A statistical look at how average draft picks work out

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Lumps said:

Just statistic for starting.

Doesn’t mean they should be starting or are doing well at it.

Not saying there isn’t any evidence here, just pointing it out.

Amini started...Norwell didn’t.

The difference is that you are taking a sample size of 2 versus the sample size of 210 in that article. The point being that "on average" the round that players are drafted has a significant correlation to their long term success by most metrics. Length of career, average games started, reaching Pro-Bowl/All-Pro status, etc. That isn't the first article pretty much doing a statistical analysis that comes up with similar results. 

There is nothing surprising about that. The general consensus about most players is going to be fairly accurate and that is going to be reflected in where they get drafted. Outliers will exist but "on average" this will be the case.

[carpanfan96]

There's some great articles on draft success rate and position rate. 

 

Here

Here

[kungfoodude]

8 minutes ago, carpanfan96 said:

There's some great articles on draft success rate and position rate. 

 

Here

Here

Yep. Not surprising at all.

[carpanfan96]

2 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Yep. Not surprising at all.

Yea, you can make a cut off at 15 back to the last pick of round 3 and the odds of a rookie starter is like 20% roughly. From 15-64 and your looking at 30%. Probowl around 13% for 15-64. 

 

Basically anything after the top 5 in the first round and you have a chance of getting immediate impact about 50% of the time and getting great multi year starter/probowl player is in the 20% range. 

 

Really gives you an idea of how shockingly hard is to be a GM or scout in the NFL. Drafting is 100% a crapshoot the majority of the time. 

[jtm]

Interesting: a couple years ago the stats were 75%, 50%, 25% respectively for the first three rounds. After 3rd round the numbers fell off a cliff. 

I’d love to know what has changed and perhaps there is deeper talent coming out now. 

[carpanfan96]

35 minutes ago, jtm said:

Interesting: a couple years ago the stats were 75%, 50%, 25% respectively for the first three rounds. After 3rd round the numbers fell off a cliff. 

I’d love to know what has changed and perhaps there is deeper talent coming out now. 

This is just one season, if you look at averages over the last 10 years or 5 years the numbers stabilize and return to norms. However the 75% is only for top 5, after that the first round is around 54% or so. 2nd round is around 30%, 3rd round is around 15% and it goes into the low teens after that.