Report: Panthers Considering switch to 3-4

[sml1950]

Tepper: Ron if you want to stay start thinking about transitioning to a 3-4.  Pittsburgh has won multiple Lombardis with it.

Rivera: Yes sir

Tepper:  Ron if you want to stay start thinking about using more analytics in your decision making, my business lives by it.

Rivera: Yes sir

Tepper: You run the xs and os and I’ll set the parameters that you’ll live within 

Rivera: Yes sir

[Mr. Scot]

If I'm being honest, I think we're kind of grasping at straws here.

I've seen plenty of people in the past talk about switching to 3-4 as if it was the cure for everything that ails us.

Could it work? Sure, but it's no magic bullet.

I think we could just as easily stick with the 4-3 we just got younger, especially up front.

[Cpt slay a ho]

Would help the pass rush situation but run defense may suffer badly, definitely would help Shaq out since I think he excels in pass rushing situations, would be excited but wouldn’t be thrilled when teams cram it down our throat 

[KillerKat]

Now, a hybrid? fug yeah. Hybrid would definitely be the way to go to confuse offenses. But I don't want it as a base atm.

[Growl]

There's really no more distance o cover building a 34 than there is rebuilding our 43.

The only people who think there is are people concerning themselves with players they shouldn't 

'"I just don't think Mario Addison is a good fit for a 34"

 

lol oh no not Mario addison

[Snake]

2 hours ago, KillerKat said:

Not with Kuechly here. After him, then yes. 3-4 with Kuechly may mean we have to say goodbye.

This is a stupid comment. At his age the 3-4 is better for him.

[RumHam]

lol @ addison as OLB. If we do this, we further regress, and it seems ron and hurney are all about regression. 

However, b/c Tepper wants to be the Steelers (constantly choking and never winning anything but hey they travel well), that's probably what the talks were about in Jersey. This is a terrible move if we do this. We just need to be more aggressive, but not a complete overhaul aggressive.

[TheCasillas]

3 minutes ago, RumHam said:

lol @ addison as OLB. If we do this, we further regress, and it seems ron and hurney are all about regression. 

However, b/c Tepper wants to be the Steelers (constantly choking and never winning anything but hey they travel well), that's probably what the talks were about in Jersey. This is a terrible move if we do this. We just need to be more aggressive, but not a complete overhaul aggressive.

it's not an overhaul... its a transition. It also gives our defense much more flexibility. We literally have to change two positions on our roster.

Also, a 3-4 defense has zero quantitative evidence that it is asynchronous with "choking"

[bababoey]

2 hours ago, TheCasillas said:

Seem to make a huge difference for the Bears.

Players made a difference.  Mack would make a 4-3 or a 3-4 or a 7-2 defense better.

[Mr. Scot]

22 minutes ago, Snake said:

This is a stupid comment. At his age the 3-4 is better for him.

It's not so much about his age.

Luke is a prototypical 4-3 middle linebacker. In that role, he's in discussion for being one of the greatest if not the greatest of all time.

I'm one of many who questions if he'd be quite as great in the 3-4 ILB slot.

 

[KillerKat]

27 minutes ago, Snake said:

This is a stupid comment. At his age the 3-4 is better for him.

If you don't know the huge difference between 3-4 ILB and 4-3 ILB, then it's ironic calling someone else's comment stupid.

[LinvilleGorge]

2 hours ago, Snake said:

This is a stupid comment. At his age the 3-4 is better for him.

What's this "at his age" stuff? The guy is 27. He should be in his absolute prime right now.

[TheSpecialJuan]

4 hours ago, Woodie said:

With so much back and forth on this issue, I decided to take a look at the viability of both the 3-4 and 4-3 for the Panthers next season.

***Please forgive the formatting, for some reason it looks correct when I type it, but gets screwed up when I post.

The Case for 3-4                                

DE - Short                                                                                                                                                                     DT - Poe                                                                                                                                                                  DE -            

OLB - Addison                                                                                                                                                             ILB - Kuechly                                                                                                                                                               ILB - Shaq                                                                                                                                                              OLB -      

CB - Bradberry                                                                                                                                                             CB - Jackson                                                                                                                                                               SS -                                                                                                                                                                               FS -

So, to switch to a 3-4 base defense, we would need to add a handful of starters.  Yes, there is some projection in this, but they are reasonable projections.  Let’s take a look at the DL and LB groups (because these are the primary areas of contention).

DL:                                                                                                                                                                                 At one DE spot, we would have Short.  The rule of thumb is that a 3-4 DE would play a 3 tech in a 4-3, and vice versa.  So, this is a natural projection, but beyond that, KK has the quickness, power, and size to excel at end in a 3-4.  Heck, there was talk at one point of him being able to play DE in a 4-3, so this should be an easy transition.  Poe is a natural NT, and has previously played very well in a 3-4, so this isn’t a projection at all.

We would still need a 2nd DE.  Maybe Butler could step up there, or maybe we’d bring back Horton, who would be undersized at DE in a 3-4.  Most likely, we’d pencil in Butler there, and bring in a FA or draft pick to compete for the spot.

LB:                                                                                                                                                                                 Both Luke and Shaq should do well at ILB in a 3-4.  They each have the size and traits to play the position.  While Luke can easily play in any system, Shaq fits the physical and intellectual criteria to play in a 3-4 as well.

