Is Gary still out of reach?

[AU-panther]

2 hours ago, bababoey said:

Chris Jones had 15.5 sacks last year for the Chiefs.  He had 8.5 in 3 years in college.

Hopefully people are using more than just number of sacks as a way to grade him.  Sacks in themselves can be a bit misleading, there is some luck and opportunity involved  

Stats like pressures and win rates tend to me more indicative of a players true potential.  Do you want the player who consistently beats the person in from of them or the player who gets stonewalled by the O-lineman but the QB gets flushed right to them.  Which one has the best chance of future success?

[ncfan]

1 hour ago, Pi = 3.1SHutYoMouth! said:

Chris Jones was taken in the 2nd round and finally broke out this year. I would take a chance on Gary in that round, not in the first round. As I've stated, ends who fit his profile (athletic but unproductive) do not have a good history in the first round.

I'd take him more than some guys that have been hyped up here in this forum like Arden Key.

Jadeveon Clowney

3 sacks, 11.5 TFL in 11 games, playing his Natural Position at 4-3 DE.  Drafted #1 overall.  

 

Rashan Gary

3.5 sacks 6.5 TFL in 8 games, playing in a position that scouts say he isnt best suited for

[micnificent28]

Production is very misleading when looking at college statistics. What we do know is Gary was rated the consensus number 1 player coming out of high school by numberous scouting departments. They basically said he’s that guy in his age group.

i put a heavy emphasis on this if a player remains in that spectrum coming up to when they are draft eligible plus mixing in players from higher age groups(seniors). Factor in Statistics and ignore potential would have you missing on josh Allen, wentz and drafting every qb out of Texas tech not named Mahomes.

When taking guys based on potential at pass rusher ansah for the lions come to mind. Saints took a leap of faith with Davenport(two firsters worth)and  Jason P Paul who still had 12.5 sack this past season.

[Growl]

I have never seen a player who produced so little be so revered

[Metal_Sparty]

5 minutes ago, Growl said:

I have never seen a player who produced so little be so revered

This is how I've felt for years, but I'm also a tainted MSU fan. I would prefer we go elsewhere on the line.

[micnificent28]

5 minutes ago, Growl said:

I have never seen a player who produced so little be so revered

Pssst.. stats are often misleading and not indicative to talent at the college level. Most of these kids are still growing and haven’t had a chance to fill out there bodies in a real nfl type program. Remember this guy?

[Woodie]

Gary scares me.  I was watching the PFF guys talking about him as a prospect, and while they said he has all the athleticism in the world, and could be very good, he may not be the pass rusher some think.  They talked about how his number of pressures are way low for a pass rusher, and that combined with his low sack numbers is an area of concern for anyone looking for a big time pass rusher.

In his best season, he only had like 25 pressures, which is about half of what most of the top guys got.  And it wasn't just a down year, his pressures were relatively low every year he played.  The thing is, while many fans like to use sacks as the gauge on how good they think a DL is, it's really pressures that tell the tale.  And the fact that he only had modest pressures over his career is a concern.  And really, he never took over a game at any point in his career.  So, he never has displayed the characteristics many want from any DE we bring in.

 

[ncfan]

4 minutes ago, Growl said:

I have never seen a player who produced so little be so revered

Again

1. Playing out of position.  Scouts say he is a natural 4-3 playing a DE in a 3-4. How well you think Charles Johnson, Addison wouldve held up play the same spot in the same defenses as.  Stephen Tuitt in Pitt, Leonard Williams in NY, etc?

2.  Also to throw the Stats out there.  Here are some ProBowlers This....Year  playing the same spot Gary is playing at Michigan 

 

Akeem Hick- 7.5 sacks in 16 games

Jurrell Casey- 7 sacks in 15 games

Cameron Heyward- 8 sacks in 16 games

 

 

 

Calias Campbell in what people say was his most "dominate season" in 2015.  He was playing the same spot as Gary at Michigan.  Registered 5 Sacks in 16 games.  Campbell never registered double digit sacks until he got to Jax in a 4-3

[Woodie]

The more I see and read from evaluators, the more it looks like his best position may be as a 3-tech, not DE.  Of course he can also play DE in a 3-4. since that's what he's been playing at Michigan.  But I don't think we can just assume he's that pass rusher we need at DE because he's never displayed the traits to indicate he will be one.  Of course, if the rumors we are switching to a 3-4 are true, he could be a good option as the DE we would need, but I don't see him filling that pass rusher we so desperately need.

[LinvilleGorge]

I can see why people are excited but I can also see why people are wary. I'm a little of both. I think he's an intriguing but I also think his bust potential is pretty damn high. After swinging and missing on Ealy, Butler, and Hall we can't afford to swing and miss again, especially at #16. We've been throwing all kinds of valuable draft assets at DL in recent years and we've come away with nothing.

If we draft him I'll hope the best. The good thing is that the one area Hurney excels is drafting 1st round picks. If he drafts them they have the talent if they can stay healthy.

[panthers55]

1 hour ago, ncfan said:

2× probowler and 2nd team all-pro in his first 3 seasons prior to his back injury

Touche'

[panthers55]

28 minutes ago, Woodie said:

The more I see and read from evaluators, the more it looks like his best position may be as a 3-tech, not DE.  Of course he can also play DE in a 3-4. since that's what he's been playing at Michigan.  But I don't think we can just assume he's that pass rusher we need at DE because he's never displayed the traits to indicate he will be one.  Of course, if the rumors we are switching to a 3-4 are true, he could be a good option as the DE we would need, but I don't see him filling that pass rusher we so desperately need.

Depends on whether our 3-4 hybrid is a 2 gap or 1 gap scheme.

[AU-panther]

53 minutes ago, Woodie said:

Gary scares me.  I was watching the PFF guys talking about him as a prospect, and while they said he has all the athleticism in the world, and could be very good, he may not be the pass rusher some think.  They talked about how his number of pressures are way low for a pass rusher, and that combined with his low sack numbers is an area of concern for anyone looking for a big time pass rusher.

In his best season, he only had like 25 pressures, which is about half of what most of the top guys got.  And it wasn't just a down year, his pressures were relatively low every year he played.  The thing is, while many fans like to use sacks as the gauge on how good they think a DL is, it's really pressures that tell the tale.  And the fact that he only had modest pressures over his career is a concern.  And really, he never took over a game at any point in his career.  So, he never has displayed the characteristics many want from any DE we bring in.

 

I want to say it was one of the PFF guys that said something to the effect of "pressures are actually a better predictor of sacks than sacks are".  Makes a lot of sense when you think about it.

Makes me think of old thread we had around here about what to expect from Peppers this year and that he had converted a surprisingly high rate of pressures into sacks last season and based on that you could have predicted a decline in sack numbers this year and it pretty much happened.

Like I said early people need to be really careful looking at stats like sacks and turnovers.

 

[SmittysLawnGuy]

1 hour ago, micnificent28 said:

Pssst.. stats are often misleading and not indicative to talent at the college level. Most of these kids are still growing and haven’t had a chance to fill out there bodies in a real nfl type program. Remember this guy?

Pssst... Since Gary was the number #1 ranked recruit coming out of high school and is 6'5 285lbs, he may not be your best example of just filling out. Dudes an athletic freak. I for one wish there had been more production but hell he'd probably be going #1 had he put up great stats too. Seems a bit risky for a 1st. Give me Ferrell or Sweat ahead of him.