The Great Peter King's 2019 1st round mock draft

[TheSpecialJuan]

1. Arizona: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

We live in a society (I sound like Costanza) that screams “Fake News!” when something seems just too obvious. We need to face reality, folks. When Cards GM Steve Keim walks into a meeting with club president Michael Bidwill today in Tempe to discuss the fate of the first overall pick, they could do a couple of things. They could decide to take Murray, the choice of head coach Kliff Kinsgbury. They could decide to take the best edge-rusher (Nick Bosa)—who I hear is the choice of many in the building—or the best player (Quinnen Williams) in the draft. I’ll be surprised, as will America, if the choice is anyone but Murray, particularly because the Raiders, at four, are not likely to want to trade up for what it would cost. I do want to give you one cautionary tale on Kyler Murray, assuming he is picked here. Over the last seven years of football—three years of varsity high school football, a short one-year stint at Texans A&M, sitting a year at Oklahoma after transferring, mostly sitting in 2017 behind Baker Mayfield, and starting last year at Oklahoma—Murray has started 60 games. He is 57-3. Who knows if he starts right away in the NFL? But in the NFL, he could lose more starts in a month than he lost in the previous seven years. It’ll be interesting to see how Murray adjusts to adversity. Not sure he’s ever had much of it, at least in football.

2. San Francisco: Nick Bosa, edge rusher, Ohio State

Niners have loved him since the Cotton Bowl in 2017, when Bosa’s 1.5 sacks led the marauding Ohio State defense in a 24-7 pummeling of USC’s Sam Darnold in the last game of the star QB’s college career. I hear the Cardinals think of Bosa as a “generational player,” which just speaks to their love of Murray if they’re willing to pass on Bosa and leave him to the Niners. Edge-rusher is the element San Francisco hasn’t gotten right. To fortify the defensive front, the 49ers chose Arik Armstead 17th in 2015, DeForest Buckner seventh in 2016, and Solomon Thomas third in 2017 … and still their biggest team need is pressuring the quarterback. Four picks in the top 20 in the span of five drafts along the defensive line—if Bosa doesn’t put the defensive front over the top, this is some bad drafting.

3. New York Jets: Ed Oliver, DT, HoustoImagine Josh McDaniels, Chad O’Shea and Brian Daboll—the offensive brains of the AFC East—designing protections to keep Leonard Williams and Oliver from wrecking games over the next three or four years. I realize that with new coordinator Gregg Williams staying with a 3-4 defense that this isn’t the perfect fit for Oliver, but Williams once bragged about being able to play 42 different defenses with his scheme, and he’d figure out how to make Oliver work. For a long time, I’d penciled in Josh Allen here because of the Jets’ edge-rusher need, but when you do a mock, you go by your gut. And someone I trust told me the Jets don’t love Allen. So those are the kinds of scale-tippers that change the board—and, most often, make me look like a dope Thursday night about 8:45 ET. We shall see. Oh, and the Jets would like to trade down too, if they can get a ransom. I don’t see it.

4. Oakland: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama

My guess after talking to multiple teams is that Williams is at the top of more boards than any player. One of the smartest guys in our business, ESPN’s Jeff Legwold, has Williams atop his Top 100 list that dropped Saturday. Since the Raiders have a crying need at tackle—their top-rated DT was not in the top 50 of the 2018 Pro Football Focus DT rankings—Jon Gruden, who has ultimate say in Oakland, will greenlight this pick, and GM Mike Mayock gladly will take Williams here as the first pick of his NFL GM career.

5. Tampa Bay: Devin White, LB, LSU

Lots of people love White, a tackling machine who, at 237, tackles with the force of a 260-pounder. I’m taking my best guess of what GM Jason Licht would do if he was staring at White and Josh Allen here … because the Bucs need a pass-rusher too. Jason Pierre-Paul is 30, and other than possibly the precocious Carl Nassib, I don’t think there’s an eight-sack guy on the roster. But White can step in for the departed Kwon Alexander and be the sideline-to-sideline presence coordinator Todd Bowles would love. Plus, White might be the best defensive leader in this draft.

