LET'S TALK STATISTICS IN A CALM MANNER RE: CAROLINA VS. TAMPA BAY THIS SUNDAY

[Broku]

Let’s breakdown some of the key statistical match-ups versus TB this week.  Breaking down stats on a matchup is a fun exercise can’t say I’m above it, my only rule is never break down special team stats cuz that’s definitelllyyyy for psychos I mean I’m sure you’ll live if I fail to mention how many punts Palardy has pinned inside of the 20 this  year or how many touchbacks Gano’s caused off of

 

 

 

 

Either way, let’s get this going.  Starting with the 1^st matchup:

 

Tampa Bay DL versus Carolina O-line.

 

Tampa Bay defense currently sits at 13^th in the league in total sacks.  Not too shabby to be within the top 15 league wide.   The counter here though is that Carolina ranks 2^nd in the league in sacks allowed per game on offense. Damn what a refreshing breath of air.   Carolina definitely has an advantage here when you scrutinize those numbers in that light.  The Panthers sure have come a long way on that front when you consider that I’m pretty sure the entire O-line could’ve been charged with conspiracy to commit murder back in 16’.  What a fun year.

 

Fun fact:  3 of the NFC’s projected playoff teams (NO, CAR, WAS) rank within the top 10 of total sacks allowed on offense

 

Let’s break it down further though. Let’s talk QB hits. 

 

Carolina sits at 3^rd fewest in the league at a total of 27 QB hits allowed on the year. The O-line is protecting Cam so far and I truly believe that is leading to our success. When it comes to this matchup the decision is obvious because the numbers don’t lie.

 

 

Winner:   the good guys.

 

 

Now let’s dive into key matchup #2

 

Carolina pass defense vs. Tampa Bay pass offense

 

Raise your hand if you knew that TAMPA BAY has the NUMBER ONE rated pass offense based on yards per game.  They average 376.3 yards through the air every game.  If you raised your hand, you should be shot because you’re a bold face liar, and we all know where they go. This stat is crazy because they’re in first with a hugee lead over 2^nd.  They average about 60 pass yards per game more than NUMBER TWO in the league. 

 

In case you were wondering, the first loser in that category is the Atlanta Falcons coming in at #2 there in total pass offense.

 

 

I really wish Mercedez Benz would change their company name one day a year to “First Loser” just in the name of good ol’ fashioned trolling.  Make it the 5^th of February every year and make a holiday out of it.  Getting back to the matter at hand though, Let’s compare the Tampa Bay pass offense numbers to the Carolina passing defensive numbers.  The cats only allow an average of 255.1 pass yards per game.  When you compare these numbers it screams “SOMETHING’S GOT TO GIVE HERE” so that will be the real sticking point in regards to why the hell you would expect anything but a blowout in this game in the first place.   This is the matchup to watch and if we can hold the Bucs to a low pass yardage this game, it’ll scream louder that we’re legit as a team.

 

 

Fun fact: right now the Dallas Cowboys are leading the league in the least amount of pass yards allowed per game.  Feels like they're a playoff team.

 

 

To conclude my point though, when you look at the TB pass offense vs. the CAR pass defense it looks like

 

 

Winner:  Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

 

Next up we’ve got:  

 

 

Tampa OL vs. Carolina DL

 

 

Carolina currently ranks #11 in total sacks per game on defense.  Not bad when your almost top 10 in the league.  The pass rush has honestly been pretty mediocre but this feels like a get right game on that front.  TB is ranked 9^th in the league in total sacks allowed on offense.  This feels like a push here.   This is another one of those matchups to keep an eye on.  It goes without mention that if Carolina can generate pressure with the front 4 that its going to be a lot easier of a day for them on pass defense.  But nonetheless

 

 

Winner:  Nobody

 

 

Key matchup #3: 

 

Run defense for both teams.

 

Tampa Bay is ranked 7^th defensively in total rush yards per attempt allowed a game at a respectable 4.2 yards allowed per run. That is actually better than the Carolina Panthers  defensively who sit at #9 allowing 4.4 yards per rush attempt.  So if they both ran the ball against each other 100 times, given these numbers,  the Bucs would gain 440 yards compared to the panthers gaining 420.  Which is absolutely pointless to bring up because they’re never going to play each other 5 times in year. Let’s just say that Tampa is a sliver better on paper at defending the run. 

 

However,

 

This seems like a good time to compare the rushing offense for both these teams.

 

The home team has the #1 ranked rushing attack based on yards gained per carry.  That’s huge.  It helps when you have the greatest rushing threat QB of all time on your team.   This should be expected every year in that regard.   There’s no reason the Panthers shouldn’t be #1 in rushing offense every season. 

 

Tampa sits at #14 in the league at a 3.8 yard per carry clip.  Nowhere close to #1 in the league at that regard.  Tampa is pedestrian at running the ball.  Completely different leagues of the sea in that manner.  These numbers make me feel like we’re going to aid in regressing Tampa’s run defense back to the mean on Sunday.  It’s easier to be a higher ranked rush D when you haven’t had the pleasure of facing the #2 ranked rushing offense this year yet.  Feels like a big day on the ground for Carolina but techincally-

 

Winner:  Nobody

 

Key matchup #4:

 

Carolina pass offense vs. Tampa pass defense.

 

Carolina’s pass offense currently sits at #11 in the league when you’re talking total pass yards a game.  Compared to the Tampa bay pass defense which averages 318.4 pass yards per game allowed which is the WORST IN THE LEAGUE.  This seems like a real “live by the sword/die by the sword” type of stat when you consider that they’re the #1 pass offense in the league right now.   Sure, you guys can pass but how does that help you when the bad guys can do the exact same poo to you?   I’d normally say to expect us to be pass heavy but that’s simply not the Panther way.   This aspect will give you a better understanding as to whether coaching is the problem for this team or not.  I’d love to see a DJ Moore breakout game on Sunday.  The ingredients to the storm are there.

