Panthers sign Eric Reid to 3-year contract

[luke nukem]

1 minute ago, Peon Awesome said:

There are far too many people who are hung up on the average value of the contract instead of the guaranteed money. Average annual value is largely meaningless in nfl contracts. A more useful way to think of it is that the Panthers are risking 10 million dollars on the bet that Eric Reid will play up to or beyond the level of a top-third safety (factoring in the rising salary cap). If he doesn't, we cut him and are out that 10 million dollars. If he gets anywhere near pro bowl level, we have a great bargain locked up for the next 3 years. Most likely he ends up in the middle as a reasonable value for a starting safety. But I think that's a better chance he outperforms his contract rather than become a complete waste. 

I'll admit that we could have possibly negotiated down a bit, particularly in light of the absence of other suitors. But this is hardly an egregious overpay. 

pretty much sums up how anyone who uses logic feels.

[ChibCU]

Whatever came of the drug test numbers? Which party lied?

[LinvilleGorge]

13 minutes ago, Bronn said:

I haven't really heard a valid argument to support the "overpaid" argument. Reid has been a top 10 safety in this league, and I believe he can return to that form. He was late to the picture last year, and had nothing in front of him.

This contract is very conservative by Hurney standards, and playing whataboutism with it doesn't really compute.

As has pretty much been said, ultimately it is a 2 year $10 M deal if things don't work out. That isn't bad for a starting, experienced, high caliber safety.

Did anyone safety last year get $7.5M per or $10M guaranteed? Not that I recall, but I could be wrong there. We won't know more until full details come out, but I do know for sure that we won't be able to get out of this contract after two years with only $10M spent since he has $10M guaranteed. His salary figures would have to be $0 for that to be the case.

[LinvilleGorge]

6 minutes ago, Peon Awesome said:

There are far too many people who are hung up on the average value of the contract instead of the guaranteed money. Average annual value is largely meaningless in nfl contracts. A more useful way to think of it is that the Panthers are risking 10 million dollars on the bet that Eric Reid will play up to or beyond the level of a top-third safety (factoring in the rising salary cap). If he doesn't, we cut him and are out that 10 million dollars. If he gets anywhere near pro bowl level, we have a great bargain locked up for the next 3 years. Most likely he ends up in the middle as a reasonable value for a starting safety. But I think that's a better chance he outperforms his contract rather than become a complete waste. 

I'll admit that we could have possibly negotiated down a bit, particularly in light of the absence of other suitors. But this is hardly an egregious overpay. 

The devil is always in the details. I expect this contract to basically be a two year deal with a team option for the third. $10M guaranteed likely means a $10M signing bonus which will be spread out at $3.33M per contract year. How the salary is structured will be interesting. I'm expecting it to be structure in a way that it costs us more to cut him than keep him in both of the first two years essentially guaranteeing him two years. Something along the lines of $2M/$4M/$6M. In that scenario, we could cut him after two years and save $6M in cap in that third year and he'd basically walk away with $16M after two years and we'd carry $3.33M in dead space that third year. Or, we could extend him or carry him the third year at a $10.33M cap figure.

Again, that's all pure speculation but something like that is what I expect. I'd be willing to bet there's more money in the form of roster bonuses involved as well.

[Bronn]

25 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Did anyone safety last year get $7.5M per or $10M guaranteed? Not that I recall, but I could be wrong there. We won't know more until full details come out, but I do know for sure that we won't be able to get out of this contract after two years with only $10M spent since he has $10M guaranteed. His salary figures would have to be $0 for that to be the case.

Minkah Fitzpatrick got a 4 year $4.1 M average per year deal with $16.4 M in guarantees as a rookie.

Derwin James got a 4 year $3.097 M average per year deal with almost $12.1 M in guarantees as a rookie.

Both those guys are obviously fully guaranteed because of the rookie status.

Comparable age veterans:

Bradley McDougald - 3 yrs $4.5 M average per year with $5.5 guaranteed

Tavon Wilson - 2 yrs $3.5 M per with $3.25 guaranteed

Basically, we're now paying Reid enough guarantees for an average (or below average if you want to argue it) safety for two years, with the potential for the span of the contract to pay him double what a roll of the dice rookie would cost.

Personally, in this case especially, I prefer the "know what you have" commodity. And we didn't overpay to obtain it.

 

EDIT:

I already posed a rough guestimate of what numbers could look like. But yes, we might be slightly more into him than $10M after two full seasons. But, if something happens and we have to part ways prior to the completion of the second season, he likely won't be paid anything else. I suspect at least half if not closer to two thirds of that guaranteed money are in the first year, and the rest is a camp bonus for the second year. We probably have a potential out as a post June 1 cut in 2020 if we have to, and will be out of the guaranteed money completely by then. So, in essence he might not even have to suit up in 2020 if things really go bad.
 

[WarPanthers89]

22 minutes ago, Thelt said:

Meh, another reason not to care about the Panthers next season or the NFL in general.  I skipped the super bowl this year for the first time in a long time.  Blue Lives Matter!

You should continue to ban the NFL and add the Huddle 

[jtm]

This signing has RR's hands all over it and think what you want about RR, but the guy knows how to put together a defense.  Reid got off his sofa and instantly made an impact on defense. 

The deal is only $10 million guaranteed.    

[Floppin]

29 minutes ago, Thelt said:

Meh, another reason not to care about the Panthers next season or the NFL in general.  I skipped the super bowl this year for the first time in a long time.  Blue Lives Matter!

You should probably boycott the internet in general imo.

[top dawg]

3 hours ago, Riv said:

Well, PFF says we signed an average to below average safety (#55) to the 10th most expensive safety contract.

Hurney gonna Hurney.

Above average! 

[KillerKat]

Looking forward to him whiffing on more tackles because he doesn't know how to wrap up and getting beat over the top.

[KillerKat]

58 minutes ago, SteveSmithTD89 said:

not a fan at that rate. Guaranteed money isnt bad but would have rather let him test the market or try to pay him around 5mil a year.

Hopefully going to SS works out better because as an in-the-box thumper, I really liked him. I'm coverage? Not so much

Hurney already back at it with the contracts. I don't think being an occasional thumper outweighs the many missed tackles because he only knows how to go for the knock out instead of wrapping up.

[Krovvy]

This is funny as hell reading peoples takes on a 3 year, 10 million guaranteed contract with heavy incentives. These same assholes were loving the Matt Kalil contract, and how it was structured, even though more than half that atrocious contract was guaranteed. They kept parroting that there was "an easy out", when in reality no matter what Matt Kalil was going to get paid as a top 5 left tackle in the league for at least 3 years.

[LinvilleGorge]

4 minutes ago, Krovvy said:

This is funny as hell reading peoples takes on a 3 year, 10 million guaranteed contract with heavy incentives. These same assholes were loving the Matt Kalil contract, and how it was structured, even though more than half that atrocious contract was guaranteed. They kept parroting that there was "an easy out", when in reality no matter what Matt Kalil was going to get paid as a top 5 left tackle in the league for at least 3 years.

Where do you come up with "heavy incentives"?

And let's be honest, there was a TON of tepedation after the fact on that Kalil's contract. Most of the hope was threefold. One, it was Ryan's brother. Two, Matsko had already succeeded with a reclamation LT on Oher. Three, Gettleman had already succeeded with a reclamation LT in Oher. 

The grass is always greener on the other side. Had we re-signed Kalil to that deal after having him play decently in one season the reaction would've been a lot different.

[Toolbox]

Great now we just need a FS who doesn't suck ass.