Riot Report: The Case For Matt Kalil - Why Bringing Him Back Is A Good Idea

[Saca312]

Well it looks like Rivera's considering keeping Matt Kalil around based on his comments. For a lot of you, that sounds like the equivalent of the Panthers signing off Cam's life insurance, given how poor his performance can be on the field. 

However, in the grand scheme of things, is it really that bad of an idea? 

Vincent from the Riot Report offers his case for Matt Kalil:

https://theriotreport.com/the-case-for-matt-kalil/

Here's a quote I really love from this piece:

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The aim of roster building is to put the most effective combination of players on the field for every game of a season. 

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This is absolutely true and something not many fans think of. You have to realize Daryl Williams is coming off a major knee injury that kept him on IR all season and furthermore. Will he be effective coming back manning the right side? Was he even that good in the first place? I have my doubts on that, and so does Vincent:

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Daryl Williams is a former second team All-Pro and his 2017 AV would have him ranked as the seventh-best tackle in the NFL in 2018, but those numbers may be a bit skewed – I’m not suggesting he’s terrible, but Mike Shula actively designed plays to limit the impact of his weaknesses. After all, there is a reason why Ed Dickson was used as an additional tackle with some frequency in 2017 – and always on the right side of the offensive line. As a run blocker he is genuinely quite good, but as a pass protector he is somebody you need to hide – while the Panthers were very good at that in 2017, it took a toll in other areas. This isn’t a piece about Williams, but the following play is a good example of where his limitations lie:

This play shows both Williams’ issues and how far the Panthers went to limit his exposure in obvious passing situations. Facing a four-man rush, they keep Dickson in to block the edge rusher and leave Williams and Silatolu to block the tackle while Kalil works solo on the other edge rusher. Williams doesn’t get his pad level low enough and rather than bending with his legs, he bends with his back – so when the tackle works off the initial hand move, he is unable to recover. Kalil, by comparison, does a good job of not giving the edge rusher an inside line and then, when his slide breaks down, does a good job of working the rusher wide which allows Cam to step up into the pocket.

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For context, here's CanadianPanther of the CatScratchReader with some statistical evidence backing up Vincent's claims:

And more backup:

From what it appears, Norv's scheme depends on quality tackle play without having to give much help. And unfortunately, Daryl Williams required a lot of it for his All-Pro season. Adding on, he certainly did have hiccups despite such. 

Now, coming back to Matt Kalil. I personally believe he's largely serviceable in his role and agree with Vincent's points in the article. His downside is when he makes his errors, they're completely mind-blowing dumb errors, which is what fans will remember and point to. However, even then, he's had plenty of high points, to where he's held some respectable pass rushers well. 

Here's Vincent's take:

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Let’s start with Pro Football Reference‘s approximate value statistic. In five of his seven seasons in the NFL, Kalil played all 16 games, and in those seasons Kalil recorded AV’s of 10, 8, 7, 9 and 9 – despite playing through injuries for at least one of those seasons. 23 offensive tackles had an AV of nine or more last season, including the Panthers’ own Taylor Moton with an AV of 10, with 14 of those 23 playing left tackle – remember these 14 for later.

What this means, in short, is that Matt Kalil is a mediocre left tackle when healthy.

Of course, it is easy to dismiss the AV stat, it is only one organization’s idea of value and as such is going to be prone to biases and inaccuracy. So what does Pro Football Focus think about Kalil? Well, in 2017, PFF had him ranked as their 53rd best offensive tackle – that’s not good – but his grades improved significantly over the course of the season; it is worth noting that he was coming off offseason surgery and for the second half of the season, he received a pass blocking grade of 83.4. For context, only Terron Armstead and David Bakhtiari received higher season grades than that at left tackle last season. I’m not trying to convince you that Kalil is an elite left tackle and worth the money he’s being paid – he’s not – but what these numbers strongly suggest is that he is at least mediocre.

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Pretty much sums it up. He's not as bad as his reputation gives and likely would be the best possibility with the current Panther's roster.

Finally, this quote sums this situation up:

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What the question boils down to then, is whether the Panthers can find a better player than Matt Kalil for $7.25m. So can they?

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Are we sure that Taylor Moton can be an effective LT as much as RT given how he's been a RT since college? Are we sure that Daryl Williams can come back from a major knee injury and play at an All-Pro level with less help from TEs in Norv's system? Or will continuity on the right side (keeping it a strength with Moton and Turner) and upgrading from Clark to Matt Kalil/a draft pick be the better option?

