"Numbers never lie" (or do they?)

[trueblade]

39 minutes ago, FugAllY'all said:

There is a tremendous amount of QB and WR talent in the league right now. I would point to that more than any rule changes. That combined with the usual early season offensive advantage and you're seeing it turned up to 11 right now. It'll slow down and the league will adjust. At the end of the day, you'll need to run the ball and stop the run, or you die in January. 

Weather will play a role. September football is different from December football.

[dpm0409]

5 hours ago, KB_fan said:

The QB / passing numbers so far this season are pretty insane.

 

Defense seems non-existent in many games. I imagine the new penalties are having some effect. (I keep meaning to look at sacks this year so far compared to recent years...).

A high-scoring shoot out every now and again is fun to watch, but when they become the norm the game has lost something.

I was thinking the exact same thing watching games yesterday on Sunday Ticket.  Defense in most games seems to be completely optional!  haha

[RumHam]

Cam's completion percentage is up because Norv has properly incorporated checkdown options. Cam would probably be 80% if Torrey Smith would just GTFO. We still need deep routes to be ran and they aren't and it does make you start to question that shoulder. Obviously Colts sat Luck to throw a hail mary last week.

[My Goodness My Guinness]

12 hours ago, bigdavis said:

Certainly they don't literally; they're factual.

But our misinterpretation of them, or our over-reliance of them, can mislead us as surely as a lie.

Consider the following numbers from 5 of this week's games -- and before you scroll down, answer this:  What do they all have in common, okay? (These are all QB stats.) 

Completions and %         TDs           Passing Yds

33/50     66%                       2                  348

29/39     74%                       3                  419

24/30     80%                       2                  307

40/62     65%                       4                  464

36/50     72%                       3                  422

The second and third row stats are the ones I'd consider crazy good games and yes would usually mean a W. The others were all 50+ attempts which usually means your defense sucks and you are playing from behind the whole game. 

[Panther1iDawg]

8 hours ago, GRWatcher said:

Fantasy football has ruined the concept of football as a team sport for too many fans. 

I agree.  I'm not knocking it, a lot of guys are into it, hell I was into for years. 

[bigdavis]

2 hours ago, Pup McBarky said:

 

Stats never lie. Interpreters of stats do. Sometimes on purpose, sometimes not. Saying Cam threw 72% completions isn't a lie. Saying that's why we won may be. Saying that's the only reason we won most certainly is.

Well now, you just succinctly summarized the point I was trying to make, Pup.  Nicely.

[bigdavis]

1 hour ago, dpm0409 said:

I was thinking the exact same thing watching games yesterday on Sunday Ticket.  Defense in most games seems to be completely optional!  haha 

How many drives in those high-scoring games that you saw resulted in TDs, after sacks were nullified by Roughing calls, or questionable DPI of DH calls extended drives.  No doubt new penalty emphases (while supposedly put in place for 'player safety') are responsible for higher scoring.  It's not that today's QBs have learned some secret; the QBs from 2-3 decades ago would have had all these 400 yd games, too, had their opponents been discouraged from clothesline tackles (what new fan on here even knows what one of THose looked like?) and vicious head shots to the QB.

It's all about scoring in today's world, in BB as well, where the average score of a game is almost 9 runs.  League offices (who have a stake in FF leagues, too) truly believe that fans want to see a score to cheer about, and not watch a defensive struggle.

But the post-season will be different, and if your team has no semblance of a D, it'll have no chance to advance -- ours does.

[caatfan]

51 minutes ago, My Goodness My Guinness said:

your defense sucks and you are playing from behind the whole game. 

Yep. Get too far behind and your passing numbers can look great cause that's about all you can afford to do.

[dpm0409]

41 minutes ago, bigdavis said:

How many drives in those high-scoring games that you saw resulted in TDs, after sacks were nullified by Roughing calls, or questionable DPI of DH calls extended drives.  No doubt new penalty emphases (while supposedly put in place for 'player safety') are responsible for higher scoring.  It's not that today's QBs have learned some secret; the QBs from 2-3 decades ago would have had all these 400 yd games, too, had their opponents been discouraged from clothesline tackles (what new fan on here even knows what one of THose looked like?) and vicious head shots to the QB.

It's all about scoring in today's world, in BB as well, where the average score of a game is almost 9 runs.  League offices (who have a stake in FF leagues, too) truly believe that fans want to see a score to cheer about, and not watch a defensive struggle.

But the post-season will be different, and if your team has no semblance of a D, it'll have no chance to advance -- ours does.

Completely agree that having even a half competent defense come playoff time will be huge.

[Khyber53]

It's the Peyton Manning/Colts situation for many, many teams. Huge amounts of money tied up in QB/WR groups with the o-line up next. Defenses are money and talent starved on those teams, plus worn out from being on the field often and early due to quick scores or three and outs.

And just like Peyton and the ponies, these teams that rely on 35 pt+ games to win out over the 32 pts their defenses give up, the long road is a rough one. Peyton only got one Lombardi trophy for all of those years in Indianapolis, usually getting drummed out by more balanced teams.

September has started off with a bunch of teams sprinting, but the road to Atlanta is a long, long one.

[joemac]

Our brand of offense translates much better to the cold months at the end of the season and the playoffs.  Hopefully we continue to build a dominant ground game, and an opportune passing game.  We should run weaker teams into the ground in Nov - Dec - Jan.

[Varking]

The problem with stats is they tell the truth but WE leave out the context. Those are great individual stats but how were the people playing against them?

(Wentz, Ryan, Stafford, Luck, and Cousins)

Mariota outplayed Wentz. He had a better competion %, more total yards and more TDs. Truth is, these two basically played to a wash.

Ryan went against Dalton who basically made each other a wash. Whoever got the ball last with about 2-3 minutes was going to win this game. Ryan had an elite game and Dalton still balled out too.

Stafford was good but Zeke had an other worldly game. Stafford had about 50 more passing yards than Dak but Dallas killed them running. 

Luck vs Watson. When you factor in rushing by them as well 1 td and 60 yards is what separated them. But Luck also fumbled twice in this game and the Colts could do nothing running the ball. 

Cousins? Poor dude played against Goff. Nuff said. Stats are cool but I don't think people just post stats anymore and say X is better than Y. For the most part on this forum people do try to give analysis with their stat posts. 

 

[NorthTryon]

14 hours ago, OneBadCat said:

I don't really care about Cam's completion percentage to be honest.

I don't see it as a reflection on him as much as it is the offense. We have previously been in a high risk, high reward offense that has a very small margin for error that relies on chunk plays in the air to keep things open.

Now we're making use of CMC and Cam is checking down a lot. The completion percentage reflects that. Does that necessarily mean Cam is drastically more accurate than before? Not necessarily. It just means the throws are there and the options are available. Just like Cam has been on the money in years past, yet his WR's drop passes and we always relied on 3rd and long completions. 

Good post. This was the only difference between him and other "more accurate" quarterbacks.  I constantly would see guys like Brady & Brees miss on high risk, high reward throws downfield.  The difference is they did have about 6-8 completions a game to guys out of the backfield that were layups.  Norv has just implemented that into our scheme now and makes sure there is a safety-valve receiver working across the middle or out of the backfield.

[NorthTryon]

13 hours ago, GRWatcher said:

Fantasy football has ruined the concept of football as a team sport for too many fans. 

Ditto.