Rewatching Will Grier at the Senior Bowl

[trueblade]

I was critical of the Grier pick. This was solely based on my observations during the Senior Bowl. A poster suggested I re-watch the game. I took them up on their offer. I’m not a scout by any stretch. I’m a JAG (just a guy) whose watched football for 25+ years. If you'd like to watch the Senior Bowl and offer your own takes on the plays below, its available on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNVKu7A4Z1g. Grier only plays the 1st quarter.

 

Let me start with this: "Grier led the South to a 9-0 lead." This is true, however; re-watching the game shows both drives were aided by penalties e and a strong running attack lead by Temple back Ryquell Armstead (drafted in the 5th round by Jacksonville). 

Next up, Grier only attempted 11 passes. While his official stat line was 4/8, 3 pass plays ended in penalties which didn't go to his stats. This isn't a big enough sample size to get a solid feel for the player, and basing an opinion on this was probably ill advised. I've broken down each play below. I tried to be as objective as I could. I'm not looking to make myself look good. I'm no talent scout and I'd love nothing more than to be wrong. I was more trying to remember why I had such a negative reaction from watching the game.

After rewatching the game, I have to stand by my initial reaction. Based solely on the Senior Bowl, I don't feel great about the pick. He made two absolutely beautiful throws and threw up some prayers (one that got answered - another that turned in DPI). He was also inaccurate, and usually inaccurate high.

I hope he comes in, learns the system and lights it up. I'll be rooting for him.

Pass #1 (really good)

1st and 10 from the 25. Drop back pass, decent pocket, OT Tytus Howard getting pushed towards Grier, but he makes a good, accurate throw on a slant to Deebo Samuel for 15 yards. This is a type of throw and route that Curtis Samuel or DJ Moore could make into a huuuuuuuuuuuge play.

Pass #2 (throw away - I hope)

2nd and 2 from around the 50, play action pass, Grier was flushed out, threw falling away, ball got away from him, probably a good thing because it was headed down field into double coverage, but he overthrew everybody, probably on purpose.

Pass #3  (not so good)

3rd and 2, shotgun, decent pocket, double clutched, inaccurate high. This should have ended what would become their touchdown drive, but they were bailed out by a holding penalty, and the drive continued.

Pass #4  (really good)

2nd and 5. Beautiful three step slant route right in stride to the receiver. Again, it’s easy to see Moore or Samuel doing exciting things on this type of play.

Pass #5 (not sure)

2nd and 19, in shotgun. Good initial pocket, but with good coverage down the field, Grier pulls it down. He then throws an off-balance prayer down the field. South gets a questionable DPI on Chris Boyd, but the ball was certainly catchable by the Wide Receiver.

Pass #6 (throw away)

2nd and 6. Three step drop, doesn’t like his first read, resets, rolls out and throws it away. Probably the right play and it was actually Grier's scrambling that directly led to a another DPI on Boyd the play.

Pass #7 (just really good coverage)

1st and 10, play action fake, to a naked bootleg, good throw, better coverage by Harris from Boston College. Ball falls incomplete.

Pass #8 (not sure)

3rd and 11. The pocket collapses as Dilliard gets walked back into Grier’s lap. The DE was guilty of Hands to the Face. Grier escapes, throws another prayer across his body to the middle of the field and Hunter Renfrow (Clemson) makes a great play on the ball to come down with it. One announcer (sounded like Daniel Jeremiah) thinks the ball didn’t go anywhere near where Grier wanted it to "it got away from him", but I wonder how he knows. Same announcer called it "lucky".  Another announcer (Charles Davis?) agrees it really should have been a pick. This is one of those throws that would probably be picked in the NFL but also the kind of throw I feel guys like Russell Wilson get away with all the time.

Pass #9 (not so good)

2nd and 14, short drop, Grier throws and misses high.

Pass #10 (not good)

3rd and 14 shotgun. WR Screen, again Grier is high but Renfrow brings it in, can’t pick up the 1st down (would have been tough even with a perfect throw).

Pass #11 ("this" close)

1st and 10. Because of weird Senior Bowl rules, Grier has only one play to go the length of the field. It looks like they run all verticals and somehow Deebo Samuel gets behind the defense, but the throw is just a hair too long. It's probably a touchdown with a better throw/timing.

