Comp Pick - Norwell

[Soul Rebel]

20 hours ago, stbugs said:

Yep. We saw that with Poe lol. Anyone with a brain knew he wasn’t worth that contract.

To be fair, I recall quite a number of people (not necessarily you) that were confident that Poe > Star after we signed Poe. 

Poe was garbage this year on a level that is akin to Hornets'  Batum, but as a NT in a 34 look, he might actually make more sense. 

[Peon Awesome]

21 hours ago, stbugs said:

Yep, some sites had us getting 99 (over Watkins) but it’s as expected. It means our 4th is 116. Not bad, 7 3rd round comps is a lot. As usual NE is good at this.

So for the pleasure of Dontarie Poe we lost a 3rd or 4th for Star and gave Atlanta a 4th and spent a lot of money as well.

Heck, we didn’t get a 6th for Dickson either because of other FAs who didn’t even play. I’m just glad we didn’t burn the 3rd for Norwell. We are going to need it. 

That's a really good point. We don't always think about the opportunity cost of our free agent signings. In a vacuum, the Poe signing seemed reasonable. Pay less annually and with less commitment for a tackle who at least historically performed somewhere to the level of Lotulelei. But when you factor in the loss of what would have been a 4th comp pick at least, it's a lot more questionable, even ignoring hindsight. Probably would be better off trying to put Butler in that role and picking up someone who had been cut at a bargain.

[4Corners]

Looks like a pretty good deal. Norwell isn’t worth the money. 

[Tepper's Chest Hair]

2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Yeah, in hindsight the $10m contract might have actually gotten us a 3rd since it seems like that number was the cutoff. A 4th at worst and Falcons don’t get a 4th. Butler hasn’t lived up to expectations but he and Love easily replace the ineffectiveness of Poe and maybe Norton gets some experience.

If we were trying for comp picks we easily could have had 2 3rds and a 6th or a 3rd, 4th and 6th. Unfortunately, hindsight and we should have because the FAs we got did nothing. 

This hindsight only works with Newton getting injured.  We started 6-2 before things unraveled.  Starting 6-2 isn't when you should have planned for comp picks the previous off season.

I think the boards were calling for a 11-12 win season.  With 10/13 being common as well.  That is when you start looking at signing people to try and get over that hump.  If we had intentionally made less moves to try for comp picks last off season, I would have personally been a bit mad.

[Lumps]

11 hours ago, stbugs said:

I hate Kalil, but Norwell’s contract is $2m more per year and if we cut Kalil now it’s a 2 year, $25-26m contract versus 2 year $30m contract for Norwell. Neither was good, but Norwell got a giant contract. $13m per year. 

Kalil is healthy and isn’t even on the field.

I’d still take Norwell for a 2 year 30 m deal before Matt Kalil for 2 year 26 m. They both are overpaid but like I said Matt is riding the bench and is full of poo. Least you get something with Norwell and I’d argue he’d be playing better had he stayed here.

 

[AU-panther]

8 hours ago, Peon Awesome said:

That's a really good point. We don't always think about the opportunity cost of our free agent signings. In a vacuum, the Poe signing seemed reasonable. Pay less annually and with less commitment for a tackle who at least historically performed somewhere to the level of Lotulelei. But when you factor in the loss of what would have been a 4th comp pick at least, it's a lot more questionable, even ignoring hindsight. Probably would be better off trying to put Butler in that role and picking up someone who had been cut at a bargain.

I agree.  You almost need to start your offseason with an idea of how many comp picks you have if you do nothing and remove them as you add people.

Right now you could make the argument that we might have at best 2 3rd or 4ths (Williams and Funchess) and maybe two 7ths if a few of our other guys sign deals in the 2-3m dollar range, maybe Davis and Love.  Correct me if I'm missing someone.

In basic terms for each UFA we sign you can start crossing those picks off of the list.

