Kyle Allen's game is improving.

[mav1234]

1 hour ago, Krovvy said:

I just don't see it, unless Cam is the starter, and we pay Kyle Allen as a backup. I don't know how you could convince Kyle that he should get paid as a backup when you've traded (or cut) your franchise quarterback for him. The Panthers would have zero leverage. The ERFA tag will only really come into play if Cam is healthy, and Kyle plays very poorly the rest of the season.

The EFRA "tag" exists, and it will determine what Allen makes unless he holds out.  But with only a year of work, it would be incredibly dumb for him to do so (for comparison, look at  Villanueva ... he started 26 games before he got his contract).  Nobody is going to give him a big contract based on a single year, even a decent one.  He has had limited play time, and only a single accrued season by this offseason.

If he plays well, I don't think the team tries to force him to play on his EFRA deal.  But I think that he will take a multiyear deal for (relatively) cheap given the circumstances.

[mav1234]

10 minutes ago, Call Me James said:

Then why promote him to be the starter? 

because Cam was injured, then IRed.  He is now the starter.

Due to a variety of factors, the team is deciding - independent of Allen - if they will continue with Cam.  It is not related to Allen's skills or abilities, but rather, related to what the team thinks Cam can really do in the future.  I do not believe the team is 100% sure what it is doing yet, but I think signs are all pointing in one particular direction.

IMO, Allen will get a deal equivalent to a backup, and even if he starts next year, he'll still need to prove himself (and likely to a new coach / gm too).

[Krovvy]

38 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

The EFRA "tag" exists, and it will determine what Allen makes unless he holds out.  But with only a year of work, it would be incredibly dumb for him to do so (for comparison, look at  Villanueva ... he started 26 games before he got his contract).  Nobody is going to give him a big contract based on a single year, even a decent one.  He has had limited play time, and only a single accrued season by this offseason.

If he plays well, I don't think the team tries to force him to play on his EFRA deal.  But I think that he will take a multiyear deal for (relatively) cheap given the circumstances.

The tag is for so little though. Why wouldn't he hold out? If he plays, and gets hurt, he'll lose so much. If he doesn't play he'll lose out on one season, and then get at the very least a backup contract for another team.

[1of10Charnatives]

1 hour ago, Call Me James said:

Then why promote him to be the starter? 

At any given time there are 32 starting qb’s in the NFL. At least half of them  do not have a skill set sufficient to make them highly sought after amongst the only employers who matter. Being good enough to start in the NFL makes you better than 99.9% of all qb’s, but amongst that elite set half are good enough to start but not better than a majority of their peers. The bottom half of NFL qb’s are replaceable because they are not not orders of magnitude better than the next available alternative.

Thus KA is good enough to start but has not yet demonstrated he is good enough to not be replaced at comparable cost. This is how good a player must be to have any leverage by holding out. Should he continue to improve this could change.

[Call Me James]

7 minutes ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

At any given time there are 32 starting qb’s in the NFL. At least half of them  do not have a skill set sufficient to make them highly sought after amongst the only employers who matter. Being good enough to start in the NFL makes you better than 99.9% of all qb’s, but amongst that elite set half are good enough to start but not better than a majority of their peers. The bottom half of NFL qb’s are replaceable because they are not not orders of magnitude better than the next available alternative.

Thus KA is good enough to start but has not yet demonstrated he is good enough to not be replaced at comparable cost. This is how good a player must be to have any leverage by holding out. Should he continue to improve this could change.

The point was if Kyle Allen has no trade value and Cam Newton does then it's absurd to suggest going forward with Kyle Allen as the starter next season if Cam Newton is healthy. 

Further, if no one believes he has the qualities to push his team over the top any argument about cap space savings is moot. 

[mav1234]

15 minutes ago, Krovvy said:

The tag is for so little though. Why wouldn't he hold out? If he plays, and gets hurt, he'll lose so much. If he doesn't play he'll lose out on one season, and then get at the very least a backup contract for another team.

Right, so holding out means he gets nothing next year, loses a full year, has only a single year under his belt... He will need to take a cheap prove-it deal somewhere - with just backup money anyway.  That is why I think he will sign here for pretty darn cheap (relatively speaking) if he keeps improving.  Because he won't get better than backup money with only a season elsewhere anyway.

