to see more TE involvement, more WR involvement, I mean every D knows that CMC is getting the ball. He is going to run it up the gut for chunk yardage. Also, he will release into the flat for a dump pass, so they are over loading the box and keeping spies on him. What does that do, it opens up man coverage down field, so if the WR's can get separation, just having the threat of CMC should mean some big passing plays. You expect them to run it on first down, instead try a post route and see what happens, mix it up a bit. 

As for coaching, it was not a good year.   Playing Williams at tackle in SF game gave up 6 sacks in a half, even after Daley clearly showed superior play.  Our back up RBs not utilised much at all, after playing decent in preseason, to share the workload with CMC or even in a returner role.   I feel the coaching holds the talent level back rather than allowing it to properly develop. 

Ron is a coach who is competent enough, but cannot hang with the best.  That is the dilemma because he just straddles the line of good and bad that in the end it is barely passable.

[Wire Dawg]

4 minutes ago, GoPanthers123 said:

As for coaching, it was not a good year.   Playing Williams at tackle in SF game gave up 6 sacks in a half, even after Daley clearly showed superior play.  Our back up RBs not utilised at all, after playing decent in preseason, to share the workload with CMC or even in a returner role.   I feel the coaching holds the talent level back rather than allowing it to properly develop. 

Yeah, that SF game was a collection of errors, that I know everyone watching the game was like what are you doing? I would actually agree getting some RB mix going, I decided to look at the top 6 rushers in the league, and who their second leading rusher was, and with how many yards. Definitely some interesting numbers.

Vikings (7-3) - 

Dalvin Cook - 991 yards
Alexander Mattison - 389 yards

Panthers (5-4) - 

CMC - 989 yards
Bonnafon - 95 yards

Browns (3-6) - 

Chubb - 919 yards
Mayfield - 76 yards

Seattle (8-2) - 

Carson - 853 yards
Wilson - 256 yards

Titans (5-5) - 

Henry - 832 yards
Mariota - 129 yards

Jaguars (4-5) - 

Fournette - 831 yards
Minshew II - 235 yards

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, Wire Dawg said:

I think there are a couple categories you have left off, but I don't strongly disagree with your current evaluation. What would you rank coaching? I think that definitely has a play in the overall team score but I think it should have it's own category. Likewise, special teams? 

Just some thoughts:

Personally I think CMC is definitely bumping up the Offensive grade and without him, it could be the difference between a passing and a failing grade. I would like to see more TE involvement, more WR involvement, I mean every D knows that CMC is getting the ball. He is going to run it up the gut for chunk yardage. Also, he will release into the flat for a dump pass, so they are over loading the box and keeping spies on him. What does that do, it opens up man coverage down field, so if the WR's can get separation, just having the threat of CMC should mean some big passing plays. You expect them to run it on first down, instead try a post route and see what happens, mix it up a bit. 

Yeah, the WR's have been extremely disappointing. But there are some other factors at play, breaking in a relatively inexperienced QB, a QB with average arm strength, and HORRIFIC OL play which is not allowing much time to make a lot of reads. Even so, Samuel has been a huge disappointment. 

[Wire Dawg]

12 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah, the WR's have been extremely disappointing. But there are some other factors at play, breaking in a relatively inexperienced QB, a QB with average arm strength, and HORRIFIC OL play which is not allowing much time to make a lot of reads. Even so, Samuel has been a huge disappointment. 

Eh, so far for the season he is 17th with a Time To Throw of 2.77 so far (Cam is dead last with 2.37). The only 2 QB's with more Time To Throw but with a lower QB rating for the season so far are Josh Allen and Jerod Goff. Also, that isn't factoring in sacks (Panthers have had 36, allowed 29). So yes, I could see the OL could use some beefing up, but you don't have the league second leading rusher with a "HORRIFIC" OL. Having the 3rd lowest QB Rating of those top 17 Time To Throw, tells me either the passes are off, or the WR's aren't producing. 

*It's all about the numbers! 

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Wire Dawg said:

Eh, so far for the season he is 17th with a Time To Throw of 2.77 so far (Cam is dead last with 2.37). The only 2 QB's with more Time To Throw but with a lower QB rating for the season so far are Josh Allen and Jerod Goff. Also, that isn't factoring in sacks (Panthers have had 36, allowed 29). So yes, I could see the OL could use some beefing up, but you don't have the league second leading rusher with a "HORRIFIC" OL. Having the 3rd lowest QB Rating of those top 17 Time To Throw, tells me either the passes are off, or the WR's aren't producing. 

*It's all about the numbers! 

What are the numbers on QB Pressures and wins for the OL as far as ranking?

[Wire Dawg]

13 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

What are the numbers on QB Pressures and wins for the OL as far as ranking?

Those would be factored into Time To Throw, at least for the QB pressures. - https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/

[kungfoodude]

3 minutes ago, Wire Dawg said:

Those would be factored into Time To Throw, at least for the QB pressures. - https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/

Not necessarily. Wins would definitely not be factored. The elusiveness of a QB is also not factored into that stat as well. It's a good stat but it doesn't exactly tell the full story of the pass protection. 

[kungfoodude]

Also, if you look closer at the Time to Throw numbers, some of the lowest guys are QB's who get rid of the ball quickly and that does not correlate to the QB pressures or QB hits. Now, is that a function of their ability to make those reads more quickly and get the ball out? Probably. You could look at OL wins and determine more about that.

[kungfoodude]

Also, some of those stats from the running game can be misleading. Check these out:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019

Near the bottom of the league in the runner being tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. That makes CMC's performances that much more impressive.

[Wire Dawg]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

Also, if you look closer at the Time to Throw numbers, some of the lowest guys are QB's who get rid of the ball quickly and that does not correlate to the QB pressures or QB hits. Now, is that a function of their ability to make those reads more quickly and get the ball out? Probably. You could look at OL wins and determine more about that.

Quicker reads I'd agree with, and/or an ability for the WR's to get separation as well. I'd say those go hand in hand, but at least having time to throw, means the OL isn't complete poo. Also, being able to block for the league second leading rusher is a decent stat. Now, confusing the D to not know when a run is coming or a pass is something the coaches should be doing.

[kungfoodude]

Check this out too(been looking for this and it also hasn't been updated since Nov. 5). But the Pass Block Win Rates for us? 30th in the league.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27584726/nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-rankings-2019-pbwr-prwr-leaderboard#pbwrteam

Edit: I like the PBWR a LOT to determine line play quality because it can eliminate some factors like the elusiveness of a QB.

[Wire Dawg]

3 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Also, some of those stats from the running game can be misleading. Check these out:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019

Near the bottom of the league in the runner being tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. That makes CMC's performances that much more impressive.

I love numbers, thank you, I appreciate that link!!! - I mean, definitely doesn't look like the OL is THAT terrible! ;)