What round for which positions

[AU-panther]

I am a firm believer that you have to look at the entire draft, and the depth of each positional talent pool, to maximize you chances of a great draft overall.

Personally I think this draft sets up pretty well for us, in that several of our needs are positions that historically get drafted later in the draft, namely center and guard.

Here is a rough listing of the average number of players per position that have been drafted in the first 3 rounds, before pick 77, and before pick 47.  

Drafted in first 3 rounds:  Center(4) - Guard(5) - Safety(9) - DT(8) -  DE(11) -  CB(14)

Drafted before pick 77:  Center(3) - Guard(4) - Safety(7) - DT(7) -  DE(8) -  CB(10)

Drafted before pick 47:  Center(1) - Guard(2) - Safety(4) - DT(4) -  DE(4) -  CB(6)

The next step would to be determine how many prospects you have for each position.  This is why teams think in terms of "grade" and not "rank".  For example, if you feel like the 10th ranked DT has a 2nd round grade on him you might be willing to wait until the 3rd round to draft that position.  Whereas if the 10th ranked DT has a 6th round grade on him you aren't going to draft him in the third even if he is the next DT on the list.

So what positions do you all think are deep enough to wait until the third or later to draft this year.  In essence work backwards starting with your 3rd round picks.

I keep thinking, best case, we can address Center and Guard later based on the fact they normally don't get drafted as much earlier.  Also DT seems to be really deep this year so there should be good value in the second or third for one.

Maybe I am being greedy but it would nice to use one of those earlier picks on a CB or Safety.  Something like DE, S, DT, C/G for our first 4 picks.  I can also see WR being on our board a little higher than a lot of people think, especially a bigger bodied one.  I'm not saying to use a first on one but I could see us looking at some in the 2nd or 3rd.

 

 

 

[Toomers]

   That’s one way to look at it. Solid work. And I’m sure some teams have philosophies based somewhat on these principles. 

  After 44 years of drafts, the one thing I’ve learned is “have multiple options”. Don’t fall in love with a player that is not decidedly better than the group around him. You can’t predict 31 other teams, so you can’t count on anything. My top 9 players overall are DL/DE. Any of them at 16 is a huge win. 

  Pick the BPA.with respect to need. We don’t even know what needs are right now. So it’s tough to make any plans.

[AU-panther]

3 minutes ago, Toomers said:

   That’s one way to look at it. Solid work. And I’m sure some teams have philosophies based somewhat on these principles. 

  After 44 years of drafts, the one thing I’ve learned is “have multiple options”. Don’t fall in love with a player that is not decidedly better than the group around him. You can’t predict 31 other teams, so you can’t count on anything. My top 9 players overall are DL/DE. Any of them at 16 is a huge win. 

  Pick the BPA.with respect to need. We don’t even know what needs are right now. So it’s tough to make any plans.

"BPA, with respect to need", I like that description but I think you have to factor availability into it also.  For example lets say both CB and Safety are needs.  At 16 there is a 91 safety and 90 CB on the board.  With pure BPA you would go with the safety. What if you feel like you can get a 87 safety in the second but only a 81 CB?

Would you take the 91 safety and 81 CB or the 90 CB and 87 safety?

[Toomers]

  If they are that close, you go for the greater need. And since there is no way of knowing what the next 30+ picks will be, you worry about the pick you’re making. 

[Black&BlueBubba]

Here is another article on draft depth per position. 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2019/02/02/sweet-spots-for-every-position-in-2019-nfl-draft/

[AU-panther]

26 minutes ago, Toomers said:

  If they are that close, you go for the greater need. And since there is no way of knowing what the next 30+ picks will be, you worry about the pick you’re making. 

but if the need is close you have to consider what you can get later.

If you have done your homework you should have an idea of what will be there later.  

[Toomers]

4 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

but if the need is close you have to consider what you can get later.

If you have done your homework you should have an idea of what will be there later.  

I assumed that went without saying. Every team has players in groups. It’s if you think you can get a guy in that group. Which if it’s 30+ it’s useless. Now, if you have two picks that are closer like our 3rds and 4th, sure you consider it. But early rounds are get the best player for need. Not for what might be left. That depth at DL will be gone after 20 picks. Then it’s like any other year. 

[AU-panther]

29 minutes ago, Black&BlueBubba said:

Here is another article on draft depth per position. 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2019/02/02/sweet-spots-for-every-position-in-2019-nfl-draft/

Nice article.  Some of the same as I was saying earlier.

1st:  OT, Edge, Safety

2nd: CB, WR, RB, TE

3rd: DT, Interior O-line, WR

I would love to get another third.  Would only take about 4 spot drop in the first.