Getting rid of Cam would be an astronomical mistake

[TheRed]

Letting him walk for nothing at all when we have so many free agents and needs to fill next year would be pretty bad. We're going to need some assets at the very least. Our division isn't exactly going to be a cakewalk the next few years without him. The Saints in particular are winning pretty well and they were without Brees for several weeks.

[MVPccaffrey]

Before?  So what's the last year+ been?

[cbully]

but keeping Rivera would be too. 

[PantherBrew]

Yeah I mean. It seems so obvious. 

[Peppers90 NC]

2015 was a long time ago. But it would suck if we don’t see how he looks next year. But playing on a one year deal is a huge risk for him.

[HPPantherzfan]

1 hour ago, KillaCamNewton said:

-one of the biggest reasons we have never had back to back winning seasons is because we have only had one true franchise QB in 25 years

 

We've had a franchise QB for the last 9 years and still no back to back winning seasons

[1of10Charnatives]

45 minutes ago, KillaCamNewton said:

...before letting him even attempt to get healthy

i understand a lot is gonna ride on whether or not Cam wants to play in a contract year after essentially missing a full season. this is a huge caveat. but here is the reality

 

-franchise QBs dont grow on trees. there have been 14 QBs drafted in the 1st round since Cam's MVP season. How many of them would you actually take and be confident we could win a Super Bowl with? maybe 5? Watson, Mahomes, Wentz, Jackson and Murray? that's about a 35% success rate. how many teams bank of drafting a QB in the first round to turn the franchise around only to have to draft another one in less than 5 years? 

-one of the biggest reasons we have never had back to back winning seasons is because we have only had one true franchise QB in 25 years

-teams that don't have one will hover around 8-10 wins every year with a good defense and strong running game to support them, but they never really have prolonged periods of dominance (basically the entire Delhomme era)

-we really have nothing to lose by playing him next year and seeing if he's still got it - $20 million for a QB is a steal and we don't have to make any commitments until we know exactly what we still have. there is zero risk and a huge potential reward if he plays like he did the first half of 2018

-Cam is 30 years old. he's a genetic freak. this isnt a Kobe Bryant situation where he's in his late 30s and has 20 years of wear and tear on his body that cant be overcome. there is no reason to think he cant still give you another 5 solid years of play after taking almost a year to recover

-the last time we banked on an undrafted young QB to take over the reigns after showing flashes the previous season it ended in a 2-14 season. Kyle Allen has performed admirably, but he also has a lot of limitations and expecting him to come in next year and perform after coaches have had an entire offseason to scout and study him is a huge gamble. 

 

i think we all need to take a deep breath and realize we have physical specimen at QB who was playing at an MVP level just a year ago and is finally getting a chance to fully get his body right. at this point we arent picking in the top 5 this year and getting someone like Tua and again there is no risk to throwing Cam out there next year under a relatively cheap deal. Either Cam returns to early 2018 form and we have enough talent around him to make a legitimate run at a Super Bowl or he blows it and we can move on and decide whether we want to roll with Allen or take a guy like Lawrence or Fields. putting Cam into a 1 year trial run next year is not setting the franchise back 5 years like getting rid of him probably would. the goal is to win Super Bowls, we arent winning one with Kyle Allen this year or next year, the only way we are is with a healthy Cam. why get rid of the only hope you have of it when you dont even know whether or not he can get healthy or have to make any long term decisions past next year? next year is a trial run either way you look at it. It's either Cam's last shot at being the Panthers QB or Kyle Allen's audition for being the long term answer going forward. I think I, and a calculated risk taker like Tepper would much rather see if the aggressive fund has one more rally in it versus the slow and steady account

Thanks for taking the time to put all this together. I  think you present some well reasoned arguments and make some strong points. There is a lot here that I agree with wholeheartedly. I particularly think it's important how you not only remind everyone that franchise qb's don't go on trees and then provide both names people know and quantify that to give concrete context. Strong, well presented point. There are a few places where we differ and I think there are some counterpoints that everyone should keep in mind, so I'll throw those out to hopefully keep the discussion interesting. 

