How Much Pressure is Rivera Under?

[panthers55]

Everyone on the team is on the hot seat including many of the players. Look at the number of players who will become free agents at the end of  2019 and 2020 including many starters. If we don't make the playoffs this year the team will look very different in the next two years. I think we are definitely going to be a playoff team this year though. 

[panthers55]

12 hours ago, TheRed said:

Still no consecutive winning seasons.

The Panthers are the only team in NFL history to nearly go undefeated and not even sniff the postseason the following year. I'm sorry if coach of the year doesn't fluff that up.

The talent isn't an issue. The ability isn't the issue. It's the consistency in putting away games. We're eight years in. He shouldn't still be standing on the sideline watching his team losing games the same way by trying not to lose. If there is still a lingering question, that is absolutely it, and he must show he has learned from losing in the past.

The injury excuse will not fly for 2019.

That was on Gettleman for dismantling the secondary and screwing with a winning formula. It was a huge reason he was fired. And talent has been a huge issue. It is funny that you would say talent isn't the issue yet complain that Cam hasn't been given the weapons to succeed. You can't have it both ways 

[Khyber53]

He's not really under pressure at all. He has one of the more stable coaching positions in the league.

Why? It's pretty straightforward.

He does get the team into the playoffs at least 50 % of the time. Compare that to teams like the Cowboys, Raiders, Dolphins, Redskins, Giants, Ravens, Vikings, Bears, Falcons, Texans, Cardinals, Titans and Colts. Those teams always get a lot of airtime, but they are either in coaching carousels or have coaches that always underperform, even below our 50 percent playoff rate. Heck, just look at the perennial "they're loaded and ready to roll" Cowboys for an example of a long-tenured coach that has managed the spin the wheels of his team over the years gaining no traction. How about those Redskins? Heck, how about that NFC East all together? Sure the Eagles are on a bit of a hot streak, but their recipe of losing their franchise QB just in the nick of the time to save the season thing can't go on forever. Regularly imploding Giants anyone?

Let's not even get to the eternally losing teams that don't get a lot of coverage like the Jags (boy that one season really was a fluke), the Browns, the Bengals, the Lions, the Bills, the Bucs. Man, Rivera at least gives the team a shot and a level of respectability.

Heck, even the Chargers are in worse straights, always the bridesmaids and never the bride, even with a supposedly superstar QB. Man, those fans really have a reason to shout about underperforming coaches.

Also, Rivera is a player's coach. That's good for a franchise and good for PR. 

Lastly, and this gets said again and again: You can't just go out and get a decent head coach nowadays. The pool is too shallow as there are only about four coaching trees in the pros that turn out guys who can even do the job badly. And while new branches sprout on those trees each year, the leaves are thinning and the products are showing signs of idea fatigue. College? It's pretty much a completely different game down there in Pro League B. A lot of great college coaches just couldn't compete without 105 players on the roster, no salary cap, booster club "donations", super spread offenses and easier reception rules. Heck, they can even keep all the players on campus, never have to hear at practice "the player's union says we don't have to wear pads today" or worry about some dude wrapping his Bentley around a lightpost (maybe a booster club member's but not technically the actual players).

Ron is secure because he's a good coach, he produces competitive teams even in injury plagued years (sadly, competitive doesn't mean winning seasons, though), hits the playoffs fairly regularly and even managed to get what should have been an injury-bitten team to an almost undefeated season and the Super Bowl. Among current NFL HCs, there are 12 Superb Owl wins and six of those are by Bill Belichick. Nine losses in the Superb Owl are also represented among the current HCs, with three of those being  Belichick's as well. One win and one loss in the big dance are held by Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh. The remaining five wins and losses are scattered throughout the league. In short, of the 21 Superb Owl appearances as HCs by current HCs that's only 10 to share among the 30 teams that aren't NE or Pittsburgh. And two of those, by Gruden and Reid were done well over a decade ago with teams they haven't served in a looong time. The other eight coaches are all steady in their jobs and would be hot candidates if they ever got out there.

Well, what about head coaches in the league who made it to the Superb Owl as coordinators and are now HCs? Only four HCs in the league served as OCs or DCs for Superb Owl winning teams for five total wins (Matt Patricia of Detroit has two wins with the Patriots). Patricia was also a losing coordinator for two Superb Owls with NE. Nine others have served as losing coordinators on championship teams. (Rivera is one of those from his time as Chicago's DC). Buffalo's HC was Ron Rivera's DC during our 2015 Superb Owl run.