[LinvilleGorge]

I'm kind of indifferent on the Grier pick. I'd honestly be fairly favorable of it if we hadn't traded away our earlier 3rd and had drafted another potential contributor there.

QB is one position that's really tough to judge in a Senior Bowl type of atmosphere with a limited time to get a feel for the receivers. So much of the passing game in football is about the QB and receivers being on the same page and having a feel for one another's timing. With that said, that prayer he threw up that Renfrow brought down probably gets picked in the NFL 9 times out of 10.

I honestly think Grier is a Delhomme type. His moxie and intangibles will largely have to carry him because I think his physical talent is marginal for the NFL level.

At the end of the day, I hope we never get to really fit out. I hope Cam's shoulder is good to go and I hope Grier will look good enough in preseason games and mop up duty that we can flip him for a higher pick in a couple or three years.

[TheMostInterestingMan]

37 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I'm kind of indifferent on the Grier pick. I'd honestly be fairly favorable of it if we hadn't traded away our earlier 3rd and had drafted another potential contributor there.

QB is one position that's really tough to judge in a Senior Bowl type of atmosphere with a limited time to get a feel for the receivers. So much of the passing game in football is about the QB and receivers being on the same page and having a feel for one another's timing. With that said, that prayer he threw up that Renfrow brought down probably gets picked in the NFL 9 times out of 10.

I honestly think Grier is a Delhomme type. His moxie and intangibles will largely have to carry him because I think his physical talent is marginal for the NFL level.

At the end of the day, I hope we never get to really fit out. I hope Cam's shoulder is good to go and I hope Grier will look good enough in preseason games and mop up duty that we can flip him for a higher pick in a couple or three years.

Yeah Grier to me is only plan B if Cam can’t get right. I don’t think the intention is genuinely to replace Cam with Grier, but we had to do something to be prepared if Cam’s arm falls off again. I do think Grier’s strengths go well with our quick and shift receivers though.

[bababoey]

It's hard to judge a receiver or a QB by how well they do in the senior bowl.  That game is just not really conducive to those positions.  The QB is throwing to new receivers that he doesn't know, in a offense neither of them know and using adjustments neither of them have done before.  DE, DT, CB, RB, those positions are much easier to judge.  If you rush the QB you rush the QB.  2 Deep zone is 2 deep zone in every defense.  But offense can be so different from one system to the next it's really hard to judge the skill position guys when they don't know it.

[Zaximus]

I hate judging someone by the Senior Bowl.    Too many variables that a person wouldn't be dealing with on a team he's a member of.  

[Byrdman4real]

1 hour ago, bababoey said:

It's hard to judge a receiver or a QB by how well they do in the senior bowl.  That game is just not really conducive to those positions.  The QB is throwing to new receivers that he doesn't know, in a offense neither of them know and using adjustments neither of them have done before.  DE, DT, CB, RB, those positions are much easier to judge.  If you rush the QB you rush the QB.  2 Deep zone is 2 deep zone in every defense.  But offense can be so different from one system to the next it's really hard to judge the skill position guys when they don't know it.

This

[kungfoodude]

6 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I'm kind of indifferent on the Grier pick. I'd honestly be fairly favorable of it if we hadn't traded away our earlier 3rd and had drafted another potential contributor there.

QB is one position that's really tough to judge in a Senior Bowl type of atmosphere with a limited time to get a feel for the receivers. So much of the passing game in football is about the QB and receivers being on the same page and having a feel for one another's timing. With that said, that prayer he threw up that Renfrow brought down probably gets picked in the NFL 9 times out of 10.

I honestly think Grier is a Delhomme type. His moxie and intangibles will largely have to carry him because I think his physical talent is marginal for the NFL level.

At the end of the day, I hope we never get to really fit out. I hope Cam's shoulder is good to go and I hope Grier will look good enough in preseason games and mop up duty that we can flip him for a higher pick in a couple or three years.

That is pretty much my take. I am more down on the pick because we potentially squandered the two picks before(Little and the other 3rd). 

Hopefully Grier can be a good 2nd or 3rd string QB that we never see but in the preseason and 4th quarter mop up duty.

[kungfoodude]

2 hours ago, Zaximus said:

I hate judging someone by the Senior Bowl.    Too many variables that a person wouldn't be dealing with on a team he's a member of.  

