"Numbers never lie" (or do they?)

[bigdavis]

Certainly they don't literally; they're factual.

But our misinterpretation of them, or our over-reliance of them, can mislead us as surely as a lie.

Consider the following numbers from 5 of this week's games -- and before you scroll down, answer this:  What do they all have in common, okay? (These are all QB stats.) 

Completions and %         TDs           Passing Yds

33/50     66%                       2                  348

29/39     74%                       3                  419

24/30     80%                       2                  307

40/62     65%                       4                  464

36/50     72%                       3                  422

Pretty impressive, huh?  Now scroll down a bit, after you've made your observations and drawn your conclusions.

 

 

 

Most would view these stats and attribute all manner of accolades to those passers.  Each set meets the usual critieria for a winning NFL QB, don't they?

Here's what they have in common:  they all lost.  (Wentz, Ryan, Stafford, Luck, and Cousins)

It could be said that their losses weren't their fault; they were caused by leaky defenses, poor clock management by their coaches, bad bounces, etc.   But my point is that the whole business of evaluating QBs by their numbers alone (I'm discounting FF; that's another whole universe) is slippery, and undependable.  As even these guys would tell you, it's not about the stats; it's about the Ws.  To some degree, the 'experts' who rank QBs by such stats are the ones who, for example, underrate Cam Newton.

Now you may read this, and say, so what?  I just thought it was interesting to see how, in just the one week, there were so many top performances that failed.  I'd be interested to see what other conclusions some of you might draw.

[Snake]

Cam has been around 70% under Norv. I think most of that comes from him actually getting the ball out. Years past that was his biggest weakness. With that said the WCO and spread just use a bunch of short passes that bump up those percentages. 

[trueblade]

"You see, I can make stats say anything I want. I can talk up or talk down any player I want, I just have to choose the right stats for the job. Or just ask my friends Kyle Soppe of ESPN Fantasy or Mackenzie Kraemer of ESPN Stats & Information to get me the right stat, which I did at various points in this column. Everything you are about read below is an accurate statistical statement. A heavily researched, well-thought-out, 100 percent true, can't be argued with, fully vetted fact.

That tells only part of the story. The part of the story I want you see. That's why I say it's all a lie. And lie is a strong word. It's more like half-truth. Oh, it's definitely part of a picture. But not all of it. Just the part that supports whatever opinion I have of a player. Whatever opinion I want to try to convince you of.

You see, there's very little in this world I am good at, but one thing I am a world class master at? Manipulating stats to tell the story I want. But here's the other big secret:

I am not the only one.

Everyone does it. Some do it better than others, but everyone does it. "

http://kwese.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/TMR100facts2018/fantasy-football-100-facts-consider-2018-season

[bigdavis]

26 minutes ago, trueblade said:

"You see, I can make stats say anything I want. I can talk up or talk down any player I want, I just have to choose the right stats for the job. Or just ask my friends Kyle Soppe of ESPN Fantasy or Mackenzie Kraemer of ESPN Stats & Information to get me the right stat, which I did at various points in this column. Everything you are about read below is an accurate statistical statement. A heavily researched, well-thought-out, 100 percent true, can't be argued with, fully vetted fact.

That tells only part of the story. The part of the story I want you see. That's why I say it's all a lie. And lie is a strong word. It's more like half-truth. Oh, it's definitely part of a picture. But not all of it. Just the part that supports whatever opinion I have of a player. Whatever opinion I want to try to convince you of.

You see, there's very little in this world I am good at, but one thing I am a world class master at? Manipulating stats to tell the story I want. But here's the other big secret:

I am not the only one.

Everyone does it. Some do it better than others, but everyone does it. "

http://kwese.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/TMR100facts2018/fantasy-football-100-facts-consider-2018-season

Pretty much what I just did, you're saying?  You're right.

[trueblade]

11 minutes ago, bigdavis said:

Pretty much what I just did, you're saying?  You're right.

Not just me (random guy on the internet), the senoir Fantasy analyst at ESPN agrees with you. I'd thought you'd enjoy seeing it. 

[bigdavis]

1 minute ago, trueblade said:

Not just me (random guy on the internet), the senoir Fantasy analyst at ESPN agrees with you. I'd thought you'd enjoy seeing it. 

I did. Thanks.

[chef17]

I would venture to guess winning NFL QBs aren't throwing the ball 62 times but that's just me

[rodeo]

this spells disaster for samoa joe

[JawnyBlaze]

Stats lie. Simple and plain. 

[OneBadCat]

I don't really care about Cam's completion percentage to be honest.

I don't see it as a reflection on him as much as it is the offense. We have previously been in a high risk, high reward offense that has a very small margin for error that relies on chunk plays in the air to keep things open.

Now we're making use of CMC and Cam is checking down a lot. The completion percentage reflects that. Does that necessarily mean Cam is drastically more accurate than before? Not necessarily. It just means the throws are there and the options are available. Just like Cam has been on the money in years past, yet his WR's drop passes and we always relied on 3rd and long completions. 

[GRWatcher]

Fantasy football has ruined the concept of football as a team sport for too many fans. 

[KB_fan]

The QB / passing numbers so far this season are pretty insane.

 

Defense seems non-existent in many games. I imagine the new penalties are having some effect. (I keep meaning to look at sacks this year so far compared to recent years...).

A high-scoring shoot out every now and again is fun to watch, but when they become the norm the game has lost something.

[Pup McBarky]

 

8 hours ago, JawnyBlaze said:

Stats lie. Simple and plain. 

Stats never lie. Interpreters of stats do. Sometimes on purpose, sometimes not. Saying Cam threw 72% completions isn't a lie. Saying that's why we won may be. Saying that's the only reason we won most certainly is.

[FugAllY'all]

There is a tremendous amount of QB and WR talent in the league right now. I would point to that more than any rule changes. That combined with the usual early season offensive advantage and you're seeing it turned up to 11 right now. It'll slow down and the league will adjust. At the end of the day, you'll need to run the ball and stop the run, or you die in January.