So why are the Ravens favored?

[GusLevy]

 

I would love to see our record as favourites vs underdogs.    The games this season could have gone either way, let your gut decide who will win.

Carolina in last 30 games as fav: 19-11 su, 12-15-3 ats

Carolina in last 30 games as dog: 14-15-1 su, 19-11 ats

Carolina in last 10 games as home dog: 5-5 su, 7-3 ats

Carolina has been very respectable with respect to Vegas expectations, esp as a dog equally home and away winning half the games SU and about 2/3 ATS. The last 10 as the home dog shows Carolina as a strong angle.

 

IMO, the Ravens are favored in this game because they are very strong at this point of the season in power metrics. They are the top scoring defense in the league, 2nd in +/- only to the Rams, and Flacco has been reasonably solid. Betting power rankings have them in the Top 5 while Carolina is ranked about 12.

Like all fan bases, Carolina fans overestimate the talent of their team because that is the only team that they focus on. The over/under on wins for Carolina this year was 9, so the realistic expectations were that this team’s roster and schedule placed them out of the playoffs and slightly above the middle-of-the-pack.

Car is 3-3 ats while Balt is 4-3 ats currently...for me, it’s hard to have a feel for this game. There is no reason for any side of the bet to feel confident in this basically toss up game...either straight up or vs the spread. It will prob come down to turnovers, penalties and special teams. I picked Car as the home dog given Rivera’s good record there vs Balt being neutral on the road.

[Goondal]

Three weeks ago we needed to pull a 63 yard FG out of our bleep and we have only looked decent for twenty minutes combined over the past two weeks.

If an identical situation arose not involving the Panthers where the team in our situation were favored it would make little sense to me.

[mc52beast]

If you were an unbiased fan knowing how poorly we have played would you seriously put money on us?

[Camp Fodder]

7 minutes ago, GusLevy said:

Carolina in last 30 games as fav: 19-11 su, 12-15-3 ats

Carolina in last 30 games as dog: 14-15-1 su, 19-11 ats

Carolina in last 10 games as home dog: 5-5 su, 7-3 ats

Carolina has been very respectable with respect to Vegas expectations, esp as a dog equally home and away winning half the games SU and about 2/3 ATS. The last 10 as the home dog shows Carolina as a strong angle.

 

IMO, the Ravens are favored in this game because they are very strong at this point of the season in power metrics. They are the top scoring defense in the league, 2nd in +/- only to the Rams, and Flacco has been reasonably solid. Betting power rankings have them in the Top 5 while Carolina is ranked about 12.

Like all fan bases, Carolina fans overestimate the talent of their team because that is the only team that they focus on. The over/under on wins for Carolina this year was 9, so the realistic expectations were that this team’s roster and schedule placed them out of the playoffs and slightly above the middle-of-the-pack.

Car is 3-3 ats while Balt is 4-3 ats currently...for me, it’s hard to have a feel for this game. There is no reason for any side of the bet to feel confident in this basically toss up game...either straight up or vs the spread. It will prob come down to turnovers, penalties and special teams. I picked Car as the home dog given Rivera’s good record there vs Balt being neutral on the road.

That was my ask though. Toss up games almost always favors the home team. If you go out and look and see who the home dogs are this week you will see the visiting team is clearly better.  It isn’t a tossup. Hell even the giants are not a home dog and they have 1 win

[Peppers90 NC]

I do like this nugget:

Trends to know: The Ravens are allowing 14.4 points per game this season, fewest in the NFL by more than three points. In Cam Newton’s career, he has faced a defense in October or later allowing fewer than 17 PPG five times.

According to our Bet Labs data, the Panthers are 4-1 against the spread in those five games, but more importantly, Carolina has averaged 25 points. — Evan Abrams

The Ravens are off a home loss against the Saints last week and many may think Baltimore is a good bet to bounce back.

But over the past five seasons, Joe Flacco is just 1-4-2 ATS the game after a home loss and in Flacco’s career he is just 7-9-2 ATS, including 5-7-1 ATS on the road after a home loss. — Abrams

 

[GusLevy]

 

That was my ask though. Toss up games almost always favors the home team. If you go out and look and see who the home dogs are this week you will see the visiting team is clearly better.  It isn’t a tossup. Hell even the giants are not a home dog and they have 1 win

Well, based on the power metrics this game is not a pick’em game - Balt is objectively the stronger team as they would be an approx 5pt fav on a neutral field. My toss-up reference refers to the fact that Car is at home and Rivera’s home dog record makes the objective outcome in doubt. It’s a game where any result is plausible but nobody feels comfortable putting $ behind any one outcome. I certainly don’t...I did have a lot of confidence that Hou was going to win big last night tho!

 

As for this week, there are 5 home dogs and I don’t share your conclusion that all the visiting teams are clearly better: NYG, OAK are dogs and arguably have better talent but not playing to potential. JAX is home dog in London so not relevant. NE/Bills is the only clear one but at 14pts that is a scary game as only 30-40% fav cover those puts in the NFL.

 

As always, weird things and results occur each week in the NFL so it should be fun and good luck.

[GoPanthers123]

What if with new players and staff we needed time to figure out the optimal rotation and plays?  And to add to that what if the last qtr of last game was the Eureka moment and we continue playing that way on Sunday?   It may be the case for all we know.

[Utah_Saint]

Because Vegas doesn't read The Huddle.

[kmgreensman]

I can't believe they were favored over the Saints last week!  That was a home game and this is on the road, but they are getting serious respect from Vegas.

 

I just hope we don't come out flat. I want to see ONE game where we just come out firing on all and continue till the end of the game.