2 minutes ago, Call Me James said:

The point was if Kyle Allen has no trade value and Cam Newton does then it's absurd to suggest going forward with Kyle Allen as the starter next season if Cam Newton is healthy. 

Further, if no one believes he has the qualities to push his team over the top any argument about cap space savings is moot. 

I do not believe the team thinks Cam will ever be "healthy Cam" again.  There are extensive discussions on that so I won't rehash it here.

But whether Allen is the starter next year or not, it is likely they will try to give him a contract other than an EFRA (barring a complete breakdown over the next few months) because it can lock him up for cheap for a few years and keep the player happy for still much less than market value.  Even if he isn't any kind of future, he is a good backup.

[1of10Charnatives]

1 hour ago, Krovvy said:

In a world where he'll earn a contract for 5-10x that amount?

There is no evidence I can see that this world exists yet. I don’t see Allen commanding that on the open market. If his play improves, perhaps. But unless you have insider info that some GM is willing to sit in the bushes outside his house eating Cheetos and playing Wish You Were Here on a kazoo, I don’t think anyone is paying him that much based on his performance so far.

[Krovvy]

24 minutes ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

There is no evidence I can see that this world exists yet. I don’t see Allen commanding that on the open market. If his play improves, perhaps. But unless you have insider info that some GM is willing to sit in the bushes outside his house eating Cheetos and playing Wish You Were Here on a kazoo, I don’t think anyone is paying him that much based on his performance so far.

Then why would the Panthers trade or cut Cam? In what scenario does this happen.

[Krovvy]

27 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

Right, so holding out means he gets nothing next year, loses a full year, has only a single year under his belt... He will need to take a cheap prove-it deal somewhere - with just backup money anyway.  That is why I think he will sign here for pretty darn cheap (relatively speaking) if he keeps improving.  Because he won't get better than backup money with only a season elsewhere anyway.

I do not believe the team thinks Cam will ever be "healthy Cam" again.  There are extensive discussions on that so I won't rehash it here.

But whether Allen is the starter next year or not, it is likely they will try to give him a contract other than an EFRA (barring a complete breakdown over the next few months) because it can lock him up for cheap for a few years and keep the player happy for still much less than market value.  Even if he isn't any kind of future, he is a good backup.

I don't think it's going to happen, unless he plays very poorly.

[XOBlackxJokerOX]

Why do people keep calling him a rookie? He's not a rookie. A novice starter, yes. A rookie? No. I really hope he gets in the weight room this off-season. His balls didn't have the zip we're used to seeing. He made quite a few bad decisions but all in all he is improving. Just needs to work on arm strength.

[Jeremy Igo]

26 minutes ago, XOBlackxJokerOX said:

Why do people keep calling him a rookie? He's not a rookie. A novice starter, yes. A rookie? No. I really hope he gets in the weight room this off-season. His balls didn't have the zip we're used to seeing. He made quite a few bad decisions but all in all he is improving. Just needs to work on arm strength.

In terms of football, arm strength has little to do with the weight room. More to do with flexibility and velocity. Many times lifting weights works against that. 

[1of10Charnatives]

10 minutes ago, Jeremy Igo said:

In terms of football, arm strength has little to do with the weight room. More to do with flexibility and velocity. Many times lifting weights works against that. 

True story. I've been known to play a little disc golf every now and then, and the person who could fling a disc the furthest of anybody I've come across was a skinny 17 year old. Raw power often isn't the driver of such things people think it is.

[Jaxel]

11 hours ago, Krovvy said:

The tag is for so little though. Why wouldn't he hold out? If he plays, and gets hurt, he'll lose so much. If he doesn't play he'll lose out on one season, and then get at the very least a backup contract for another team.

I think you are overestimating his leverage. It would be a colossal mistake to hold out for any amount of time.

[XOBlackxJokerOX]

20 hours ago, Jeremy Igo said:

In terms of football, arm strength has little to do with the weight room. More to do with flexibility and velocity. Many times lifting weights works against that. 

Interesting. So is it the way in which he's throwing it?