A statistical look at how average draft picks work out

[Mr. Scot]

2 minutes ago, Doc Holiday said:

This is not just a reply to this post only, but you’re clearly sour about the Trade. 

 The question about whether the trade was worth it or not cannot be answered today.  But simply if Little works out to be a starter or not, which I think he will be. If he is a starter the trade was 100% worth it, if he is a bust it wasn’t. It’s that simple.

you can scream it till you’re blue in the face that it was a terrible trade but right now we simply don’t know.

I’ve seen several people state on here that they loved the player but hate the trade, you can’t have it both ways,  there was a run on Offensive linemen when we made the trade.  I don’t care what you or anyone thinks about the chances of him being there at 47, the run on the OL proves he wasn’t going to be and the trade was the right move to get him.

I've closely followed every draft by the Panthers since 2004, there have been plenty of trades and picks that I had issues with, this isn’t one of them.

To be fair, if you gave up a pick or picks to move up for a player who probably would have been there anyway even if you hadn't, that's a bad move even if that player does turn out to be good.

I agree there will be a lot less regret if he does turn out to be a solid player, but objectively speaking that's still a mistake.

[Khyber53]

11 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I hope it works out, but Hurney's already been fired by this organization once and I can't recall a single time hes ever traded up for a player when it actually has worked out. Everette Brown, Armanti Edwards, Jeff Otah were all trade ups. He was trying to trade up for Jimmy Clausen. 

It seems that Hurney has learned quite a bit over the intervening years, or maybe, just maybe he wasn't as bad as we thought. 

Look, I have no idea what happened with Everette Brown except that it was a major swing and a miss. On the Armanti Edwards deal, we should have worked him as a backup QB rather than a WR because the transition never worked and Lord, he couldn't have been worse than Jimmy Clausen. Jeff Otah is one you have to give a pass to Hurney on because Otah could have, should have been a career road grader for us on the right side of the line, but one knee injury can just kill a big guy. 

And then, there's Jimmy Clausen. This was the late night infomercial purchase of Hurney's career. Somehow the crazy salespitch worked and we bought the SlapChop of college QBs. To this day, I can just remember watching Jimmy run for his life on almost every play, I can just about hear him screaming like a little girl as DEs chased him around the field. Like I said, we should have at least used Armanti there, he would have had a chance of outrunning someone.

[Doc Holiday]

8 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

To be fair, if you gave up a pick or picks to move up for a player who probably would have been there anyway even if you hadn't, that's a bad move even if that player does turn out to be good.

I agree there will be a lot less regret if he does turn out to be a solid player, but objectively speaking that's still a mistake.

You should know the value of a an anchor LT as much as anyone. And you more so than even me understand how the draft works and how picks start to snowball into runs on certain positions, like DL in the first this year and OL at the start of the second this year. 

Little, arguably the best pure pass protection tackle in the Draft, wasn’t gonna be on the board after the run had finished.

 In my opinion, I understand the trade and it’s necessity.  And if Greg Little becomes the LT we hope he will be it’s 100% worth it.

 But just as I mentioned before, we will not know the value of the move until probably half way through this season at the earliest.

so now we wait and see.

[SmokinwithWilly]

1 hour ago, Khyber53 said:

It seems that Hurney has learned quite a bit over the intervening years, or maybe, just maybe he wasn't as bad as we thought. 

Look, I have no idea what happened with Everette Brown except that it was a major swing and a miss. On the Armanti Edwards deal, we should have worked him as a backup QB rather than a WR because the transition never worked and Lord, he couldn't have been worse than Jimmy Clausen. Jeff Otah is one you have to give a pass to Hurney on because Otah could have, should have been a career road grader for us on the right side of the line, but one knee injury can just kill a big guy. 

And then, there's Jimmy Clausen. This was the late night infomercial purchase of Hurney's career. Somehow the crazy salespitch worked and we bought the SlapChop of college QBs. To this day, I can just remember watching Jimmy run for his life on almost every play, I can just about hear him screaming like a little girl as DEs chased him around the field. Like I said, we should have at least used Armanti there, he would have had a chance of outrunning someone.

It's been quite a while since that draft but I remember at the time Otahs knees were already a concern before he was drafted. I liked the guy as a pick but was concerned, and unfortunately it was justified. 

[thefuzz]

First 4 rounds...hold on to the picks.

 

After that...I'm trading for good vets on team friendly deals.  Were I the GM, you would get used to hearing that the "Panthers have traded a 5th round draft selection for *insert vets name with 2/3 years left on his current contract*"

[MHS831]

What struck me---nearly 1 in 7 of the starters are undrafted.  Now, that is a much larger pool of talent from which to choose, but it is incredible to think that there are more undrafted starters in the league than third rounders. ....These players have been given agility, speed, and strength tests.  Their intelligence has been tested and they have been interviewed.   They have miles of footage that shows them doing the same job on the college level.  Still, we can only pick 1 player in every draft that is likely to be a long-term starter?  Everyone one else is either a coin toss or long shot? 