1. You're right that we've only had one franchise qb in 25 years, and this is definitely a reason why it's so hard to have back to back winning seasons, but even though we've had him for about a third of our existence, we still have been unable to put together back to back winning seasons when we did have him, so I don't know that our history as a franchise is a strong argument that a franchise qb is the key to doing so, but it definitely gives you a better chance at worst. I think overpaying your franchise qb and leaving him with a dearth of talent surrounding him can also make your team inconsistent, yet the Panthers seem to have also avoided this pitfall and still are unable to get back to back winning seasons. 

2. I don't agree that there is no risk to playing him next year. I view the risk to retaining and playing him next year in terms of opportunity cost of young high performing players possibly not retained. The cap savings from cutting Cam this offseason would be about 19 million. I think that savings would pretty much guarantee we'd be able to resign both of our most promising young players who are up for contract in Bradberry and Thompson. Whether getting another look at Cam is worth possibly losing one of those two depends heavily on what you think the odds are that Cam can come back and perform, but it's subjective. What's not subjective is that 19 million in cap space in an offseason where we have many key players as free agents definitely represents an opportunity cost. If we bring Cam back next season, it seems almost certain that at least one core player going into his prime will have to be allowed to walk.

3. I think one of the areas where we differ most is in our assessment of what Cam's age and health likely mean. I'm of the opinion based on prior history with pro athletes in general that being a genetic freak in terms of athletic ability does not automatically equate to being a genetic freak in terms of healing and recovery. I think that the present situation where everyone expected Cam was getting close to returning from the lisfranc, only to suddenly find out it basically hadn't healed at all and now he's sitting the rest of the season supports the notion that Cam may not be a genetic freak at healing.

Long term my greater concern is that while franchise qb's are often able to play productively well into their 30's, the ones who do this are pocket passers, not runners. I don't think that I'm going out on a limb to say that between his aggressive style and absolutely horrendous officiating in enforcing rules designed to protect qb's from harm over the course of his career, Cam has taken significantly more physical punishment than any qb ever to make it to 30 in this league as a full time starter. I think it's only reasonable to have a default assumption that this likely makes his career shorter than traditional pocket passers who have taken far less punishment. I think that there is every reason to think he might not be able to give anyone another 5 years of solid play even after taking a whole year off to recover. I want to believe otherwise, because it's been one helluva ride, and the guy is flat out amazeballs when he's able to do his thing. I would love nothing more than for him to defy the odds on this, I just think the odds are not in his favor for the reasons I've stated.

4. I do agree that what we saw during the first half of last season means there's the possibility Cam under Norv's system could be better than he's ever been, and that such a system could extend his career by allowing him to evolve into more of a pocket passer than runner. I just worry that it was too late in coming and his current injuries may prove too damaging to his ability either to stay on the field or be effective when there. I think the decision of whether to bring him back next year is an enormous one, and while I tend to agree it might be worth it because franchise qb's absolutely do not grow on trees, so running the risk of letting the one go that we have before we're sure he can no longer do it is one that should be avoided if possible, I also think we should prepare ourselves for the strong possibility his injuries may prove insurmountable or that Tepper may prove unwilling to go that route and may cut or release him this offseason. 

At the end of the day nothing would hurt worse than to watch a recovered Cam go and light it up for some other team while we flounder, it's just that that risk has to be weighed against a realistic assessment of the odds he can return and be effective, which I unfortunately don't regard as outstanding, as well as the players we'd likely have to let walk in order to bring him back next year and see. Either way, I'm glad I don't have to make that decision, and frankly I hope that Tepper does not leave it to Marty and Rivera, because I think they will be unable to make a dispassionate judgement, and that is what their jobs often call for.

[TheRed]

So much of this also depends on the trajectory of our season with many games left to play.

If we play well enough to finish with a winning record and possibly a playoff spot, that would undoubtedly be a big boost for next year and give us much needed confidence in retaining/bringing in free agents.

But if we crash back down to earth or see another loss like against San Fran, that's going to back us into a corner as added negativity with the uncertainty surrounding Cam. As admirable as Kyle Allen has played, if we don't finish the season strong, we may have difficulty bringing in key free agents without the presence of a player like Newton. If you think having him in uniform doesn't play some kind of part in guys deciding to sign here you are lying to yourself. That's no knock against Allen or Grier or whoever. It's just reality from a football standpoint.

