FA intro draft strategy

[MHS831]

44 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I certainly hope so. Right now, I'm mixed on my opinion. His draft last year looks very strong, but his free agency class pretty much looks like vintage Hurney. At least we didn't throw huge money at anyone.

Kinda like sex.  The second time was much more productive than the first time.  And I anticipate the third time will be even better. 

 

And with a partner!

 

[Toomers]

5 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I would be happy to with Preston Smith as well. I thought he was the best 4-3 DE in the draft that year and I feel like he's largely been playing out of position in Washington's 3-4. Now before everyone starts screaming about Rivera talking 3-4, let me just say that first of all I'll believe it when I see it. Secondly, unless we completely overhaul our front seven, our personnel still fits a 4-3 front much better. IF we go to this hybrid front defense, I still expect it to be primarily 4-3 concepts with 3-4 concepts mixed in, probably primarily on obvious passing downs. The good thing about a guy like Smith is that even though I think he's likely best suited as a hand in the dirt 4-3 DE, he has lots of experience in the NFL standing up as a 3-4 OLB, so he can absolutely do either or. I think he'd be a really versatile piece for us and given the strength of the edge rusher draft this year as well as some other potential bigger fish in free agency, he's a guy we might be able to get for a relative bargain.

Basically, Preston Smith is my defensive Greg Olsen. He's THE guy I wanted in that draft that year and he went elsewhere and has performed decently but I think he has a lot more to offer in the right situation.

  Him and Trent Brown would be my starting point. Browns price tag could get out of hand. 

  I’d much rather 9M go to signing Smith than one year of “hoping” Shaq develops. 

[Cpt slay a ho]

Should go all in for the best fit de in fa that isn’t going to be franchise tagged. Can’t see and immediate impact de being available at 16, if not, Williams should be resign and we should bolster the o line to make sure cam shelf life is extended. No point in drafting hungry come April 

[Panthers8969]

7 hours ago, musicman said:

My point is, if we don't have a lot of money, just make 1 signing that's worth it and go young everywhere else. We have enough vets to hold it together. LT in the 1st is my thought if we sign a real good FA DE. The youth moment is on.

Agreed. Can’t be doing all these cute 2/3m dollar signings like Ross cockrell. Sign a good FA for once 

[davos]

11 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I would be happy to with Preston Smith as well. I thought he was the best 4-3 DE in the draft that year and I feel like he's largely been playing out of position in Washington's 3-4. Now before everyone starts screaming about Rivera talking 3-4, let me just say that first of all I'll believe it when I see it. Secondly, unless we completely overhaul our front seven, our personnel still fits a 4-3 front much better. IF we go to this hybrid front defense, I still expect it to be primarily 4-3 concepts with 3-4 concepts mixed in, probably primarily on obvious passing downs. The good thing about a guy like Smith is that even though I think he's likely best suited as a hand in the dirt 4-3 DE, he has lots of experience in the NFL standing up as a 3-4 OLB, so he can absolutely do either or. I think he'd be a really versatile piece for us and given the strength of the edge rusher draft this year as well as some other potential bigger fish in free agency, he's a guy we might be able to get for a relative bargain.

Basically, Preston Smith is my defensive Greg Olsen. He's THE guy I wanted in that draft that year and he went elsewhere and has performed decently but I think he has a lot more to offer in the right situation.

Totally 100% agree.  Thought the same about Matt Judon as well but he's excelling in a 3-4 in BAL.  Still think he'd be a fine 4-3. 

Preston Smith is a pure 3-down LDE.  Given that we have this potentially more hybrid scheme (If RR isn't blowing smoke up our asses per the usual), a 4-3 mold with the 3-4 experience would be huge rather than another EDGE rusher. 

He also had a meh year on the stat sheet but was as effective as ever.  I don't think he'll be a top pocket burner.  Maybe a 9-12 mil/yr contract.  

[Moo Daeng]

11 hours ago, RumHam said:

Well according to the media, we're trading for AB, breaking the bank for Kaeperneck and Bell.

I'm pretty sure they just post these things to rile up rednecks who will certainly click links 

[Raleigh PF]

I'd rather prioritize the FA money to solidify the OLine. Sign Matt Paradis to play center and re-sign Williams. All of the sudden, the offense is no longer an issue and the rest of FA and draft can be spent shoring up the defense.

[d-dave]

17 hours ago, stbugs said:

I’m really scared at how well people think Hurley navigated FA and I’m including Smith in this bucket. That trade was to get Smith prior to him being released.

In 1 offseason (FA was pretty much wrapped in 2017), he’s cost us:

$14m extra over 4 years with a Gano extension instead of Butker

$17m ($12 guaranteed) extension to Olsen and his 44 receptions in 2017 and 2018. Didn’t need to extend him prior to 2018.

$28m to Dontari Poe

$5m to Smith and god knows I am making a big assumption that he will be released because $5m for 17 receptions is a wee bit much and we shouldn’t pay Smith $10m over two years

$7m to Cockrell (I’ll assume he will play for us this year)

$2.5m to Searcy, again assuming he’s gone as well

That’s $73.5m in cap space. We cry a lot over Matt Kalil’s total cost of $25m, but Hurney has cost us a ton already. He’s been very bad in FA whether our FAs or other team’s.

Your $73.5m figure is a bit misleading.  You're looking at total contract values instead of the actual cap ramifications.  Also, it's very easy to make these kind of judgments after the fact.  At the moment, most of them looked decent.

Gano over Butker is hard to judge when they did it.  It's super easy to look at it now, and say "Gee, coulda-shoulda-woulda."  At the time, Gano was a known quantity and Butker was a rookie with preseason to show for it.  

As far as Olsen - he's a cornerstone of the franchise, and everyone believed he would come back.  It's also an "in the building" thing that he takes the best care of his body.  Also, was there an upgrade in FA last year?  Not at all.

