“Am I watching the same team as y’all” Part 2 (message for the homers edition)

[yayfootball]

6 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

Can't really fully explain that though. It's not like people didn't know Andrew Norwell was going to be good, yet it still took an injury to get him on the field.

If it was so obvious that Andrew Norwell was going to be good, then every team in the league made a huge mistake by not drafting him. And it's not like he played at some small school nobody's ever heard of; Norwell played at Ohio State. Guaranteed, every scouting department/coaching staff saw tape of his games, and no one thought he was worth spending even a 7th round pick on. But Ron Rivera is bad at making personnel decisions because it took him 7 games to put Norwell in the lineup? There are certainly some things that Rivera deserves to be criticized for - his clock management at the end of both halves against the Giants was atrocious - but this particular one just doesn't hold water. This is like the Amini Silatolu of all possible criticisms of Rivera: there's no need to keep bringing it up when there are Andrew Norwell-quality criticisms we could be discussing.

[yayfootball]

10 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

I'll repeat here what I said elsewhere...

At Super Bowl 38, John Fox's coaching staff saw that the game was going badly, so they flipped the script at halftime. And in doing so, they brought us closer to a championship than we've been at any point since.

Can anyone tell me what significant steps Rivera did to change how things were going at halftime of Super Bowl 50?

Do we know if he did anything at all? It's not like Rivera was known for great halftime adjustments even before that game.

And unfortunately, it's not just that.

There's also the fact that with two weeks to prepare, and having been blown up just a few weeks before, Rivera and staff chose to do nothing different.

I'm not really sure people understand just how unforgivably stupid a decision that really was.

You had a defensive genius like Wade Phillips on the other side. Philips had 18 games worth of game film to review, notably including the Atlanta game. And in the face of that, you choose to just go ahead and do the same things you were doing in the tapes that Phillips is watching.

Seriously?

I'm still waiting for anybody to take that comparison between how Fox (who is by no means an elite head coach) handled the Super Bowl and how Rivera did and argue that Rivera is a championship level coach. Keep in mind that Fox and his staff we're working with Jake Delhomme. Rivera had Cam Newton.

I'll make that comparison:

With regards to SB XXXVIII being the closest we've ever come to winning a Super Bowl, you can't give Fox credit for the Patriots missing two FGs from inside 40 yards in the first half. If they hit those, we never would have had possession of the ball with a deficit of less than 10 points in the second half. On the other hand, in SB 50 we gave up a long punt return to set up a FG when our players just stopped running (possibly because they believed a fair catch had been called), and Gano missed an easy FG in the third quarter. Without those special teams gaffes, the game would have been tied in the second half. The point is that while it's a fact that we came closer to winning SB XXXVIII than SB 50, that would be easily reversed by changing a small number of events that lie outside the coach's control, so you really can't use that fact to infer anything about the relative strengths of the coaching staffs.

Now, what about halftime adjustments? It's true that the Panthers played better in the second half of SB XXXVIII, mounting 3 long scoring drives. But while not as obvious, the same is true of SB 50. In their first drive of the second half, the Panthers drove 54 yards, then got a WR matched up on a LB running deep down the sideline. When it comes to putting your players in a position to succeed, you can't do much better than that. But Von Miller made a great play, and Cotchery couldn't hang on to the ball, and Gano went on to miss the FG, so that drive yielded no points. On the next drive, the Panthers drove 52 yards before Ginn let a pass that probably would have resulted in a first down go straight through his hands for an interception. Overall, those two drives produced over 1/3 (106 yards / 315 yards) of our offense for the game, but didn't produce any points because our players failed to make plays that were there for them to make. So whatever we decided to do at halftime clearly worked. I would not hold up this game as evidence that Rivera is bad at making halftime adjustments.

Final thing on the SBs, if we're going to keep in mind that Fox had Delhomme while Rivera had Newton, then we should also remember that Fox had Steve Smith, Mushin Muhammad, and Ricky Proehl while Rivera had Ginn, Funchess, and Cotchery.

None of this is to say that there aren't valid criticisms of Rivera. There most certainly are. But pointing at one bad result without specific criticisms of the process that produced that result (pointing out that results in the second half were not better than results in the first half is not a criticism of the process) as evidence that Rivera isn't a "championship level" coach is just as nonsensical as using one good result to claim that Rivera is a "championship level" coach.

