Report: Panthers Considering switch to 3-4

[Mr. Scot]

This is what Kyle Bailey was talking about a while back. I guess Person was probably one of his sources.

[CPF4LIFE]

Dont know about the change but it would defintely make drafting a little bit easier going forward. 

[bababoey]

Considering most teams only play base defense maybe 15 to 20 plays a game at most.  Usually less than that.  I don't really think it will make that much of a difference.  The only real difference I see is how much easier it will be to find 3-4 rush lb in the draft.  In seems like that is about the only guys that come out of college any more.

[TheCasillas]

3 minutes ago, KillerKat said:

3 linemen vs 5 Olinemen. Not to mention the TE or FB.

Very rare is there a run play where it is 3 D-linemen vs 5 linemen, is a run play goes into the B gap, the tackle wont even touch the down linemen. The way the TED and MIKE work is to feed off the down linemen eating up blocks and get into the holes of the run.  

 

Ravens, Texans, Titans, Rams,  Steelers and Bears all run a 3-4 and were very effective against the run. 

[TheCasillas]

1 minute ago, bababoey said:

Considering most teams only play base defense maybe 15 to 20 plays a game at most.  Usually less than that.  I don't really think it will make that much of a difference.  The only real difference I see is how much easier it will be to find 3-4 rush lb in the draft.  In seems like that is about the only guys that come out of college any more.

Seem to make a huge difference for the Bears.

[SOJA]

17 minutes ago, SetfreexX said:

The defense doesn't matter the personnel does...as well as the coordinator putting guys in position. 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&season=2018&seasonType=REG&role=OPP&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=1&conference=ALL&d-447263-p=1&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&d-447263-s=TOTAL_POINTS_GAME_AVG

Best defenses in points allowed per game is a mix of 3-4 and 4-3 teams. The main thing trending is there are more tweener OLB / DE's coming out of college, same deal for the OLB/S hybrids. Finding traditional 4-3 defensive ends is harder based on the spread looks in college, defenses are electing for more speed and athleticism upfront. 

We DO NOT have any 3-4 pieces on our roster at the LB position specifically the pass rushing - Luke, Shaq , Carter, Smith etc are all 4-3 LBs. 

None of our current defensive ends would transition well either, Addison can't cover, Peppers if he returns is not at his best in coverage at this point, Haynes has the tools as a speed rusher off the edge, but can't hold the  point of attack based on his size. And if you're considering Obada or Horton it makes no sense. 

It would require an overhaul to make it happen, You could maybe have the front three with Poe at the NT, and KK, and Butler at the DE positions. We'd have to play Shaq, and Luke inside at MLB, and we'd need two 3-4 OLB's. Haynes is a specialist at this point, and like I mentioned I can't see Addision or Peppers at this stage as 3-4 OLB's. 

If we're going to maximize the guys under contract we need to add pieces that fit the defense we run currently, trying to switch to a 3-4 would likely take at least two off-seasons, and I don't think the leash is longer than this year. 

this. we have so many needs this offseason why would we add the headache of getting personnel to run a new defense too. Especially if Rivera is gone after this season anyway. 

[TheCasillas]

3 minutes ago, SOJA said:

this. we have so many needs this offseason why would we add the headache of getting personnel to run a new defense too. Especially if Rivera is gone after this season anyway. 

The only positions to fill is pass rusher... which is already a need.

[Mvp2014]

it needs to be done.  addison and haynes might not cut it long term but its wayyyyy easier to find edge rushers than legit 4-3,  3 down ends

[SOJA]

5 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

The only positions to fill is pass rusher... which is already a need.

Edge in a 3-4 is far different than edge in a 4-3. There are very rare examples of guys that can be effective in both 

[TheCasillas]

Just now, SOJA said:

Edge in a 3-4 is far different than edge in a 4-3. There are very rare examples of guys that can be effective in both 

but we would need either/or and heading into free agency with a base defense in mind is how we would determine who. So the "so many holes" you specified, realistically would be equal to the same needs.... Going back to your statement does this really mean we have too many holes to fill before we could change the defense? When realistically the hole we need to fill is either DE or OLB base on what we choose...

