Panthers Value Youth Early in the Draft

[Untouchable]

While we are grasping at any straws we can to figure out which way the team is leaning in the 1st round and how the draft will fall toward the Panthers, here's another interesting trend that has shown up lately in the draft.  All 6 of the Panthers top 40 picks in the last 4 years (throwing in Funchess at pick 41) have been incredible young.  All were true juniors with the exception of Butler who was a true senior.  The age below is from the start of their respective rookie year.

YEAR	PICK	PLAYER	AGE*
2018	24	Moore	21.4
2017	8	McCaffery	21.2
2017	40	Samuel	21.1
2016	30	Butler	22.2
2015	25	Thompson	21.4
2015	41	Funchess	21.3

Moore's age might have been a reason the team swung his way in what was a very close call between him and Calvin Ridley.  None of the players were starters right out of the gate either which seems on par for a coaching staff that seems to value experience and likes to bring along prospects slower.  The exception was McCaffery as he was NFL ready and played a huge role in his rookie year and significantly out snapped Stewart even if he wasn't the starter.  Moore's role did expand drastically as the year went on too, especially as the team pulled away from the soon to be departing Funchess.  Grabbing young talents can be a good strategy for a team as it is much better value to resign a 24/25 year old then 28/29 to a massive second contract because they are most likely to be finishing that second contract still playing at a high level.  Butler seems like the outlier compared to the rest but I'll use him as the max and list the prospects who have been projected into the first round at some point in this years draft.

PLAYER	AGE*	POSITION
Brian Burns	21.4	EDGE
Byron Murphy	21.4	CB
Devin White	21.5	LB
Josh Jacobs	21.6	RB
Rashan Gary	21.7	EDGE
Greedy Williams	21.7	CB
C. Gardner-Johnson	21.7	S
Ed Oliver	21.7	IDL
Quinnen Williams	21.7	IDL
DK Metcalf	21.7	WR
Greg Little	21.8	OT
Jonah Williams	21.8	OT/G
Jawaan Taylor	21.8	OT
Noah Fant	21.8	TE
Dexter Lawrence	21.8	IDL
Zach Allen	22.0	IDL
Darnell Savage	22.1	S
Josh Allen	22.1	EDGE
Kyler Murray	22.1	QB
TJ Hockenson	22.2	TE
Marquise Brown	22.2	WR
AJ Brown	22.2	WR

The caveat here is if you go back to the 2014 and 2013 drafts, when the team had glaring needs at WR and DT respectively, they selected older prospects in Star (23.7 yo), Short at pick 44 (24.6 yo) and Kelvin Benjamin (23.6 yo). Star and Benjamin started from day 1 and Short significantly out snapped starter Colin Cole his rookie year.

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the new hybrid D, OL and secondary that could break the recent trend toward youth early in the draft and lead to highly rated prospects like Dillard (especially with how weak next year's OL class looks), Sweat and Wilkins, but our first pick could be coming from that list.

[Panthers8969]

Good. The younger the better I say. So glad we didnt draft grandpa Ridley last year

[Palmetto]

YEAR	PICK	PLAYER	AGE*
2018	24	Moore	21.4
2017	8	McCaffery	21.2
2017	40	Samuel	21.1
2016	30	Butler	22.2
2015	25	Thompson	21.4
2015	41	Funchess	21.3

 

Maybe its time to revise that strategy a little

[Untouchable]

49 minutes ago, Palmetto said:

YEAR	PICK	PLAYER	AGE*
2018	24	Moore	21.4
2017	8	McCaffery	21.2
2017	40	Samuel	21.1
2016	30	Butler	22.2
2015	25	Thompson	21.4
2015	41	Funchess	21.3

 

Maybe its time to revise that strategy a little

Eh, they were all still good prospects to me.  More so coaching failures as they failed to develop the talent.  In particular, your highlighted ones growth were stunted as they were hidden behind other players on the depth chart for so long.  That's a front office failure as those early picks need to play in order to take advantage of the rookie wage scale so a team shouldn't make those picks to have them as backups for 3-4  years.

[Peon Awesome]

But Gentleman was responsible for the majority of those picks so not sure you can really use that to gauge what we'll do this year. Ridley vs Moore is an interesting comparison but there's a lot more that separates them than age and one example doesn't establish a trend. But I commend your attempted analysis. 

[Untouchable]

9 hours ago, Peon Awesome said:

But Gentleman was responsible for the majority of those picks so not sure you can really use that to gauge what we'll do this year. Ridley vs Moore is an interesting comparison but there's a lot more that separates them than age and one example doesn't establish a trend. But I commend your attempted analysis. 

The coaching staff is responsible for developing the prospects and has been a constant through both GMs.  They have a large say in the war room as well.

[manu4t]

Not sure if they will stick with this or not during the draft but props to OP for doing some research and not just framing opinion as fact to justify an opinion.

[Moo Daeng]

When talking about decimal pieces of a year it seems more coincidence 

[L-TownCat]

11 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

When talking about decimal pieces of a year it seems more coincidence 

decimal pieces = fractions

try fractions.  

[Moo Daeng]

5 minutes ago, L-TownCat said:

decimal pieces = fractions

try fractions.  

Nah. I prefer decimal points or pieces. The numbers he showed are in single decimal not fractions.

[L-TownCat]

5 hours ago, Moo Daeng said:

Nah. I prefer decimal points or pieces. The numbers he showed are in single decimal not fractions.

words.  the words.  decimal pieces?  the word is a fraction.

[TheSpecialJuan]

good stuff man

[Untouchable]

Burns makes it 7 straight and the 6th true junior in the last 7.

.....and Little makes it 8 in a row (7th true junior)

[Mother Grabber]

i’m compiling a similar essay showing that the panthers slant heavily towards male players in rounds 1-3, going all the way back to the initial expansion draft!