By the way (sorry, I know this post is getting long), I was curious about how the Panthers have done coming out of halftime since you brought up halftime adjustments. So I searched for all drives that started between 15:00 and 10:00 left in the third quarter (the original idea was to look at the first drive after halftime, but I couldn't find a way to search for that), and compared them to drives in the first half. This is probably the purest measurement of halftime adjustments you can make since teams will not yet have had a chance to make counter adjustments to their opponents' halftime adjustments.

First half under Rivera: CAR TD% - 23.8, CAR Score% - 40, OPP TD% - 16.6, OPP Score% - 34.7

Start of Q3 under Rivera: CAR TD% - 33.8, CAR Score% - 46.2, OPP TD% - 21.7, OPP Score% - 33.3

First half under Fox: CAR TD% - 16.9, CAR Score% - 29.8, OPP TD% - 16.8, OPP Score% - 29.5

Start of Q3 under Fox: CAR TD% - 15.5, CAR Score% - 29.9, OPP TD% - 17.1, OPP Score% - 29.8

Under Rivera, the Panthers have seen a big jump in their scoring at the start of the second half. This is not normal: our opponents during the same time period had a small increase in TD% but an overall decrease in Score%. Under John Fox, things were pretty much identical at the start of the second half. There may be other coaches who are even better, but the data indicate that Rivera is actually pretty good at making adjustments when he has a halftime break to think it over.

[*FreeFua*]

6 hours ago, Doc Holiday said:

Dude seriously what is your problem? since 2011 (rivera's first year) we 7-8 against the saints end of story there.

I'm honestly tired with the insistent BS of this entire conversation. it started about overall record of the last 5-6 years(recent history) which you still havent address, no your gifs dont count, and now youve been doing nothing but cherry picking to try and prove something that isnt true.

why dont you look at his overall record for the last 5 years like I mentioned originally? you know because its something that cant be argued, and is concrete. becuase your record is what it is right? all the other BS aside your record is the only thing that matters.

Youve been avoiding it because it destorys your fuging argument!!! so since you have been avoiding it the entire damn time I will bring it up for you!!!

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trends/win_trends/?range=yearly_since_2013

end fuging argument end fuging thread. 

You said Sean Payton, he’s 5-8 vs Sean Payton end of story. 

You can’t just base everything off of since Rivera entered the league. So are we taking Payton’s SB away from him because it was before Rivera became a coach? No.

Again if you read the thread the question is more so if he can get us over the final hurdle and win us a SB. Rivera is a tier 2 coach, he’s good enough to get by but in many of our opinions not good enough to win the SB. 

So while you sit here pounding your chest over division titles and zero back to back winning seasons, I’ll see Rivera for what he is... a guy who continuously makes the same mistakes year after year and is fortunate enough to have been given a gift in Cam. 

[Tepper's Chest Hair]

1 hour ago, *FreeFua* said:

You said Sean Payton, he’s 5-8 vs Sean Payton end of story. 

You can’t just base everything off of since Rivera entered the league. So are we taking Payton’s SB away from him because it was before Rivera became a coach? No.

Again if you read the thread the question is more so if he can get us over the final hurdle and win us a SB. Rivera is a tier 2 coach, he’s good enough to get by but in many of our opinions not good enough to win the SB. 

So while you sit here pounding your chest over division titles and zero back to back winning seasons, I’ll see Rivera for what he is... a guy who continuously makes the same mistakes year after year and is fortunate enough to have been given a gift in Cam. 

Can only Tier 1 coaches win the superbowl?

[Panthers8969]

Mike McCarthy is 5-27 against playoff teams. 

Or not, didn’t actually look it up but feels like packers always lose to good teams 

[DeAngelo Beason]

I don't know how you can look at this roster and think it's loaded down with talent.  That's simply untrue.  In fact I'd argue that we have one of the least talented rosters in the NFL.

 

Cam Newton is a special player, but his passing game leaves much to be desired.

The D-Line has no significant talent at the edge rush position.

The O-Line has been made up of 2nd and 3rd stringers for years.

The secondary has been made up of 2nd and 3rd stringers for years.