The Senior Bowl game is pretty meaningless. A pretty good chunk of the scouts don't even stick around for the actual game. The practices are where all the good intel is. That is where NFL scouts and coaches get to evaluate the players in a controlled setting.

[Sgt Schultz]

7 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I'm kind of indifferent on the Grier pick. I'd honestly be fairly favorable of it if we hadn't traded away our earlier 3rd and had drafted another potential contributor there.

QB is one position that's really tough to judge in a Senior Bowl type of atmosphere with a limited time to get a feel for the receivers. So much of the passing game in football is about the QB and receivers being on the same page and having a feel for one another's timing. With that said, that prayer he threw up that Renfrow brought down probably gets picked in the NFL 9 times out of 10.

I honestly think Grier is a Delhomme type. His moxie and intangibles will largely have to carry him because I think his physical talent is marginal for the NFL level.

At the end of the day, I hope we never get to really fit out. I hope Cam's shoulder is good to go and I hope Grier will look good enough in preseason games and mop up duty that we can flip him for a higher pick in a couple or three years.

This is exactly where I am with the Grier pick. 

I thought before FA started and continue to believe that if the concern is Cam's shoulder (or something else) not surviving the entire 2019 season, the most likely place to find somebody that can step in and at least keep the train on the rails was a veteran who is putting out on about the 15th hole of his career.  If we were looking for somebody who is not going to create any level of QB controversy now and could hang around and maybe develop into something if Cam's time is limited, I can see Grier fitting that bill. 

Then again, I was not all that crazy about any of the QBs in this year's draft in terms of coming in and making an immediate impact.  Arizona had better hope the whole experiment down there works out.

[kungfoodude]

3 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

This is exactly where I am with the Grier pick. 

I thought before FA started and continue to believe that if the concern is Cam's shoulder (or something else) not surviving the entire 2019 season, the most likely place to find somebody that can step in and at least keep the train on the rails was a veteran who is putting out on about the 15th hole of his career.  If we were looking for somebody who is not going to create any level of QB controversy now and could hang around and maybe develop into something if Cam's time is limited, I can see Grier fitting that bill. 

Then again, I was not all that crazy about any of the QBs in this year's draft in terms of coming in and making an immediate impact.  Arizona had better hope the whole experiment down there works out.

I think Haskins and Murray have pretty high ceilings. The rest of the crowd have the look of a bunch of journeymen backup QB's. 

[Sgt Schultz]

4 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I think Haskins and Murray have pretty high ceilings. The rest of the crowd have the look of a bunch of journeymen backup QB's. 

I agree, and I'm not even sure how I feel about Murray. 

I'm not complaining about the Grier pick.  I think we drafted him in right about the right place in the draft.  I'd have felt a lot better about it if he had been our fourth pick rather than our third, mostly because it meant we had addressed something else that was more immediate.  While having somebody solid stand ready behind Cam, I don't know that much of anybody in the draft was going to be truly ready to fill that role in 2019.

All that said, our salary cap situation probably precluded grabbing anybody that could be game ready to fill the role this season, if needed.  So it may be a moot point.

[kungfoodude]

16 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

I agree, and I'm not even sure how I feel about Murray. 

I'm not complaining about the Grier pick.  I think we drafted him in right about the right place in the draft.  I'd have felt a lot better about it if he had been our fourth pick rather than our third, mostly because it meant we had addressed something else that was more immediate.  While having somebody solid stand ready behind Cam, I don't know that much of anybody in the draft was going to be truly ready to fill that role in 2019.

All that said, our salary cap situation probably precluded grabbing anybody that could be game ready to fill the role this season, if needed.  So it may be a moot point.

I think it will take a while to know about Murray because he is probably gonna get wrecked behind that offensive line. Hopefully he doesn't contract David Carr Battered QB Syndrome. 

[RenoCarolina]

8 hours ago, trueblade said:

After rewatching the game, I have to stand by my initial reaction. Based solely on the Senior Bowl, I don't feel great about the pick. He made two absolutely beautiful throws and threw up some prayers (one that got answered - another that turned in DPI). He was also inaccurate, and usually inaccurate high.

 

So our receivers won't have a learning curve?

(too early?)

[DeAngelo Beason]

I am 100% certain that using 8 throws at the senior bowl as the only criteria for determining overall talent is not an effective method of scouting.