[Woodie]

With so much back and forth on this issue, I decided to take a look at the viability of both the 3-4 and 4-3 for the Panthers next season.

***Please forgive the formatting, for some reason it looks correct when I type it, but gets screwed up when I post.

The Case for 3-4                                

DE - Short                                                                                                                                                                     DT - Poe                                                                                                                                                                  DE -            

OLB - Addison                                                                                                                                                             ILB - Kuechly                                                                                                                                                               ILB - Shaq                                                                                                                                                              OLB -      

CB - Bradberry                                                                                                                                                             CB - Jackson                                                                                                                                                               SS -                                                                                                                                                                               FS -

So, to switch to a 3-4 base defense, we would need to add a handful of starters.  Yes, there is some projection in this, but they are reasonable projections.  Let’s take a look at the DL and LB groups (because these are the primary areas of contention).

DL:                                                                                                                                                                                 At one DE spot, we would have Short.  The rule of thumb is that a 3-4 DE would play a 3 tech in a 4-3, and vice versa.  So, this is a natural projection, but beyond that, KK has the quickness, power, and size to excel at end in a 3-4.  Heck, there was talk at one point of him being able to play DE in a 4-3, so this should be an easy transition.  Poe is a natural NT, and has previously played very well in a 3-4, so this isn’t a projection at all.

We would still need a 2nd DE.  Maybe Butler could step up there, or maybe we’d bring back Horton, who would be undersized at DE in a 3-4.  Most likely, we’d pencil in Butler there, and bring in a FA or draft pick to compete for the spot.

LB:                                                                                                                                                                                 Both Luke and Shaq should do well at ILB in a 3-4.  They each have the size and traits to play the position.  While Luke can easily play in any system, Shaq fits the physical and intellectual criteria to play in a 3-4 as well.

The biggest point of contention is whether or not Addison can transition to 3-4 OLB.  Personally, I think he can…if nothing else, he’d be a decent stopgap.  His play is based on speed and quickness, and he has learned how to get to the QB.  I actually think that a switch might be good for him.  While he already has the size and speed to play OLB, he could probably lose a good 10-15 lbs. and add even more quickness without sacrificing much power. Also, giving him more space to work with could improve his ability to get to the QB.  Addison would be a primary pass rusher, and as such, probably wouldn’t be asked to drop into coverage very often.  So, while that would be a weakness, I don’t think it would be a major issue. 

It was a surprise when a 4-3 team drafted Haynes since most seemed to think he’d fit better in a 3-4.  So, the move would likely be a boon for him.  He also would only need to add 10-15 lbs. (which he’s probably already working on) rather than the 25-30 to play DE in a 4-3.

Bottom line is that if the team does switch to a 3-4, they have some holes that will need to be addressed in the offseason.  We’d definitely need to add a DE to compete with Butler, who there is no way we can count on at this point.  We’d also need to add probably two OLB’s.  Even if Addison does thrive, he wouldn’t be the long-term answer as he is already on the downside of his career.  And Haynes is an unknown at this point.  He may develop, but he might not.  If we could bring in a FA such as Barr and draft a guy like Polite or Sweat, we would be in good position for the future at LB. 

 

The case for 4-3

DE                                                                                                                                                                                  DT - Short                                                                                                                                                                     DT - Poe                                                                                                                                                                       DE - Addison

OLB - Shaq                                                                                                                                                                   MLB - Luke                                                                                                                                                                   OLB -

CB - Bradberry                                                                                                                                                             CB - Jackson                                                                                                                                                               NB -                                                                                                                                                                               FS -                                                                                                                                                                                SS -

While our recent history has been as a 4-3 defense, that doesn’t mean we are any more set to play that vs. the 3-4.  The fact is that we need to fill as many holes to play 4-3 as 3-4.  Just like I did with the 3-4, let’s take a look at the DL and LB groups.