[GoobyPls]

If Cam is healthy this organization will rue the day, if they let him go. Last season was the first time since his rookie season Cam had legit weapons and he was on pace for 36 total TD with around 4400 yards, so if he goes to a bears team with that coach and those weapons those numbers will get better,

[1of10Charnatives]

5 minutes ago, TheRed said:

So much of this also depends on the trajectory of our season with many games left to play.

If we play well enough to finish with a winning record and possibly a playoff spot, that would undoubtedly be a big boost for next year and give us much needed confidence in retaining/bringing in free agents.

But if we crash back down to earth or see another loss like against San Fran, that's going to back us into a corner as added negativity with the uncertainty surrounding Cam. As admirable as Kyle Allen has played, if we don't finish the season strong, we may have difficulty bringing in key free agents without the presence of a player like Newton. If you think having him in uniform doesn't play some kind of part in guys deciding to sign here you are lying to yourself. That's no knock against Allen or Grier or whoever. It's just reality from a football standpoint.

I think this is a legit point about attracting free agents. I wouldn't swear on a stack of bibles, but I think one of the things McCoy said about his reasons for signing with us included wanting to play with Cam instead of against him after years of having to deal with him as a divisonal rival. I think it's possible that CMC is growing in stature to act as a replacement to Cam in that kind of prestige. I also am not super worried about attracting free agents because it tends to be less of this franchises's MO. McCoy himself was more the exception rather than the rule if you ask me, born of an unusual situation and opportunity that made it a good fit for both sides. But I agree completely that whatever Allen does the rest of the season, nobody is coming to Carolina just to play with him. They *might* do it to play with CMC, but that's not a given the way Cam's presence was.

I tend to think we're not gonna completely crash and burn the rest of the season, I just think our odds of making the playoffs in a stacked NFC look a little daunting. I could see us finishing 9-7 and being just on the outside looking in. If you held a gun to my head and demanded a prediction, this is what you'd get.

[hepcat]

If the Panthers let Cam Newton go, it will be for good reason. They know how important he is to the franchise and everything he has done not only on the field, but more importantly off of it. He has brought millions of new fans tot he fanbase and his charitable work is outstanding. 

Cam has endured so many injuries and has missed so much time at this point that I strongly doubt we see a Peyton Manning like resurgence elsewhere. His throwing shoulder has never been the same since the injury in late 2016 and hasn't improved. He hasn't been able to fully practice in years. The foot injury aside, I think that would be the biggest reason. I wish that injury never happened so much.

[ellis]

I’m trying to stay focused on the actual injuries. Neither are connected. One happened in the pocket courtesy of Watt’s helmet. The other injury, the most recent one, was also within the pocket. Some have said Cam should’ve thrown the ball away. Well, when you’re standing in the pocket, and you throw the ball away, it’s intentional grounding. Also, that was a fairly routine pocket scramble for QB1. 

So, here’s my thinking: the shoulder has gotten a nice extended vacation. They resolved this foot issue by shutting him down and moving forward with a full recovery. From a health perspective, I’m not overly worried about him. 
 

As for the contractual/financial end of it, you have some decisions to make here over the next couple of years. I don’t think the team really knows what they want to do at this point, nor should they. And if that’s the case, I’m certainly not in any position to provide analysis on what exactly I would do. It’s early yet, and there still a considerable stretch of football left this season to see how far they can go. 

[1of10Charnatives]

8 minutes ago, GoobyPls said:

If Cam is healthy this organization will rue the day, if they let him go. Last season was the first time since his rookie season Cam had legit weapons and he was on pace for 36 total TD with around 4400 yards, so if he goes to a bears team with that coach and those weapons those numbers will get better,

This more than anything is what makes me want to bring him back and see what he has despite my pessimism about the odds he'll be able to get healthy and stay that way. I think the odds are not in his favor, but what we saw first half of last season makes me feel like even if the odds are a little long, it might still be worth it to see, even if the 19 million cap cost means having to let someone like Shaq walk. Such a tough call.

[Wolfpack352]

1 hour ago, uncfan888 said:

It's not exactly a guarantee that we find another great QB. They don't just grow on trees

Right....BUT.....they can be found or discovered.  Playing time behind a decent or great O-line will allow QB to showcase their skills.