Mcshay’s new mock.

[AU-panther]

16 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Also...why are you using Todd McShay's top 10 as the basis for an argument at all? He is just some asshole with an opinion and a platform.

For curiosity I went back one time and checked past results of the Scout's Inc ranking, which is what McShay is part of and what I found is they are actually extremely accurate predicting who the top players are.

That is different then predicting each player to each team, which actually is unrealistic to predict because even the teams don't know for sure until they know what the team in front of them does.

For example they might have 19 players with grades of 90 or higher.  What I found looking at past results were of those 19 players usually 17-18 would go in the first 20 picks, and the players that didn't were often because of off the field issues.  Of course some year were a little worse, others a little better but overall they were really good at identifying the top players.

I would think at the top of the draft most teams are very similar in who they have at the top of their board.  People need to realize need does factor in also.  Lets say the the 3rd DE doesn't get drafted at 9, maybe he drops 5 spots to the next team who really wants a DE or that he fits their type of defense.

We aren't just going to go to the next DE on the list when it comes to our time to draft.

Maybe our board will look something like:

DE3

CB1

DE4

OT2

DT3

CB2

DE4

Try like heck to trade down

They will have a pretty good idea that DE1 (Bosa) will be gone or DT1(Williams).

I would guess once draft night comes around they will have a very good idea of who will be there and what small group (3-5) players they are going to consider.

Its still early in the process but I'm thinking:

Sweat

Ferrel

Polite

Greedy

Baker

Williams

Taylor

Ford

Wilkins

Oliver

Some of these guys will definitely go earlier but you have to consider them.

Either Wilkins or Oliver could be the 3rd DT off of the board and I could see the 3rd DT lasting to 16.  Same with the Williams(OT).  I expectant him to go first but maybe someone falls in love with a different OT and he falls.

Also the combine will cause a little bit of movement and closer to the draft that list of 10 will get smaller.  Free agency will trim it down also.

 

 

[micnificent28]

10 hours ago, Pi = 3.1SHutYoMouth! said:

Why did this secretly become another Rashan Gary thread again when it should be about Clelin Ferrell?

because he's not in the same ball park as Gary...

[micnificent28]

7 hours ago, AU-panther said:

For curiosity I went back one time and checked past results of the Scout's Inc ranking, which is what McShay is part of and what I found is they are actually extremely accurate predicting who the top players are.

That is different then predicting each player to each team, which actually is unrealistic to predict because even the teams don't know for sure until they know what the team in front of them does.

For example they might have 19 players with grades of 90 or higher.  What I found looking at past results were of those 19 players usually 17-18 would go in the first 20 picks, and the players that didn't were often because of off the field issues.  Of course some year were a little worse, others a little better but overall they were really good at identifying the top players.

I would think at the top of the draft most teams are very similar in who they have at the top of their board.  People need to realize need does factor in also.  Lets say the the 3rd DE doesn't get drafted at 9, maybe he drops 5 spots to the next team who really wants a DE or that he fits their type of defense.

We aren't just going to go to the next DE on the list when it comes to our time to draft.

Maybe our board will look something like:

DE3

CB1

DE4

OT2

DT3

CB2

DE4

Try like heck to trade down

They will have a pretty good idea that DE1 (Bosa) will be gone or DT1(Williams).

I would guess once draft night comes around they will have a very good idea of who will be there and what small group (3-5) players they are going to consider.

Its still early in the process but I'm thinking:

Sweat

Ferrel

Polite

Greedy

Baker

Williams

Taylor

Ford

Wilkins

Oliver

Some of these guys will definitely go earlier but you have to consider them.

Either Wilkins or Oliver could be the 3rd DT off of the board and I could see the 3rd DT lasting to 16.  Same with the Williams(OT).  I expectant him to go first but maybe someone falls in love with a different OT and he falls.

Also the combine will cause a little bit of movement and closer to the draft that list of 10 will get smaller.  Free agency will trim it down also.

 

 

Thank you sir for your all the jewels you dropped here. I agree 100% with your post.I also like how you think our board should look. Scouts Inc. are great at there job,Mel Kiper is just the skip bayless to there Steven A Smith who tries to be more grounded in reason like Mcshay.