DL:

We are rail thin at DE.  The only established DE we currently have on the roster is Addison, so if we stay a 4-3 team, we are in desperate need of DE’s…especially pass rushing DE’s.  The problem here is that the legitimate pass rushing DE’s are likely to either be franchised or re-signed prior to FA.  Perhaps someone like Ansah would be available, but he has a significant injury history and I wouldn’t be comfortable relying on him to stay healthy all year.  And in the draft, we are in no mans land.  Most of the top 4-3 DE’s are expected to be long gone by the time our pick comes up, and 16 is a little high for guys like Allen.  So, this need might be tougher to fill than many believe.  It might be one reason the team is considering a switch to a 3-4 (if reports are true).

While many are not happy with either Poe or Short, we will likely be stuck with them for at least one more season.  Personally, I think KK will be better in 2019 and Poe will be better with an improved pass rush.  I would love a guy like Christian Wilkins (whom I believe could also play DE in a 3-4), but we have too many other holes that would greatly benefit by a 1st round pick.  So, unless we are able to trade either KK or Poe for a starting caliber player at another position of need, I just don’t see a DT taken with #16.

LB:

We are set with Luke and Shaq as the starting LB’s (regardless of what you think about Shaq, he will be a starter this year).  However, I’m not sure if Mayo will be back or not (IMO, he’s been somewhat underwhelming), if not, I think the plan will be to have Carter take over the 3rd LB spot.

Bottom Line, if we stay as a 4-3 defense, we will need to find a pass rushing DE from someplace.  IMO, this is the biggest problem with our defense.  We don’t have anybody that can get consistent pressure on the QB, and without that, it makes it very difficult for our back seven.  Without a significant upgrade here, I just don’t see the kind of improvement from our defense that we all want.  We can definitely upgrade other parts of our front seven, but, IMO, that is not as urgent of a need as filling spots we don’t even have a warm body to fill.  I’m also not completely sold on Carter being the answer as the third OLB, so we would also need to make a decision there.

 

Overall, I am not advocating for either defense.  I just want an efficient one that can actually get to the QB next year.  I don’t care if it’s from a 3-4 or 4-3 look.  But I don’t think it is a stretch to think we would be able to switch to a 3-4 if that is what the team wants.  There would be a learning curve, just as you see any time there is a change in philosophy, but I don’t believe it will be as great as some think.  

Like others have said, if we are going to switch to a 3-4, then this is probably the best year to do it.  We have significant needs for either a 3-4 or 4-3.  So, we are not set for any base front.  But we also have parts in place that would allow us to play either scheme, so, with just a few effective tweaks, I think could transform to a solid 3-4 or improve as a 4-3.  

We have basically the same needs for our DB’s.  Bradberry and Jackson should be fine in either scheme, but we are void at nickelback, FS, and SS, no matter what defense we run.  If we re-sign Reid, we will be fine at SS, but no matter what, we will need a new FS and NB.  

So, to run a 3-4, we would need 4-5 starters (DE, OLB, FS, maybe SS, and a 3rd CB).  To continue to run a 4-3, we would need 4-5 starters as well (DE, maybe OLB, FS, maybe SS, and NB).  So, for either defense, we will need 4-5 starting level players, along with depth.  The only real difference is whether they will be 3-4 or 4-3 focused.  

The one thing I will say without hesitation, the decision on whether or not to switch to a 3-4 is not as black and white as some want to portray. 

[TheCasillas]

4 minutes ago, Woodie said:

We have basically the same needs for our DB’s.  Bradberry and Jackson should be fine in either scheme, but we are void at nickelback, FS, and SS, no matter what defense we run.  If we re-sign Reid, we will be fine at SS, but no matter what, we will need a new FS and NB.  

Don't forget about Ross Cockrell. Also, I fully expect Gaulden to be our FS next year. I believe Perry Fewell hire has a lot to do with his growth along with jackson.

[TheSpecialJuan]

how exciting 

[Woodie]

I'm not sure on Cockrell.  If they can get a cheaper alternative, I could see them cutting him for his cap savings.  I think it depends on who's available and at what cost.  But if he is the guy, then I hope he's a significant upgrade to Munnerlyn.

I also tend to think that they want Gaulden to be the guy next year, but I don't know what they really think of him after getting a limited view of him this year.  If we don't look to upgrade either from FA or in the draft, then that will answer that question, but I still have reservations, so I'll take a wait and see position on him.