The receiving corps has been made up of undrafted free agents, and washed-up has-beens for years.

We have, and have had for quite sometime, a premier linebacking corps.  That's it.

 

Sporadically over the years, one or two of these position groups has a decent stretch of games.  As a whole body of work, however, this team has not been "loaded with talent" since Keyshawn Johnson and Steve Smith lined up on the same field together, and we sucked that season.  

[Doc Holiday]

2 hours ago, *FreeFua* said:

You said Sean Payton, he’s 5-8 vs Sean Payton end of story. 

You can’t just base everything off of since Rivera entered the league. So are we taking Payton’s SB away from him because it was before Rivera became a coach? No.

Again if you read the thread the question is more so if he can get us over the final hurdle and win us a SB. Rivera is a tier 2 coach, he’s good enough to get by but in many of our opinions not good enough to win the SB. 

So while you sit here pounding your chest over division titles and zero back to back winning seasons, I’ll see Rivera for what he is... a guy who continuously makes the same mistakes year after year and is fortunate enough to have been given a gift in Cam. 

What matters if we are talking about Ron Rivera today? history as a coach, recently being the last 5 years he is a top 5 coach in the league. Now we are pulling the last 5 years because we can’t pull a sample from the entirety of the NFL history we have to stop somewhere. Everything else besides his record is opinion yes your opinion is that he isn’t a good coach, his record proves otherwise. His record isn’t opinion it’s fact. Fact is you’re wrong. End of this argument and BS.

now in my opinion, I like head coaches that are top 5 in wins over the last 5 years. I know crazy that I may enjoy my team having a top 5 head coach(based on wins)

Also believe it or not but threepeating Division titles is not only harder, but it’s more important then back to back winning seasons. Did you know his? 

In one of my first posts I replied to you I asked you what was Ron’s record over the last 5 years. And I got no answers unless you count gifs. 

The reason you wouldn’t reply, besides with gifs is the facts which is Ron’s Record proves he is a top 5 head coach in the NFL.

now I call you out in this and you get pissy. Now we are arguing in circles. I have facts to back up my argument, and you just have opinion and are scrambling to prove it by cherry picking stats to try and prove you’re right. You’ve lost bro.

I know you’re not going to admit it, but with that said everyone can see and judge this for themselves I’m out of this becuase we are only going in circles going nowhere any time soon.

[Doc Holiday]

10 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

And here I am having to rehash this all over again 

Didn't say he can't. Said he hasn't proven it yet. And yes, his having blown the shot he did get is an objective fact.

Fair statement

[Darvinsun]

13 hours ago, arbnranger said:

I think Scott is pretty smart when it comes to football and football history. He’s a little jaded when it comes to Rivera for whatever reason.

It’s all about the lens you’re looking through. I agree with you 100% btw.  

I dont want to be the buffalo bills.

[Darvinsun]

Same mistakes equal same results. Unless everyone is content with division champs then he is fine. I say he will not win a SB until he changes some of his bad tendencies that people assume he will make. Im just looking for some improvements in his decision making and right now i dont. He is an average coach who has dynamic players on both sides of the ball. Im afraid Cam will be Marino.

 

[thefuzz]

IMO the bottom line is this.

 

Ron is a good head coach and a better person.  He does have some glaring weaknesses that I would love to have seen him improve upon as he settled into the role, but he has not done that.  

Ron's major issues from where I'm sitting are as follows.

1:  He is far too conservative offensively in an era that begs for offensive production.

2:  His in game strategy/clock management is all but terrible.

3:  His player evaluation is pretty bad.

4:  He like the status quo far too much.  Promoting from within, keeping/starting players past their expiration dates...etc.

 

This hasn't been the easiest coaching job out there, and Ron has been pretty damn good during his time, but I can see that there is room for improvement, that Ron seemingly isn't improving, and I can see a change happening in a year or two if he doesn't adapt. 

I will likely never forgive him for keeping Shula and Dorsey around as long as he did.

[thefuzz]

To add a couple points to the "this hasn't been the easiest coaching job" comment I made above.

We have played in a very tough division.  We had a terrible owner in many ways.  He has been saddled with a bad GM for much of his tenure.

This franchise has been pretty dysfunctional during his time here, and we have at least won more games than lost.