6. New York Giants: Josh Allen, edge rusher, Kentucky

A veteran personnel man who knows Dave Gettleman said the other day, “Dave wants a pass-rusher in the worst way. He won’t reach for one, but he’ll get one with one his first three picks.” Giants pick 6-17-37, and if they have their heart set on one of the young quarterbacks—Gettleman, as usual, has been a good poker-player here, because even those who know him do not know which quarterback he likes—they should be able to get him at 17. Or, perhaps, if they play their cards right, to trade back up into the low first round with that fifth pick in the second round as bait. (The Rams would love to dump out of the 31st pick.) One other thing Gettleman would figure to love in Allen: No top-prospect rusher is more experienced: He played in 51 college games.

7. Jacksonville: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa

Daniel Jeremiah said the other day he thinks Hockenson could be the reincarnation of Jason Witten. He’s the best blocking/receiving tight end to come out in several years, and he’ll need to be good so the Jags don’t regret passing on a desperately needed long-term tackle like Jawaan Taylor. My feeling is the Tom Coughlin/Dave Caldwell decision comes down to Hockenson or Taylor, and they go with the best tight end to come out in years—to support their new quarterback, Nick Foles, who had a great tight end in Zach Ertz in Philadelphia.

8. Detroit: Jawaan Taylor, T, Florida

I will be surprised if the Lions pick Taylor here. The Lions want to trade out, and this is the area for the first offensive lineman—Taylor or Jonah Williams or, in what may be a stretch, Andre Dillard—to be picked. Could be Jacksonville, could be Buffalo, or it could be whoever picks at eight. (Man, I’m really selling Taylor to the Lions!) I just can’t figure out which team will jump up here. For a while I thought it was Atlanta, but the Falcons seem inclined to use all their picks, not trade a fairly high one to move from 14 to eight.

9. Buffalo: Jonah Williams, T-G, Alabama 

Bills love Quinnen Williams, but I can’t see the Raiders parting with him if he’s there at four. Bills could also trade up for Josh Allen, or pick T.J. Hockenson if he falls to them. But if they stay, Jonah Williams could be an upgrade to Spencer Long at right guard or possibly, eventually, Ty Nsekhe, at right tackle. Lots of differing opinions in the scouting community on Williams. I would ask Bills Nation to look up “quixotic” in the dictionary. This is a good player, a better-than-Cordy Glenn player, but Williams is not Walter Jones. Having said that, it’s a smart choice by Bills GM Brandon Beane, who is trying to build a playoff team one solid player at a time.

[TheSpecialJuan]

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/22/nfl-mock-draft-fmia-peter-king/

[Black&BlueBubba]

Hell yeah!

16. Carolina: Montez Sweat, edge rusher, Mississippi State 

“Don’t put him in the first round,” one smart guy told me Sunday afternoon. “So many teams are afraid of him.” Some teams are worried about a heart condition discovered in Sweat after the season, and NFL Network reported Sweat has been taken off some teams’ draft boards. One GM told me Saturday: “We think it’s an issue, but we’ve been told if we keep a close eye on it, he can play. This is the kind of thing that different teams will have different opinions on.” Another GM told me he thought Sweat’s upside, if healthy, is better than Nick Bosa’s. With the retirement of Julius Peppers, Sweat would be a perfect addition to an edge-rush-needy team—if GM Marty Hurney can get past the worry over Sweat’s ticker.

[Jeremy Igo]

If Sweat falls to us they will run not walk to the podium. 

[SuperBowlBound]

36 minutes ago, Jeremy Igo said:

If Sweat falls to us they will run not walk to the podium. 

I'm not sure how I feel about Sweat given the heart condition and a few other factors. I prefer OL and believe they'll still take one of the OT's. I'm assuming you have some insight to how the Panthers have Sweat graded. It appears that there are only 15 or so guys that have a first round grade in this draft. If they take him, I get it.

