Kyle Allen's 4 games vs Cam's 8 with new OC Norv

[MasterAwesome]

56 minutes ago, ncfan said:

It was to point out Cam's production when healthy under Norv 

Look Allen has been good

But people jump real quick to say Allen should start under 100% Cam. Several had said he has looked better than 2015 Cam

Prior to last year, it was a whole different scheme, under a whole different coach.  

So threw the numbers to shows 100% Cam was better than Allen.  This is not a Bash on Allen or his future.

Cam has been one of the top QBs in the league, there is a reason why there was a tweet saying almost a Third of the league is interested in trading for him.  He was putting up great numbers etc in this same offense 

Really? Lol I haven’t seen that, but if true, that’s pretty ridiculous.

If you’re arguing for this year, then I’d agree. But if you’re extending this discussion to beyond simply the current year, then you have to consider other factors like salary, age, potential, etc.

Also I wouldn’t necessarily draw a direct correlation between “interest” and “ability”...otherwise you could argue things like Matt Kalil was a capable LT. It’s pretty reasonable to think that some desperate QB-needy teams would express interest in trading for a talent like Cam, but that’d surely be contingent upon at least a physical.

[MasterAwesome]

51 minutes ago, Varking said:

I don’t think the thread showed they have nearly identical production...

Over 16 games

Allen

3628.8 total yards

65.5% completions

28 total TDs

0 INT

24 Fumbles

 

Cam

4448 total yards

67.3% completions

38 total TDs

8 INTs

16 Fumbles

 

800 more yards and 10 more touchdowns is a massive difference if you spread these out over 16 games when comparing the stats shared here. 

 

That additional production accounted for in your extrapolation is almost entirely from Cam’s rushing...which I already addressed in my post. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a 30-31 year old Cam to rush for 650ish yards per season and continue to be used as a goal-line battering ram, directly coming off of an ankle injury.

[Varking]

1 minute ago, MasterAwesome said:

That additional production accounted for in your extrapolation is almost entirely from Cam’s rushing...which I already addressed in my post. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a 30-31 year old Cam to rush for 650ish yards per season and continue to be used as a goal-line battering ram, directly coming off of an ankle injury.

Then there is no point comparing stats at all because it’s not likely Allen continues to not throw any INTs. Just like it’s not likely he continues to fumble like no other players. I just literally compared the stats to the guy who said it was virtually the same. It wasn’t virtually the same. 

[Ja Rhule]

2 hours ago, gtanaka said:

Tell that to Thomas davis

I take it you are a young kid and don’t 20s vs. 30s body recovery.

[MasterAwesome]

34 minutes ago, Varking said:

Then there is no point comparing stats at all because it’s not likely Allen continues to not throw any INTs. Just like it’s not likely he continues to fumble like no other players. I just literally compared the stats to the guy who said it was virtually the same. It wasn’t virtually the same. 

Are stats an all-or-nothing thing to you?  You just either accept everything at face value or none of it all?  You just provided an example yourself of a particular statistic that can be misleading or that cannot reasonably be extrapolated: the Interceptions/Fumbles.  There is reason to believe that a quarterback will maintain his average of ~230-240 yards per game passing, but not that he will throw 0 interceptions over the course of a season.  That's why critical thinking is important.  I gave a reason as to why I doubt that his ~40 rushing yards per game will be maintained as he ages and overcomes his injury.  Do you disagree?  You think we will continue to run him as much as before?

And yes, I was that guy who said the stats were virtually the same...except for the rushing stats...and then you basically just said the exact same thing, so I'm still not sure what you are getting at. 

[Varking]

8 hours ago, MasterAwesome said:

Are stats an all-or-nothing thing to you?  You just either accept everything at face value or none of it all?  You just provided an example yourself of a particular statistic that can be misleading or that cannot reasonably be extrapolated: the Interceptions/Fumbles.  There is reason to believe that a quarterback will maintain his average of ~230-240 yards per game passing, but not that he will throw 0 interceptions over the course of a season.  That's why critical thinking is important.  I gave a reason as to why I doubt that his ~40 rushing yards per game will be maintained as he ages and overcomes his injury.  Do you disagree?  You think we will continue to run him as much as before?

And yes, I was that guy who said the stats were virtually the same...except for the rushing stats...and then you basically just said the exact same thing, so I'm still not sure what you are getting at. 

Yes I believe Cam if he comes back will continue to run to a clip of 25+ yards a game to extend drives and open things up downfield. 

[CPF4LIFE]

On 10/14/2019 at 8:58 PM, Ivan The Awesome said:

First off. I quoted the wrong person that resposne was actually not for you 

 

Secondly I don't hate Cam at all. I was his biggest supporter for years. I've been on the other side of the argument. It's tiresome to see the same result year after year. He regressed a lot and he's frankly hit his ceiling. Y'all talk about potential but If you don't reach that potential then it's an empty trait. Cam can get better and has the ability to do so but he does not. He throws off his back foot throws ints like a mofo, doesn't make the best decisions and hasn't really carried this team.since 2015. It's asinine to live back in 2015. It's 2019 and he's been more injured than not. 

He carried us to the damn playoffs just the year before  last with no freaking receivers to throw too and matt khalil at left tackle. Not to mention that was probably the worst defense under rivera since he has been coach. Jesus, This selective memory thing around here is serious. 

 

 

[mav1234]

I think it is really interesting to look at Cam's first four games last year relative to Allen's.  Although I do think the offense functioned differently under Cam, it is strikingly similar. 

Cam:

220.75 passing ypg

65.3 comp %

7/3 TD/Int

40 rushing ypg

3 rushing TDs

2 fumbles

Team PPG: 26

 

Allen through these 4 games

225.3 passing ypg

65.5 comp %

7/0 TD/int

1.5 rushing ypg

0 rushing TDs

6 fumbles

Team PPG: 31.25

*Note: CMC had 0 rushing TDs in Cam's 4 games here, but 5 in Allen's 4.  He averaged 82 rushing yards in Cam's 4 games, 113 in Allen's. 52 receiving yards per game for Cam, 48 for Allen.  I think it is worth noting that when you are dealing with someone as versatile as Cam, it is very hard to compare him in a vacuum to a different kind of QB because he is often used in designed runs and even his scrambles contribute to a greater run/pass balance.  This is not to take away from Cam, and nor would I suggest Cam is the only / main reason for CMC's difference in stats, but he definitely does take up some designed run plays.  Not a ton though.

I've said before and I'll keep saying Cam gives us the better chance to win now and should be starting when healthy, but it is absolutely striking to me how similar their starts have been in some respects.