[kungfoodude]

15 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

There's a reason why there's such a focus on top 100 picks and that's why. I didn't realize the drop-off was this drastic, but this is why I didn't want to trade one of our 3rds to move up.

Yeah, there have been much, much better statistical breakdowns than this one(I think 538 may have done one) and it was very clear that being drafted higher had a fairly strong correlation to the success of a player, on average. Being a higher rated HS recruit also had some correlation. 

Nothing too surprising about that. The best talent is typically the best.

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, thefuzz said:

First 4 rounds...hold on to the picks.

 

After that...I'm trading for good vets on team friendly deals.  Were I the GM, you would get used to hearing that the "Panthers have traded a 5th round draft selection for *insert vets name with 2/3 years left on his current contract*"

4th-7th rounders still serve the purpose of training camp bodies and depth guys. Although rarely do any of them make a significant impact, there is no reason to pass on the opportunity to grab some very cheap roster spot fillers.

[thefuzz]

34 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

4th-7th rounders still serve the purpose of training camp bodies and depth guys. Although rarely do any of them make a significant impact, there is no reason to pass on the opportunity to grab some very cheap roster spot fillers.

Not saying that I would send off every 5-7, just saying that I wouldn't hesitate to deal those, and and occasional 4th for established vets you know can play or backup a starter that has a couple or 3 years left on their deal.

I see too many GM's hold onto those picks.  Philly just got Jordan Howard for a 2020 6th, and Dallas got Robert Quinn for a 2020 6th, DeSean Jackson for a 6th, Osemele for a 5th with no dead money left on his deal.

 

[panthers55]

17 hours ago, Doc Holiday said:

In this article I found a interesting statistic.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#16358d1e7495

 

this is an excellent break down of NFL Starters, of the 2010 draftees 15% are current starters, the rest of the numbers are the breakdowns by the round they were drafted.

by this first round talents have a 67.5% chance of succeeding, Rounds 2 and 3 have nearly equal chances of starting at 33.8% and 36.3 percent. and after round 3 its pretty much pure luck.

edit:

i will say this doesn’t account for different draft pools, I’d love to see a year by year breakdown if anyone can find it, this is just 2010.

Not all Draft Pools are equal, like how last year it was a QB draft and this year was DL draft. A multi- year sample size would yield more accurate results.

Actually it doesn't say that 1st rounders have a 67% of succeeding. It says what percentage of games they started. Which actually speaks to a number of things. First rounders stay in the league longer and start more even if they aren't good because there is more money and a higher draft pick already invested in them. So teams give high rounders a greater chance to succeed as they get more coaching and support. Guys in later rounds or UDFAs have to do well out the gate as they are easily replaced.

[kungfoodude]

41 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

Not saying that I would send off every 5-7, just saying that I wouldn't hesitate to deal those, and and occasional 4th for established vets you know can play or backup a starter that has a couple or 3 years left on their deal.

 I see too many GM's hold onto those picks.  Philly just got Jordan Howard for a 2020 6th, and Dallas got Robert Quinn for a 2020 6th, DeSean Jackson for a 6th, Osemele for a 5th with no dead money left on his deal.

  

That's fine but the cap ramifications of such moves are significant. If you are trading for a starter or immediate contributor(that you can afford) then those are absolutely expendable. If you are just trading for the sake of getting a veteran player, that will likely cost quite a bit in the long run. 

Quinn and Osemele would be nice to add but not at the salary cap cost. 

[thefuzz]

25 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

That's fine but the cap ramifications of such moves are significant. If you are trading for a starter or immediate contributor(that you can afford) then those are absolutely expendable. If you are just trading for the sake of getting a veteran player, that will likely cost quite a bit in the long run. 

Quinn and Osemele would be nice to add but not at the salary cap cost. 

I mean....I guess.  If we didn't land Burns, and thought that Quinn still had something in the tank, what's a 6th for a player that can be cut with zero cap ramifications?

Those picks would be used to fill a significant hole in the roster with a player you know can play.

Again, I'm not saying every pick, or every year, but here and there if a player comes available that you covet and need?  Hell yea ship off that late round pick.

[kungfoodude]

8 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

 I mean....I guess.  If we didn't land Burns, and thought that Quinn still had something in the tank, what's a 6th for a player that can be cut with zero cap ramifications?

 Those picks would be used to fill a significant hole in the roster with a player you know can play.

 Again, I'm not saying every pick, or every year, but here and there if a player comes available that you covet and need?  Hell yea ship off that late round pick.

Oh, I don't disagree. Quinn wouldn't have even been a bad pick up because his $8 mil cap figure disappears next year. 

I honestly don't know why we don't make those kind of trades more often.

[Lumps]

Just statistic for starting.

Doesn’t mean they should be starting or are doing well at it.

Not saying there isn’t any evidence here, just pointing it out.

Amini started...Norwell didn’t.