 

Winner:  the good guys

 

 

Matchup #5:

 

 

TB Special teams vs. CAR Special teams

 

HAHAHA DON'T LET THE BOLD ITALICIZED FONT FOOL YA I'M NOT BREAKIN DOWN SPECIAL TEAMS BUT I DID HEAR THAT GANO HIT A 63 YARDER TO WIN A GAME THIS YEAR  

 

Let’s talk intangibles instead.

 

Key matchup #6:  Intangibles

 

We’re playing at the vault.  Tampa Bay seems like a decent team overall but there’s just something about this Carolina team at home.   If we’re talking coaching, Ron Rivera is a better coach than Dirk Koetter.  Numbers don’t lie there.   How many Super Bowl’s has Dirk Koetter taken his team to?   Look it up.  I’ll wait….      

 

  

Winner: the good guys

 

 

So there you have it.

 

On paper there’s a lot to learn about this game.  Will Carolina’s D limit the TB offense in the air?  Will we still assert dominance on the ground?  Will we be a pass happy attack on Sunday?   Who knows, but these are the numbers and you know what they say about numbers being hell-adverse.

 

 

FINAL THOUGHTS: 

 

 

At a glance, I felt like this was an easy Carolina win and I still do.  Sure Carolina has more to prove in regards to their pass defense and their pass rush but playing in Charlotte makes all the difference IMO.  There's no way that Tampa lights us up through the air the way they're accustomed to.   Honestly this is an opportunity for the pass defense to make a statement.   We'll all have a good idea of what kind've game it'll be by the time halftime rolls around.   In regards to intangibles, I feel like those are going to make a bigger difference than you think.   You really think TB expects to waltz into The Vault and get a win?   Nah.  TB knows they're going to lose here.   I don't doubt that at all.   We need to execute the run game and be stout with the pass D to make this thing work on Sunday.    That's the deal here. 

 

 

 

That’s all folks.  Thanks for reading.

 

 

-Broku

[New York Panther]

It's interesting how close were are statistically in a few areas. Yet It's funny because the eye test shows we are a far superior team. TB messed up their momentum by prematurely benching Fitzmagic. Something tells me that we harass Fitz just like we did Flacco. I got us winning by atleast 15.

#KEEP POUNDING!

ON A SIDE NOTE- Our home field advantage is becoming visably noticeable than in recent years..... similar to 2008 level where we went 8-0 at home that year. I like us at home against anyone this year

[Moose Hoover]

i like at roast beef butween your legs

[4Corners]

Game is gonna be a lot closer than people want to admit. Huge red flag for me when the huddle starts saying “easy win for us” but good post with some good takes and breakdown 

[jfra78]

17 minutes ago, 4Corners said:

Game is gonna be a lot closer than people want to admit. Huge red flag for me when the huddle starts saying “easy win for us” but good post with some good takes and breakdown 

Easy win for us

[4Corners]

41 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

Easy win for us

Damn it

guaranteed loss now 

[bababoey]

This OP is brought to you by people that like list and old people that don't want to wear glasses.

[Broku]

14 hours ago, New York Panther said:

It's interesting how close were are statistically in a few areas. Yet It's funny because the eye test shows we are a far superior team. TB messed up their momentum by prematurely benching Fitzmagic. Something tells me that we harass Fitz just like we did Flacco. I got us winning by atleast 15.

#KEEP POUNDING!

ON A SIDE NOTE- Our home field advantage is becoming visably noticeable than in recent years..... similar to 2008 level where we went 8-0 at home that year. I like us at home against anyone this year

We’ve been great at home for a consistent amount of time now.  That doesn’t get a ton of attention though. 

[JARROD]

What’s the turnover differential?

thats the key to the game

[GusLevy]

My read on the TB/Car game is confidence in Car having gained lineup stability, coaching comfort and home field advantages versus a team facing a dysfunctional locker room on the road. Unfortunately, the huge wild card in this game is Fitzmagic - if the magic shows, anything is possible.

 

TB is a dangerous team because they play like a wild stallion - little discipline but physically gifted. They are on pace to be the first team in NFL history to pass for 6k yds at this point. They are also on pace to give up 5k yds passing which suggests that moving the ball in chunks may have a direct correlation to having the ball moved against you in chunks as well.

TB is a one-trick pony. They avg 91yds/game on the ground - this is under 20% of their Total Yds each game which is woefully unbalanced. By contrast, the top 2 statistical offenses are at 34% (Rams) and 37% (Car).

Beyond all the basic metrics which show two completely different teams, TB and Car reflect coaching differences based on Penalties and Turnovers as well. At times TB’s freewheeling style makes them fun to watch and seemingly effective, but for all the beautiful passes up and down the field, TB is a poorly coached team as reflected by ranking 4th in penalties and 1st in turnovers. Penalties and Turnovers result in stalled drives, losing of field position and changes of possession - NFL games are lost this way the majority of the time.

In contrast, Car is the 6th least penalized team and 7th least in turnovers. A balanced offense, a strong defense, few mistakes...the simple recipe to NFL success.

Winston has accounted for over half of TBs turnovers while playing about half their games. Fitzpatrick has looked either like an All-Pro or an Ivy League backup during his career. Most of the boxes click for Car but if Fitzmagic shows up, then the TB team that has lost several games inside 1 score this year may become the TB team that covers at Car for the third time in the past 4 games in Charlotte.