[kungfoodude]

On 2/8/2019 at 8:39 PM, micnificent28 said:

He isn’t not a weak link... he’s just a high effort guy with technique. How’s far you can get vs guys that have that plus are top end athletes is why I don’t care for him. Technique can be taught, athleticism can’t. You can know what u know as much as you want(Everette Brown) but if you don’t have a dominate trait strength speed or the whole package what’s it worth in the first round?

I think you are severely underestimating him as a prospect and player. I am not going to say he is the best prospect at DE in this draft class but he is certainly worthy of being a first round draft pick.

[kungfoodude]

On 2/8/2019 at 8:50 PM, TheSpecialJuan said:

That's not very nice, sir 

Not nice but also accurate.

[kungfoodude]

On 2/8/2019 at 8:52 PM, micnificent28 said:

He’s a A hole with a whole scouting department(scouts inc) who does this for a living under him. He’s been at it for years  and seems to hit more than miss in my opinion. So would you rather I listen to that or you?

Hit in what regard? Hit on his evaluations of players and their NFL success or hit on his mock draft predictions?

Also, it is really early to be using a mock draft board to predict a slide for DE's. Remember that almost all the mock draft boards are gonna be pretty bad right now. There is still a lot of evaluation in the next two months. McShay's board is probably just as bad as any other at the moment. Hell, save his entire mock draft and look how much it changes by April 15th.

Mock drafts are fun but they don't get remotely accurate until close to the draft. Right now they are still in almost purely speculative stage. Once teams meet needs in free agency and they start to complete their actual team draft boards, sources will talk and mock drafters will adjust accordingly. 

[kungfoodude]

22 hours ago, Pejorative Miscreant said:

Aren’t we all?  Some folks just have bigger platforms.   

 

Good point!

Yeah, it was more of a cheap shot than the actual argument I was trying to make. That being, why is McShay's new mock draft the basis for a trend towards DE's sliding in the draft? That ludicrous. Especially in February.

[micnificent28]

4 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

I think you are severely underestimating him as a prospect and player. I am not going to say he is the best prospect at DE in this draft class but he is certainly worthy of being a first round draft pick.

See my earlier post saying he is def a first round guy buy in a deep Edge class I think he's the worst of the first rounders. At the top anyway. everyone down to Sweat I think are better players,would I take him over say the others like Brian Burns? Yes.

4 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Hit in what regard? Hit on his evaluations of players and their NFL success or hit on his mock draft predictions?

Also, it is really early to be using a mock draft board to predict a slide for DE's. Remember that almost all the mock draft boards are gonna be pretty bad right now. There is still a lot of evaluation in the next two months. McShay's board is probably just as bad as any other at the moment. Hell, save his entire mock draft and look how much it changes by April 15th.

Mock drafts are fun but they don't get remotely accurate until close to the draft. Right now they are still in almost purely speculative stage. Once teams meet needs in free agency and they start to complete their actual team draft boards, sources will talk and mock drafters will adjust accordingly. 

See the guy's post above that show how accurate they have been in the last 5 years. His evaluations on top end Prospects and how well they will preform. Not draft order and trades and where people will go that's unpredictable.

4 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah, it was more of a cheap shot than the actual argument I was trying to make. That being, why is McShay's new mock draft the basis for a trend towards DE's sliding in the draft? That ludicrous. Especially in February.

Why not...? I think its as close to an assessment as us coach potatoes with any connections can get. He has an actual scouting department behind him,He himself goes down to the senior bowl and combine so yeah...or we can listen to kungfoodude?

[Soul Rebel]

Ya lost me when you showed love for Kiper and McShay. Ya lost me even more when you compared Ferrell to Hall. I would do cartwheels in my living room if we end up with Clelin Ferrell in Round 1. 

 

[kungfoodude]

2 hours ago, micnificent28 said:

See my earlier post saying he is def a first round guy buy in a deep Edge class I think he's the worst of the first rounders. At the top anyway. everyone down to Sweat I think are better players,would I take him over say the others like Brian Burns? Yes.

See the guy's post above that show how accurate they have been in the last 5 years. His evaluations on top end Prospects and how well they will preform. Not draft order and trades and where people will go that's unpredictable.

Why not...? I think its as close to an assessment as us coach potatoes with any connections can get. He has an actual scouting department behind him,He himself goes down to the senior bowl and combine so yeah...or we can listen to kungfoodude?