After all, look at the valuation of Matt Kalil's contracts compared to other LTs based on AV:

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but of the fourteen left tackles that had the AV of nine or higher we spoke about earlier, three are still on their rookie contract and the average salary of the other eleven players last season was $13.5m with five of the eleven earning over $15m – the smallest cap hit of those tackles was $8.4m. The Browns just gave Greg Robinson, whose highest AV since being the second overall pick in 2014 was six in 2015 – a season that was coincidentally his only season with 16 starts, a one-year deal worth as much as $9m – that certainly seems like a market Williams will want to test.

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Daryl Williams will cost a premium. But is he that worth it?

If the Panthers want to protect Cam Newton, it may indeed be wise to keep the good going on the right side and give Matt Kalil another shot, as weird as this sounds. Vincent makes a very good case and expounds on points I've hounded on the past year, and I believe this would be the most ideal scenario. From saving money to logic, I think this is a reasonable take overall.

 

[KillerKat]

Nope

[ncfan]

1. You go on to talk about how much help from the TEs then the clip you showed was a basic Chip block by a TE.  Help? Yes,but I wouldnt use that as a major help from a TE.  Then the % tweet you listed.  For anyone who qants to draft a OT round 1 that should be concerning as 4 out of the top 5 OTs on that list are recent high 1st round picks.

You then say 

"Norv's scheme depends on quality tackle play without having to give much help"

you do realize

a. If we roll with Kalil at LT, we Still will have to have that TE help even more

b. If we draft a OT to play LT, we are still going to have to use a Lot of TE help.  As few and far OTs in this class are LTs

 

 

maybe ilI dont know anything

but every writer,every reporter, every scout, etc all said Moton look Much better in camp when Moton took over for Kalil at LT, he looked Much better in preseason than Kalil, and he looked Dam good vs Dallas and one of the top DEs much better than Kalil.  You can use the excuse it was very limited, but he did look x10000 better.  No way to butter it up.

Kalil opens up 7.25 which leads to the next reason to cut him

Cap space.  That space would go towards a Williams.  Because we have to draft a edge rusher round 1 and not dilly with OT.  Because we arent getting a impact player in FA at DE.  If you think so, go read up on the thing called the salary cap and get back to me.  The above quality starting DE will go for around 14+ mil.  And if we're concerned about paying Williams 9 mil, not a shot in he11 we're signing a starting DE

[Untouchable]

  On 2/28/2019 at 10:24 PM, ncfan said:

1. You go on to talk about how much help from the TEs then the clip you showed was a basic Chip block by a TE.  Help? Yes,but I wouldnt use that as a major help from a TE.  Then the % tweet you listed.  For anyone who qants to draft a OT round 1 that should be concerning as 4 out of the top 5 OTs on that list are recent high 1st round picks.

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You do realize that the chip is to help Ed Dickson block the edge rusher right? 

[ncfan]

  On 2/28/2019 at 10:32 PM, Untouchable said:

You do realize that the chip is to help Ed Dickson block the edge rusher right? 

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I stand corrected. Jumped the gun there

Didnt really look like Dickson really didnt "help" Williams there though, as it appears the scheme had him picking the DT as immediately off the snap he fired that way 

[TheSpecialJuan]

  On 2/28/2019 at 9:54 PM, Saca312 said:

Well it looks like Rivera's considering keeping Matt Kalil around based on his comments. For a lot of you, that sounds like the equivalent of the Panthers signing off Cam's life insurance, given how poor his performance can be on the field. 

However, in the grand scheme of things, is it really that bad of an idea? 

Vincent from the Riot Report offers his case for Matt Kalil:

https://theriotreport.com/the-case-for-matt-kalil/

Here's a quote I really love from this piece:

This is absolutely true and something not many fans think of. You have to realize Daryl Williams is coming off a major knee injury that kept him on IR all season and furthermore. Will he be effective coming back manning the right side? Was he even that good in the first place? I have my doubts on that, and so does Vincent:

For context, here's CanadianPanther of the CatScratchReader with some statistical evidence backing up Vincent's claims:

And more backup:

From what it appears, Norv's scheme depends on quality tackle play without having to give much help. And unfortunately, Daryl Williams required a lot of it for his All-Pro season. Adding on, he certainly did have hiccups despite such. 

Now, coming back to Matt Kalil. I personally believe he's largely serviceable in his role and agree with Vincent's points in the article. His downside is when he makes his errors, they're completely mind-blowing dumb errors, which is what fans will remember and point to. However, even then, he's had plenty of high points, to where he's held some respectable pass rushers well. 

Here's Vincent's take:

Pretty much sums it up. He's not as bad as his reputation gives and likely would be the best possibility with the current Panther's roster.

Finally, this quote sums this situation up:

Are we sure that Taylor Moton can be an effective LT as much as RT given how he's been a RT since college? Are we sure that Daryl Williams can come back from a major knee injury and play at an All-Pro level with less help from TEs in Norv's system? Or will continuity on the right side (keeping it a strength with Moton and Turner) and upgrading from Clark to Matt Kalil/a draft pick be the better option?