[Peon Awesome]

5 hours ago, Tepper's Chest Hair said:

This hindsight only works with Newton getting injured.  We started 6-2 before things unraveled.  Starting 6-2 isn't when you should have planned for comp picks the previous off season.

I think the boards were calling for a 11-12 win season.  With 10/13 being common as well.  That is when you start looking at signing people to try and get over that hump.  If we had intentionally made less moves to try for comp picks last off season, I would have personally been a bit mad.

Well it's one thing to think that way when you're sacrificing for a real gamechanger or you sign so many free agents that you clearly put yourself out of the running for any comp picks. I think even the biggest Poe advocates didn't think he was going to dramatically improve our defense/singlehandedly put us over the top. Best case scenario, he would be a modest upgrade over Star.  Not to mention, it's shortsighted to ignore longer term ramifications in an effort to go all in on one year. If we had 3 third round picks this year, we could cover defensive end, safety, guard, center and grab a third corner or defensive tackle through the first three rounds with legit starting potential, covering our major holes with cheap cap hits. 

[Moo Daeng]

13 hours ago, Soul Rebel said:

To be fair, I recall quite a number of people (not necessarily you) that were confident that Poe > Star after we signed Poe. 

Poe was garbage this year on a level that is akin to Hornets'  Batum, but as a NT in a 34 look, he might actually make more sense. 

And Star was garbage too. Arguably even more so and at a higher cost.

[Krovvy]

I don't like PFF, but they graded Poe at 69 (Good) and Star at 59.9 (Average).

[Tepper's Chest Hair]

16 hours ago, Peon Awesome said:

Well it's one thing to think that way when you're sacrificing for a real gamechanger or you sign so many free agents that you clearly put yourself out of the running for any comp picks. I think even the biggest Poe advocates didn't think he was going to dramatically improve our defense/singlehandedly put us over the top. Best case scenario, he would be a modest upgrade over Star.  Not to mention, it's shortsighted to ignore longer term ramifications in an effort to go all in on one year. If we had 3 third round picks this year, we could cover defensive end, safety, guard, center and grab a third corner or defensive tackle through the first three rounds with legit starting potential, covering our major holes with cheap cap hits. 

But he wasn't signed to be a modest upgrade over Star.  Star was gone.  We weren't keeping Star.  We weren't going to beat 5 years/50 mil. He was signed to be an upgrade over Love / Butler. 

Star is a 10+ mil cap hit for the remaining 4 years of his contract.  And doesn't go below a 7.8m dead cap hit for another 2 years.

Poe doesn't go above 10m until the last year of a 3 year contract, when he can be cut because its only like a 3m dead cap hit.

[Peon Awesome]

18 minutes ago, Tepper's Chest Hair said:

But he wasn't signed to be a modest upgrade over Star.  Star was gone.  We weren't keeping Star.  We weren't going to beat 5 years/50 mil. He was signed to be an upgrade over Love / Butler. 

Star is a 10+ mil cap hit for the remaining 4 years of his contract.  And doesn't go below a 7.8m dead cap hit for another 2 years.

Poe doesn't go above 10m until the last year of a 3 year contract, when he can be cut because its only like a 3m dead cap hit.

That's true. Even then, it still stands that the potential improvement from Butler/Love to Poe wasn't worth losing a 3rd round pick, based on the caliber of player Poe was felt to be at the time (ignoring his play last year, which makes the decision pretty obvious, but hindsight is cheap).

[Krovvy]

1 hour ago, Peon Awesome said:

That's true. Even then, it still stands that the potential improvement from Butler/Love to Poe wasn't worth losing a 3rd round pick, based on the caliber of player Poe was felt to be at the time (ignoring his play last year, which makes the decision pretty obvious, but hindsight is cheap).

Butler is a complete bust. The organization has all but cut ties with him.

[shaqattaq]

On 2/22/2019 at 3:09 PM, countryboi said:

ironically he has been pretty bad with the Jags, the grass is not always greener.

Don't worry about the white buffalo, he got plenty of green!