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Eric Reid on another drug test

WarPanthers89

By WarPanthers89,
in Carolina Panthers

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Posted
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4 hours ago, GOOGLE JIM BOB COOTER said:

 

 

First off I am not saying that the NFL is NOT targeting Reid... but all the "math" that says it's impossible is ridiculous.  

Yes 7 times is alot.. it's actually 6 because the first one was not random it was part of the physical that every new player has to take... but still 6 in 11 weeks!! That's crazy right!!! 

In fact, it turns out to be 1 / 588... well to be specific so I don't get yelled at that is the probability that Reid would have been test AT LEAST 6 times in 11 weeks.  Don't believe me?  Well google Cumulative Binomial Probability and work it out yourself, or just punch it into a wolfram if you know how... also this uses the 72 testable players on a team with 10 random test assigned per week... This DOESN'T account for anything that has to do with how they test previous offenders more often and how that effects the non offenders.  Sorry, I couldn't find that info online and no one is paying me to investigate this so whatever... But seriously, why are they testing 72 players?  I mean, isn't it kinda weird that they test the practice squad instead of focusing on the 53 that got helmets that week?  Who really cares if your practice squad is juicing if they never make the active roster???  Yea, anyway, so back on topic. 

Anyway, sound pretty improbable...  Well so is winning the lottery, but what does almost everyone say when they buy a ticket??? "Someone has to win!!"  <--That is a rationalization though... don't do that, unless you want to... I don't actually care... Unless you have a problem... okay back to topic. 

So what are the real odds that this would happen?  What are the odds it would happen to 1 person in the league?  What about 2 people in the league?  What are the odds that one of those people would be a "target"??  Great question!! Problem would be defining "target" as it's so subjective, in the article they said players suing the NFL are the "targets" but be serious, it would be much bigger than that.  I mean Reid would be a "target" even if he wasn't suing the league so that's a ridiculous way to define your subset of target players, other than the fact that it makes the article way more appealing cause it "PROVES HOW IMPROBABLE IT IS!!!".  I'm not even gonna call it stupid cause I'm pretty sure they used it on purpose to make math fit the story and the story more appealing but it's truly meaningless statistics.  So I guess in theory anyone who the NFL "doesn't like" is a proper subset for your "target" group... yea I don't know how to quantify that and I don't know of anyway to determine every players current relationship with the NFL so I'll let yall decide that... anyway, more on that at the end. 

So to do this properly you have to use the Bernoulli process to get some real usable stats... and that comes out to be... I don't know.  I didn't do it... I don't know how to punch that equation into any of my calculators so I won't do it... but maybe I can get someone else to do it!!! wait for the end. 

Anyway, someone does have to win the lottery... And it's actually very easy to calculate the probability that AT LEAST 1 player in the NFL would get 6 drug test in 11weeks?? How impossible is it??!?!???!!   Well it's 

1 - (1 - 1/588)^(32×72)   = 0.980192667360334... basically 98% chance that this would happen to at least one player in the NFL.  So... Not That Improbable... actually extremely probable.  

Which is 1/588 the probability it happens to one player... 1 - that is the probability it DOES NOT happen to one player... raised to the power of 32 x 72... 72 testable players on all 32 teams... and that gives you the chance it doesn't happen... subtract it from 1 to get probability it DOES happen and move the decimal point so we can add the user friendly % symbol... Yay. 

Anyway,  this isn't meant to "prove" that Reid was or was not targeted!!! It was meant to show that all these articles that are using "math" to show how impossible it is that Reid would be selected are just plain old crap news that wants a fun story more than a good one.  To try and determine the likely hood that Reid was targeted would be more than I know how to do off the top of my head... but someone can, so I asked a bunch of math guys here: https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/3048087/the-probability-that-eric-reid-nfl-player-is-being-targeted-with-6-drug-test-i So lets see what they say... 

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16 minutes ago, GOOGLE JIM BOB COOTER said:

oh and from your link:

lol no poo. how often do you beg strangers online to do your homework for you?

 

20 minutes ago, GOOGLE JIM BOB COOTER said:

no one said it's impossible dumbass. also nothing you said runs counter to the argument advanced in the article that you apparently didn't read. i'm genuinely embarrassed for you right now. that was a lot of words to not make a single point lol. switch back to your main if you want to continue this conversation.

Wow, you are WAY to mad right now... 

Ok, sorry, not gonna flame back, if you think my math I did in 5 minutes is wrong then point it out... I won't even care... promise... pinky swear... 

My little post was clearly referring to the many articles out there, I'm truly sorry yours was the one I included on my post, it was literally just there and easy to grab, and NO I didn't read the whole thing I only schemed it because I wasn't trying to do a peer review... and don't answer back with, "we aren't peers" or something like that it's too easy. 

 No it's not my wheelhouse, I do something else for work... But is my math wrong?

Instead of being all mad why don't you throw something constructive that shows my math is wrong or misleading... Here I give you an example

Mad Guy: The final equation in your post only shows the percentage that it would happen to any one random person, that has nothing to do with actually targeting a particular individual or set of individuals. 

Me: Yes I know, I was simply showing try to put things in perspective because intuitively it 6 out of 11 times seems very very unlikely. 

Mad Guy: Well maybe you should have said so in your article. 

Me: Maybe I should have, i don't know, I don't care, it's a message board.  

I wait for your next post with anticipation, unless my program compiles and runs then I'm going for food and I'll check back later... But I hope you have a good night.  Maybe you should take a walk? Get some air... 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, GOOGLE JIM BOB COOTER said:

nick kapoor said that the chance that a player would be selected 6 times in 11 opportunities is about .17%

this coward too afraid to post from his main seems to be arguing that the chance is actually 1/588 or .17% and that this is actually in support of whatever the fug he's trying to say. you pied it because the content didn't matter, only the place from which he was arguing. good job there you look real smart right now lmao

i'm honestly baffled by the entire post but that's the highlight

You realize that this supports my math right?  In both article we came up with the same chance for 1/588?  I even told you the formula to use... 

I mean, do you really look at my math and think... "he didn't realize that 1/588 is the same as 17% approximately"?

Dude... come on man... 

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12 minutes ago, GOOGLE JIM BOB COOTER said:

yall better start pestering the mods to close or move this thread because this is really making me lol and im gonna keep it on the front page so others get the chance to laugh too

Dude, face it, there is only one person here who is looking like an idiot. 

On a side note, people have started to respond in math community, here is the link again, I hope this gets to be a hot topic on their board.  If anyone thinks I should add anything to the post just let me know and I will.  Here is the link again: https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/3048087/the-probability-that-eric-reid-nfl-player-is-being-targeted-with-6-drug-test-i 

 

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2 minutes ago, GOOGLE JIM BOB COOTER said:

in hindsight it was probably a smart move to register a new account for this argument because there's no coming back from this one

I registered a new account because I'm new here.  Use to be on the forum at panthers.com but when that went away I just never went to another one.  But thank you for the warm welcome!!!

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