Poe - filling a need with a good player to pair with our coaching staff.  I will agree that I was dubious of this pick up as someone with his gifts should not be bouncing around the league.  There's an issue there.

Smith - did you see what FA wr's were getting?  $5m is a good deal on a vet receiver.

Cockrell - was over 2 years, again, look at the FA CB market.  He should be able to contribute this year.  Injuries suck.

Searcy - Wasn't a huge fan of his this year.  Lead with his head way too often.

So yes, it's super easy to look back and say "wow, all these FA signings were garbage."  At the time, it was the best he decided to do.  Don't most NFL teams go through this?  Sure, the Rams had a really good run of FA last year.  But how often do FAs turn out to be duds in the NFL?  How many actually go on to get that much better?

Also, Hurney is what we have for now.  Not too much we can do to change that.  We have to hope for the best.  I will say last off season was very much unlike him.  Consider what happened with TD and Captain.  He's running things differently.

[OneBadCat]

22 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

We're seeing a youth movement beginning here. And I would expect to see a few of our free agents (especially those available for compensatory picks) be allowed to walk. Honestly, I think it's not just a youth movement to clear some of the old lions out of the den, but possibly the first step in a rebuild in case Cam's arm doesn't pan out. 

We might see some folks go in FA that we wouldn't necessarily think as expendable. Darryl Williams, for one, could be allowed to test the market with the idea that Moton proved himself at RT and that a LT might be reachable in the draft. Trading up could be cheaper (with the rookie contract levels being set) than trying to either grab a tackle on the open market or resigning Williams.

I think Hurney 2.0 learned a lot from the time off and I think RR is seeing that this version of the team is pretty shop-worn and ready for a refurbish. 

We just need to move Moton to LT already. He played the best at that spot than anyone has in years. Resign Daryl to RT and draft an OT in 2nd or 3rd. Bring back Clark as well and we're gravy.

[LinvilleGorge]

18 hours ago, stbugs said:

I’m really scared at how well people think Hurley navigated FA and I’m including Smith in this bucket. That trade was to get Smith prior to him being released.

In 1 offseason (FA was pretty much wrapped in 2017), he’s cost us:

$14m extra over 4 years with a Gano extension instead of Butker

$17m ($12 guaranteed) extension to Olsen and his 44 receptions in 2017 and 2018. Didn’t need to extend him prior to 2018.

$28m to Dontari Poe

$5m to Smith and god knows I am making a big assumption that he will be released because $5m for 17 receptions is a wee bit much and we shouldn’t pay Smith $10m over two years

$7m to Cockrell (I’ll assume he will play for us this year)

$2.5m to Searcy, again assuming he’s gone as well

That’s $73.5m in cap space. We cry a lot over Matt Kalil’s total cost of $25m, but Hurney has cost us a ton already. He’s been very bad in FA whether our FAs or other team’s.

If you're comparing apples to apples (total contract values), then you need to be counting Kalil at $55M and you should also be bringing up Captain's $17.5M as well as Russell Shepard's $10M. That comes out to a total of $77.5M.

Free agency has pretty much beenn a disaster for us recently no matter who was inking the contracts.

[Khyber53]

10 minutes ago, OneBadCat said:

We just need to move Moton to LT already. He played the best at that spot than anyone has in years. Resign Daryl to RT and draft an OT in 2nd or 3rd. Bring back Clark as well and we're gravy.

Before I can agree with you, I'd have to see Daryl in action again. Does he still have the motion and push? Knees are really a big deal, especially for tackles. 

[Snake]

Resigning Williams has to be priority number one. Cam would actually have tackles that could protect his blindside. After that a DE or Safety would be good. This teams rebuilding so we are not going to solve everything this year.

[LinvilleGorge]

2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I’m actually not. If you see the totals, it’s based on my assumption of how long the will play with us. Hurney isn’t cutting Gano or Olsen. Poe is the only one I am not sure about. I’d be happy to jettison him for his cost but will we?

Again, as you said both GMs have sucked so far in FA and Hurney fell into his extension trap with Olsen and Gano. He didn’t need to extend Greg yet but he did and now we have a Greg Olsen for two more years and we have no idea if he’ll play the entire year. Gano sucked hard in 2016, but let’s sign him to a big K deal because his no pressure practices looked good and we won’t even give the kid enough preseason reps. At least KC is saving $3.5m per year on a K.

Poe is scheduled for a $13.3M cap hit in 2020 with $10M in cap savings. Regardless of what we do with him this year, it's highly unlikely he sees that 3rd year. Same with Olsen. $11.8M cap hit in 2020 with $8.1M in potential cap savings. 

I get it, you don't like Hurney. I sure as hell didn't want him back either. But you're definitely paid the Hurney deals in the worst light possible while trying to sugarcoat Gettleman's mistakes.

[Waldo]

The offseasons since 2016 have been a huge mess. There are bright spots but the overall direction and capabilities of the people in charge should absolutely be questioned and not trusted. Losing JR's touch helped but he left people with bad habits, philosophies and terrible player evaluations in charge and Tepper hasn't added much to the mix other than keeping said people on their toes. That mixed with the huge removal of JR's influence and enabling of mediocrity doesn't equal a positive change for River's or Hurney's operating strategy, it's just treading water until they need to be bailed out and we all get to see if Tepper is an enabler too. This offseason would be a huge win if we just don't do anything that will cripple us in the future. Sign a Olineman (center please) and a DE with contracts we can eat next year if they bust. Last year's FAs can all be cut without using the June 1st designation next year. 

It is a very legitimate question to ask what the hell Kalil is still doing on the team. There is no good reason he hasn't been June 1st out of the organization. Is there any strategy to wait on this?