Well, luckily for the franchise, you won't have any input on the evaluation of Ferrell. 

I think if you look at the data then you will find that McShay and Kiper are about as accurate as the rest of the bunch. In fact here is some evidence of that: https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/1/15493170/grading-the-2017-nfl-mock-drafts-judgment-day-for-kiper-mcshay-mayock

It is pretty easy for these guys to pick who the first round picks are. They hit on high percentages of those. Even using the two scoring systems referenced, if you go back through the data there are some interesting trends that pop out. Also, for all the hyping of McShay's "team of scouts" one that that definitely stood out was that he was not as accurate as some people that did not have a "team of scouts" at their disposal. 

As for AU-Panthers methodology, it's interesting but it isn't a comprehensive look at their grading system, nor is it compared to other competing scouting services. I would be more inclined to think Scout is superior to Rivals, 247, etc, etc if the data conclusively shows that, but I have a suspicion that is not the case and they are all decent predictors of which players will end up being drafted and their success in the league. 

And his going to the combine/Senior Bowl has nothing to do with predicting a slide for DE's. That is about sources and talking to teams. Any reporter with good NFL contacts can essentially come by that information because it is completely predicated on mining connections to see what these teams are planning to do, how they have the players graded, what signings are made in free agency, etc. Keep in mind that there is a LOT of very impactful things that are going to happen between now and draft day. Free agency, team workouts, the combine, college pro days, etc, etc. Not to mention a lot more dedicated film study and much more fleshed out draft board. 

That's sort of like predicting on the 3rd date with a girl that you are going to have 2 kids and and house in the Hamptons in 10 years. There are a lot of steps that are going to have a big impact on whether or not individual guys slide or there is a trend in DE's sliding as a whole. 

[micnificent28]

2 hours ago, Soul Rebel said:

Ya lost me when you showed love for Kiper and McShay. Ya lost me even more when you compared Ferrell to Hall. I would do cartwheels in my living room if we end up with Clelin Ferrell in Round 1. 

 

You were probably one of the ones that jumped for joy with shaq and butler and so on as well. I compared him to Hall because halls whole draft stock was elevated because he had 2 one of the best ends in the league on the other side plus other drafted players while being average. Farrell is a marginal athlete benefiting from great guys around him. Now does he make up for that with technique? yes and a high motor..I don't care for none athletic guys in the first. But yeah lets go with guys who just put up numbers.

[micnificent28]

23 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Well, luckily for the franchise, you won't have any input on the evaluation of Ferrell. 

I think if you look at the data then you will find that McShay and Kiper are about as accurate as the rest of the bunch. In fact here is some evidence of that: https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/1/15493170/grading-the-2017-nfl-mock-drafts-judgment-day-for-kiper-mcshay-mayock

It is pretty easy for these guys to pick who the first round picks are. They hit on high percentages of those. Even using the two scoring systems referenced, if you go back through the data there are some interesting trends that pop out. Also, for all the hyping of McShay's "team of scouts" one that that definitely stood out was that he was not as accurate as some people that did not have a "team of scouts" at their disposal. 

As for AU-Panthers methodology, it's interesting but it isn't a comprehensive look at their grading system, nor is it compared to other competing scouting services. I would be more inclined to think Scout is superior to Rivals, 247, etc, etc if the data conclusively shows that, but I have a suspicion that is not the case and they are all decent predictors of which players will end up being drafted and their success in the league. 

And his going to the combine/Senior Bowl has nothing to do with predicting a slide for DE's. That is about sources and talking to teams. Any reporter with good NFL contacts can essentially come by that information because it is completely predicated on mining connections to see what these teams are planning to do, how they have the players graded, what signings are made in free agency, etc. Keep in mind that there is a LOT of very impactful things that are going to happen between now and draft day. Free agency, team workouts, the combine, college pro days, etc, etc. Not to mention a lot more dedicated film study and much more fleshed out draft board. 

That's sort of like predicting on the 3rd date with a girl that you are going to have 2 kids and and house in the Hamptons in 10 years. There are a lot of steps that are going to have a big impact on whether or not individual guys slide or there is a trend in DE's sliding as a whole. 

Nobody is saying this is an exact science. The goal is to get as close to the target as possible. With that said even through your post they have been as accurate as anyone else. It the offseason and im posting content to discuss and you come in here talking about why are you qouting Mcshay and Kiper..how about we not post anything of value and just go off our own opinions and see how that works out.