There were two interesting nuggets from Albert Breer this morning on this OL crop and Sweat:

Quote

You’ve read in this space that some teams may wait on quarterbacks and receivers, seeing what this year’s class is, and knowing those positions have potential to be significantly stronger in 2020. With the offensive linemen, the opposite is happening. Not only has it gotten harder to find and develop offensive linemen...a peek ahead to next year has revealed a relatively barren landscape. Notre Dame left tackle Liam Eichenberg and Wisconsin center Tyler Biadasz have a shot as headliners, but there’s not a ton of depth or overall promise—which has created urgency for teams to get their guys in 2019.

And on Sweat:

Quote

I would pay attention to Sweat’s decision not to go to Nashville for the draft. We had it in the Monday Afternoon Quarterback last week that his heart condition would knock him off some teams’ boards. And it doesn’t end there. Failed drug tests earlier on as a collegian, his dismissal from Michigan State, and his handling of the pre-draft process have added to the trepidation teams have on the 6' 6", 260-pound freak, who blistered a 4.41 40-yard dash and posted a 36-inch vertical in Indy.

Details weren't provided on his handling of the pre-draft process and I haven't seen anything written about it. It's going to be interesting Thursday night, that's for sure.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/04/22/mock-draft-kyler-murray-arizona-cardinals-nick-bosa-dwayne-haskins

[Hoenheim]

I'd love that. As long as he can bring hell off the edge,  I don't give a fug about his past as long as hes not getting suspended 

[Wolfcop]

Sounds like a big gamble. Could end up being a bargain or a bust.

[emcannon]

Still prefer Dillard, but if Sweat's there & we selected him I wouldn't be mad. 

[ncfan]

2 hours ago, SuperBowlBound said:

I'm not sure how I feel about Sweat given the heart condition and a few other factors. I prefer OL and believe they'll still take one of the OT's. I'm assuming you have some insight to how the Panthers have Sweat graded. It appears that there are only 15 or so guys that have a first round grade in this draft. If they take him, I get it.

There were two interesting nuggets from Albert Breer this morning on this OL crop and Sweat:

And on Sweat:

Details weren't provided on his handling of the pre-draft process and I haven't seen anything written about it. It's going to be interesting Thursday night, that's for sure.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/04/22/mock-draft-kyler-murray-arizona-cardinals-nick-bosa-dwayne-haskins

"Heart Condition"

Yet it wasnt big enough from holding him out pf the combine.  They knew about and still let him participate.  Star had a "heart condition" as well and we were estatic he fell to us

Year 1 college student does something dumb, transfers out and becomes a stud elsewhere.....where have we heard this before?  Oh yeah Cam.    

Kid is a great kid and if he is there.  As @Jeremy Igo said, we should run to the podium.

 

 

 

*also btw, I think there is a Solid shot he does fall to us

[Peon Awesome]

Couple interesting things in the article aside from the Panthers taking Sweat (another subtle jab to the "No way in hell Sweat is there at 16" Huddle brigade).

1. He has Rock Ya-Sin as the first corner drafted

2. Has Marquise Brown as the first wr drafted, with Metcalf going at 30.

3. Predicts the Cardinals will get a 3rd rounder for Rosen. 

[LinvilleGorge]

14 minutes ago, Peon Awesome said:

Couple interesting things in the article aside from the Panthers taking Sweat (another subtle jab to the "No way in hell Sweat is there at 16" Huddle brigade).

1. He has Rock Ya-Sin as the first corner drafted

2. Has Marquise Brown as the first wr drafted, with Metcalf going at 30.

3. Predicts the Cardinals will get a 3rd rounder for Rosen. 

If I was the Cards and I could only get a 3rd for Rosen right now I'd probably just hang onto him for right now. Hope he looks good in preseason amd increases his value and/or maybe someone's aging starter goes down.

[Mr. Scot]

The last few drafts have been entertaining as hell because somebody went nuts high in the first round and it threw everybody's scenarios in the trash.

As long as we come out with a good pick, I wouldn't mind seeing that again this year... wouldn't mind at all.

[TheSpecialJuan]

On 4/22/2019 at 3:17 AM, Jeremy Igo said:

If Sweat falls to us they will run not walk to the podium. 

Absolutely 

[micnificent28]

In light of the Gary News... I’m Good with Sweat,Burns, Dilliard(not trading up to 10 or 8 tho)