After all, look at the valuation of Matt Kalil's contracts compared to other LTs based on AV:

Daryl Williams will cost a premium. But is he that worth it?

If the Panthers want to protect Cam Newton, it may indeed be wise to keep the good going on the right side and give Matt Kalil another shot, as weird as this sounds. Vincent makes a very good case and expounds on points I've hounded on the past year, and I believe this would be the most ideal scenario. From saving money to logic, I think this is a reasonable take overall.

 

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Wonderful article, Vincent is spot on. It's great that we as Panthers fans have such a great website in the Riot Report. 

[Untouchable]

  On 2/28/2019 at 10:38 PM, ncfan said:

Didnt really look like Dickson really didnt "help" Williams there though, as it appears the scheme had him picking the DT as immediately off the snap he fired that way 

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I think that's the point being highlighted in the article. It was schemed that way to help Williams hide on the play. Then he doesn't do well with his technique on the play anyway.

They also left Kalil on an island on that play as they did all too frequently. You have to ask yourself why would a team with Matt Kalil as thier tackle be leaving him alone on an island? .... Like ever.... 

 

[ncfan]

  On 2/28/2019 at 10:53 PM, Untouchable said:

I think that's the point being highlighted in the article. It was schemed that way to help Williams hide on the play. Then he doesn't do well with his technique on the play anyway.

They also left Kalil on an island on that play as they did all too frequently. You have to ask yourself why would a team with Matt Kalil as thier tackle be leaving him alone on an island? .... Like ever.... 

 

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The thing is all the arguments against him is that they scheme help over to help him.

For this play in example, Dickson wasnt "brought to help" he just flat up picked up Beasley

Also to note the Atlanta example is a tricky one, as Atlanta runs that 4-3/3-4 hybrid and Beasley is more of that OLB who also lines up on the line as a rusher as well.

This play Williams was designed flat out to pick up the DT.  I cant confirm it was just to mask his weakness, no one but Rivera can.  But I find it a stretch to say it was designed as a mask of his weakness

Also that top 3 in receiving help 

Lewan, Conklin, Stanley people here would be begging for them in FA

[LinvilleGorge]

Do I think Kalil is worth $7.25M per year? If I knew he'd stay healthy, yeah. Probably. He's a below average starting LT but that's what you get for $7.25M. But, the reality is that he probably won't stay healthy and we'll end up forced to field some warm body at LT anyway.

I absolutely make Kalil a post-June 1st cut. One, to save $7.25M. Two, to force myself to make a move at OT. I don't want Kalil's presence on the roster to be a crutch, even subconsciously. Three, for continuity. Knowing there's a good chance Kalil will end up getting hurt and missing games, I want to just go ahead and get started on building OL continuity with another LT.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Makes perfect sense. 

[WarPanthers89]

Everyone will complain about it, but we will keep Kalil (CRINGE), let Williams walk, and draft a tackle in one of the first three rounds for depth, and hope that they can perform if needed. We will then have Kalil and Moton starting, rookie tackle, and a cheap vet that we will sign like Clark as depth. I really believe that we will sign one or two decent names in free agency (COME ONE MATT PARADIS!!!!) like a center and DE and we really won’t be in bad shape. The only holes we will really have if we go this route is safety (we have Searcy and young depth in Gaulden) and if Cockrell comes back healthy, he locks down Captains old spot. 

[Untouchable]

  On 2/28/2019 at 11:04 PM, ncfan said:

The thing is all the arguments against him is that they scheme help over to help him.

For this play in example, Dickson wasnt "brought to help" he just flat up picked up Beasley

Also to note the Atlanta example is a tricky one, as Atlanta runs that 4-3/3-4 hybrid and Beasley is more of that OLB who also lines up on the line as a rusher as well.

This play Williams was designed flat out to pick up the DT.  I cant confirm it was just to mask his weakness, no one but Rivera can.  But I find it a stretch to say it was designed as a mask of his weakness

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I have a hard time agreeing with you on this play being that it was a 4 man rush on an obvious passing down. Atlanta isn't hiding anything, it's straight rush 4 and drop the rest into coverage. 

[nickzz]

matt kalil is the type of player you want off your roster at all costs

[Saca312]

  On 2/28/2019 at 10:24 PM, ncfan said:

If we roll with Kalil at LT, we Still will have to have that TE help even more

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Nope.

I believe Kalil was the polar opposite in terms of that statistic. He had one of the least amount of TE help in the league. I'll get back to this post when I find that stat on twitter because I've seen it sourced multiple times.