2 hours ago, Soul Rebel said:

Ya lost me when you showed love for Kiper and McShay. Ya lost me even more when you compared Ferrell to Hall. I would do cartwheels in my living room if we end up with Clelin Ferrell in Round 1. 

 

Would you prefer I listen to Soul Reb? you got better insider contacts? Look, I am not a scout nor do I evaluate guys year round and get paid to do it. these guys do so why should I not take into consideration what they bring to the table?? You have a better Contact im all ears/

[AU-panther]

2 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Well, luckily for the franchise, you won't have any input on the evaluation of Ferrell. 

I think if you look at the data then you will find that McShay and Kiper are about as accurate as the rest of the bunch. In fact here is some evidence of that: https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/1/15493170/grading-the-2017-nfl-mock-drafts-judgment-day-for-kiper-mcshay-mayock

It is pretty easy for these guys to pick who the first round picks are. They hit on high percentages of those. Even using the two scoring systems referenced, if you go back through the data there are some interesting trends that pop out. Also, for all the hyping of McShay's "team of scouts" one that that definitely stood out was that he was not as accurate as some people that did not have a "team of scouts" at their disposal. 

As for AU-Panthers methodology, it's interesting but it isn't a comprehensive look at their grading system, nor is it compared to other competing scouting services. I would be more inclined to think Scout is superior to Rivals, 247, etc, etc if the data conclusively shows that, but I have a suspicion that is not the case and they are all decent predictors of which players will end up being drafted and their success in the league. 

And his going to the combine/Senior Bowl has nothing to do with predicting a slide for DE's. That is about sources and talking to teams. Any reporter with good NFL contacts can essentially come by that information because it is completely predicated on mining connections to see what these teams are planning to do, how they have the players graded, what signings are made in free agency, etc. Keep in mind that there is a LOT of very impactful things that are going to happen between now and draft day. Free agency, team workouts, the combine, college pro days, etc, etc. Not to mention a lot more dedicated film study and much more fleshed out draft board. 

That's sort of like predicting on the 3rd date with a girl that you are going to have 2 kids and and house in the Hamptons in 10 years. There are a lot of steps that are going to have a big impact on whether or not individual guys slide or there is a trend in DE's sliding as a whole. 

I'm not saying the they are great at predicting which players will be best.  Actually nobody is. Everyone misses more than the hit.  I actually find it interesting that with the resources (money, people, time) that teams put into it they still hit as little as they do.

My point was scouts typical do a good job of predicting the top 20 players or so.  Not which team but the range of the draft.  

The reason I think this is important a lot of your casual fans think in terms of rank. "We need a DE and if DE3 isn't there we will take DE4, if DE4 isn't there we'll take DE5"  Teams look at grades.  When it comes time to draft they will have a small list of players they expect to be there, and Scouts Inc tends to do a pretty good job of predicting that small list based on what I have seen in the past.

For example, we are picking 16, I would think our pick will be someone on that list between 12-20.  There will always a chance someone drops, Star for example, and sometimes people reach some, but overall it is pretty accurate.

 

[kungfoodude]

2 hours ago, micnificent28 said:

Nobody is saying this is an exact science. The goal is to get as close to the target as possible. With that said even through your post they have been as accurate as anyone else. It the offseason and im posting content to discuss and you come in here talking about why are you qouting Mcshay and Kiper..how about we not post anything of value and just go off our own opinions and see how that works out.

Would you prefer I listen to Soul Reb? you got better insider contacts? Look, I am not a scout nor do I evaluate guys year round and get paid to do it. these guys do so why should I not take into consideration what they bring to the table?? You have a better Contact im all ears/

I mean, I can trust my own opinions and also go through the effort to find a variety of source material to see what general consensus is. I definitely am not going to take any one "expert's" opinion above all the others. Especially Kiper and McShay. I am not sure how you can forget that Kiper served as a personal Jimmy Clausen hype machine prior to us selecting him. I am not sure how you can forget the accusations of Kiper rating a certain agents clients higher, one of which being Jimmy Clausen. 

So, no, I am not just going to take McShay or Kiper or any of the ESPN hype machine at face value without having other input, opinions and just simply using my own fuging eyes.