The biggest point of contention is whether or not Addison can transition to 3-4 OLB.  Personally, I think he can…if nothing else, he’d be a decent stopgap.  His play is based on speed and quickness, and he has learned how to get to the QB.  I actually think that a switch might be good for him.  While he already has the size and speed to play OLB, he could probably lose a good 10-15 lbs. and add even more quickness without sacrificing much power. Also, giving him more space to work with could improve his ability to get to the QB.  Addison would be a primary pass rusher, and as such, probably wouldn’t be asked to drop into coverage very often.  So, while that would be a weakness, I don’t think it would be a major issue. 

It was a surprise when a 4-3 team drafted Haynes since most seemed to think he’d fit better in a 3-4.  So, the move would likely be a boon for him.  He also would only need to add 10-15 lbs. (which he’s probably already working on) rather than the 25-30 to play DE in a 4-3.

Bottom line is that if the team does switch to a 3-4, they have some holes that will need to be addressed in the offseason.  We’d definitely need to add a DE to compete with Butler, who there is no way we can count on at this point.  We’d also need to add probably two OLB’s.  Even if Addison does thrive, he wouldn’t be the long-term answer as he is already on the downside of his career.  And Haynes is an unknown at this point.  He may develop, but he might not.  If we could bring in a FA such as Barr and draft a guy like Polite or Sweat, we would be in good position for the future at LB. 

 

The case for 4-3

DE                                                                                                                                                                                  DT - Short                                                                                                                                                                     DT - Poe                                                                                                                                                                       DE - Addison

OLB - Shaq                                                                                                                                                                   MLB - Luke                                                                                                                                                                   OLB -

CB - Bradberry                                                                                                                                                             CB - Jackson                                                                                                                                                               NB -                                                                                                                                                                               FS -                                                                                                                                                                                SS -

While our recent history has been as a 4-3 defense, that doesn’t mean we are any more set to play that vs. the 3-4.  The fact is that we need to fill as many holes to play 4-3 as 3-4.  Just like I did with the 3-4, let’s take a look at the DL and LB groups.

DL:

We are rail thin at DE.  The only established DE we currently have on the roster is Addison, so if we stay a 4-3 team, we are in desperate need of DE’s…especially pass rushing DE’s.  The problem here is that the legitimate pass rushing DE’s are likely to either be franchised or re-signed prior to FA.  Perhaps someone like Ansah would be available, but he has a significant injury history and I wouldn’t be comfortable relying on him to stay healthy all year.  And in the draft, we are in no mans land.  Most of the top 4-3 DE’s are expected to be long gone by the time our pick comes up, and 16 is a little high for guys like Allen.  So, this need might be tougher to fill than many believe.  It might be one reason the team is considering a switch to a 3-4 (if reports are true).

While many are not happy with either Poe or Short, we will likely be stuck with them for at least one more season.  Personally, I think KK will be better in 2019 and Poe will be better with an improved pass rush.  I would love a guy like Christian Wilkins (whom I believe could also play DE in a 3-4), but we have too many other holes that would greatly benefit by a 1st round pick.  So, unless we are able to trade either KK or Poe for a starting caliber player at another position of need, I just don’t see a DT taken with #16.

LB:

We are set with Luke and Shaq as the starting LB’s (regardless of what you think about Shaq, he will be a starter this year).  However, I’m not sure if Mayo will be back or not (IMO, he’s been somewhat underwhelming), if not, I think the plan will be to have Carter take over the 3rd LB spot.

Bottom Line, if we stay as a 4-3 defense, we will need to find a pass rushing DE from someplace.  IMO, this is the biggest problem with our defense.  We don’t have anybody that can get consistent pressure on the QB, and without that, it makes it very difficult for our back seven.  Without a significant upgrade here, I just don’t see the kind of improvement from our defense that we all want.  We can definitely upgrade other parts of our front seven, but, IMO, that is not as urgent of a need as filling spots we don’t even have a warm body to fill.  I’m also not completely sold on Carter being the answer as the third OLB, so we would also need to make a decision there.

 

Overall, I am not advocating for either defense.  I just want an efficient one that can actually get to the QB next year.  I don’t care if it’s from a 3-4 or 4-3 look.  But I don’t think it is a stretch to think we would be able to switch to a 3-4 if that is what the team wants.  There would be a learning curve, just as you see any time there is a change in philosophy, but I don’t believe it will be as great as some think.  

Like others have said, if we are going to switch to a 3-4, then this is probably the best year to do it.  We have significant needs for either a 3-4 or 4-3.  So, we are not set for any base front.  But we also have parts in place that would allow us to play either scheme, so, with just a few effective tweaks, I think could transform to a solid 3-4 or improve as a 4-3.  

We have basically the same needs for our DB’s.  Bradberry and Jackson should be fine in either scheme, but we are void at nickelback, FS, and SS, no matter what defense we run.  If we re-sign Reid, we will be fine at SS, but no matter what, we will need a new FS and NB.  

So, to run a 3-4, we would need 4-5 starters (DE, OLB, FS, maybe SS, and a 3rd CB).  To continue to run a 4-3, we would need 4-5 starters as well (DE, maybe OLB, FS, maybe SS, and NB).  So, for either defense, we will need 4-5 starting level players, along with depth.  The only real difference is whether they will be 3-4 or 4-3 focused.  

The one thing I will say without hesitation, the decision on whether or not to switch to a 3-4 is not as black and white as some want to portray. 

Thanks for this 

[AU-panther]

I'm sure Luke can play well in either system.  I'm just not sure how logical it is to have that much of your cap tied up in your two Inside Linebackers in a 3-4.

Its not just that we play a 4-3, but the fact we play a lot of Tampa 2 coverage, that places a lot of value on Luke.