That's a lot of numbers, but it shows how thin the pool of championship level candidates there are for head coaching jobs in this league. And the transition from college HC to NFL HC directly isn't very appealing based on recent histories. 

Ron isn't on the hot seat right now and would probably require three, maybe four bad seasons in a row before he was severely in trouble. In the end, no matter the gut feeling, Rivera's record isn't Belichickian, but no one else's is either. In that environment, you try and keep the coach you have as he is a better value than any replacements on the horizon. 

But hey, what do I know?

[Baskinridge]

13 hours ago, musicman said:

He's won Coach of the Year twice. 2X

lol

[blackcat]

Beaten into the ground, but we only go as far as Cam's shoulder goes.  That said, a healthy Cam and no playoffs should get RR fired.

[KB_fan]

15 hours ago, Seltzer said:

don't think Rivera is done coaching in the NFL regardless of what happens this season, but I do think he is done in Carolina should they not make the playoffs.

What do you guys think?

Solid analysis. I agree.

[TheRed]

1 hour ago, panthers55 said:

And talent has been a huge issue. It is funny that you would say talent isn't the issue yet complain that Cam hasn't been given the weapons to succeed.

I could have been more clear, but the point I made about talent was in terms of what we have added for 2019. We are not devoid of talent by any means this season. If you want to argue I get that, but this is a very poor way to go about it.

Rivera has as much to prove as anyone else. Especially considering how out of their depth our defensive staff seemed to be in 2018. That's entirely on the head coach, even moreso one that has had nearly a decade with the team.

[KB_fan]

53 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

That's a lot of numbers, but it shows how thin the pool of championship level candidates there are for head coaching jobs in this league. An

Loved this analysis! Thanks for the data!

[TheRed]

It's amusing seeing the flailing in defense of Rivera in June.

If it's September and he's trying to walk off the field before halftime with all three timeouts in his pocket when we could have tried to put points on the board, you know damn well what the gameday thread is going to look like. Safe to say those preaching patience now will be popping a blood vessel.

[KB_fan]

I do agree with whoever commented that we've got to see the defense return to top form.  Tepper has commented that he believes Ron is one of the best defensive minds in the game.  With Ron basically running the D, the success or failure of the D lands on Ron's shoulders. So there could be some chance that even with a successful season (playoffs), if the D stinks, Ron could be gone.

But, I'm encouraged. Ron seems to be refocused and energized by taking over the D. Barring critical injuries, I think this could be a really fun season.

[rayzor]

1 hour ago, Dex said:

If we can't get to the conference championship game with the roster we've got, it's time to go another direction with leadership. Bar should be set high.

[Dex]

1 minute ago, rayzor said:

If we can't get to the conference championship game with the roster we've got, it's time to go another direction with leadership. Bar should be set high.

We need to beat the Saints (no small task) first. Even in 2015 with MVP Cam the Saints were a problem. If we can take the South and make the playoffs then Rivera stays. Slow ya roll youngin'.

[panthers55]

15 minutes ago, TheRed said:

I could have been more clear, but the point I made about talent was in terms of what we have added for 2019. We are not devoid of talent by any means this season. If you want to argue I get that, but this is a very poor way to go about it.

Rivera has as much to prove as anyone else. Especially considering how out of their depth our defensive staff seemed to be in 2018. That's entirely on the head coach, even moreso one that has had nearly a decade with the team.

Agree that we might have the most talented roster we have had in recent memory for sure. And you are right everyone has a lot to prove including the coaches.  Is it all on Rivera? Yes in the sense that he is the head coach and the buck stops there regarding coaching. But is really all on him? Only if he is on field actually playing. He can get folks ready to perform but players actually have to perform and do their job as well. Honestly there will be enough blame to go around for everyone if we don't go deep in the playoffs.

[hepcat]

Rivera probably has 2 seasons to make a serious Superbowl run. Cam and Ron's contracts both end after the 2020 season. I can't see both of them being with the team if the Panthers fail to make a playoff run in one of the next two seasons.

What really concerns me is that coaching lost games for the Panthers last season. Yes, Cam had a shoulder injury, but he still had the team moving the ball down the field regularly until the final couple weeks of the season. I haven't forgotten the pathetic defensive lapses the team endured during a 7 game losing streak that included one of the worst blowout losses in franchise history. I knew the team was in trouble when all Rivera had to say after that Steelers loss was "poo Happens". He can't use that excuse again. If the team goes through another late season collapse I think it's really hard to keep him.

The points from @Khyber53 about good coaches being hard to find is valid. And I think that's why Rivera still has a job with the Panthers this season and probably next season. But after that....we'll see.