Panthers one of 5 teams in the decline??

[TheCasillas]

44 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

This whole decline idea might be true if we were static and not adding pieces all the time. It isn't as if we have to have Cam for 8 more years. If he declines we will replace him with someone else who may or may not be better. And why is Cam done at 33 and Brady is still good at 40. If Cam stops taking so many hits he could play another 10 years as well for example. Too simplistic logic which doesn't account for how the NFL actually works.

Completely accurate, but you are adding misnomers and endless possibilities. I am stating that if you are speaking about the current super stars we have in place, they are at the twilight of their careers and this is the point where the descent begins. 

If you look at this graph it backs up what I am saying. http://socalledfantasyexperts.com/aging-curve-nfl-offensive-players-every-single-position/

I also stated that if Cam can adjust his game then he could go longer.

 

we aren't disagreeing here.

[PleaseCutStewart]

6 hours ago, joemac said:

So I just saw a segment on SportsCenter, by Bill Barnwell. Apparently the Panthers are one of the 5 teams on the decline in the NFL? The only reason he gives is because TD is suspended for 4 games. LMFAO! Does that make sense to anybody else? Do the Panthers really seem like a team on the DECLINE to you guys?!?! We go 11-5 last year, upgrade the hell outta our skill positions, bring in one of the greatest OC’s of all time....and we’re on the decline? I don’t get it.

Depends. If we keep losing a player for the season every 2-3 days in training camp, we may not be able to field a squad by the 1st game of the regular season...

[panthers55]

25 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

Completely accurate, but you are adding misnomers and endless possibilities. I am stating that if you are speaking about the current super stars we have in place, they are at the twilight of their careers and this is the point where the descent begins. 

If you look at this graph it backs up what I am saying. http://socalledfantasyexperts.com/aging-curve-nfl-offensive-players-every-single-position/

I also stated that if Cam can adjust his game then he could go longer.

 

we aren't disagreeing here.

I think you have to define twilight. Cam not close. CMC, not close. Olsen hard to say. He looked great in camp last Thursday and no sign of a drop off.  Davis and Ryan Kalil- most definitely.  Peppers and Adams- absolutely.  But honestly who are the superstars? I would argue that Peppers, Davis, Ryan and Adams can leave without a terrible drop off. Sure we will have to replace them but already have people in the wings to assume their roles when they retire. So I think we do disagree somewhat on the impact of our superstars and how hurting we would be when they leave. I think we will will keep going without a big drop off. That's just me.

[joemac]

1 hour ago, TheCasillas said:

im not sure what you are stating here..... I am thinking you are agreeing with me? 

If you read again, I am saying this article is just to fill space if they are referring to the season. However, if they are referring to us as a team beginning its decline over the next 3-4 years, then yes.We are at our peak of potential this year.

 

You really think Cam only has 3-4 years left before he declines?  Top flight, franchise QB's are playing All-Pro football well into their late 30's these days.  Players like Cam and Luke are not your run of the mill players.  Unless concussions get Luke, he will continue to be one of the best MLB's in the game until he retires.  Hall of Famer's dont usually drop off a cliff at 30.

[TheCasillas]

25 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

I think you have to define twilight. Cam not close. CMC, not close. Olsen hard to say. He looked great in camp last Thursday and no sign of a drop off.  Davis and Ryan Kalil- most definitely.  Peppers and Adams- absolutely.  But honestly who are the superstars? I would argue that Peppers, Davis, Ryan and Adams can leave without a terrible drop off. Sure we will have to replace them but already have people in the wings to assume their roles when they retire. So I think we do disagree somewhat on the impact of our superstars and how hurting we would be when they leave. I think we will will keep going without a big drop off. That's just me.

I dont think I mentioned anything about any players outside of Cam, KK, Luke and Greg.  I specifically brought up those players because they are at the peak (twilight) of their careers. Hence the statement that this is where the descent begins.

They are also the staples of our team over the last 5 years. You are trying to make this into something I am not even discussing. History shows players decline at age 30. There really isnt much more to take away from this rather than win NOW, or you won't win with these players.

[TheCasillas]

8 minutes ago, joemac said:

You really think Cam only has 3-4 years left before he declines?  Top flight, franchise QB's are playing All-Pro football well into their late 30's these days.  Players like Cam and Luke are not your run of the mill players.  Unless concussions get Luke, he will continue to be one of the best MLB's in the game until he retires.  Hall of Famer's dont usually drop off a cliff at 30.

Unless he changes his game, yes. I don't think anyone could disagree on this. The top flight QB's you speak of, are not battering ram running QBs. They are also very accurate QBs with quick releases. I know they are not run of the mill players, but to expect them to perform as they are right now in 4 years is a big ask. 

I am using history and statistics, you can work with believing that they will be the exception, and I hope they are, but as a franchise you have to begin to plan for the inevitable. Which is why I stand by my statement - The team is going to be in decline mode in 3-4 years.

You are not going to change my mind. Only the players can, which I am open to, and hoping for.

[panthers55]

13 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

I dont think I mentioned anything about any players outside of Cam, KK, Luke and Greg.  I specifically brought up those players because they are at the peak (twilight) of their careers. Hence the statement that this is where the descent begins.

They are also the staples of our team over the last 5 years. You are trying to make this into something I am not even discussing. History shows players decline at age 30. There really isnt much more to take away from this rather than win NOW, or you won't win with these players.

I think you make generalizations which are inaccurate. Running backs drop off at 30 not quarterbacks. And using longevity stats by position is often misleading unless you take out the guys who never were any good or wash out early. For example even considering running backs if you cut out those that were not productive before they were 30 and look at those guys who were still productive in their late 20s and didn't suffer catastrophic injuries, they can stll be effective into their thirties.  So no most players who were productive up to the age of 30 don't suddenly drop off because they hit 30. It is based on wear and tear, injury history and other factors. So lets look at specifics. Cam shows no drop off at 29. KK the same way. Kueckly is more likely to retire due to another concussion which could happen anytime regardless of age. And Olsen shows no drop off and is signed for 3 more years. So no I don't think there is reason to believe they will drop off because they hit the magic 30 and they could all play another 5 years if they stay healthy and motivated. 

[Salisburysean98]

Before the season started just because of the even year I automatically just prepared myself for the worst predicting 7-9 but even with the injuries now I'm a little optimistic. I say we finish 10-6 with a Wildcard spot, even though many feel like we'd have to win 11 games to get into the postseason, I'll say that we get in due to head to head over someone. I like the fact Cam is going into an Offense that's more friendly with him but very similar in terms of the terminology and everything else including some concepts. I feel like Cam had one hell of a Rookie season and Chud was a disciple of Norv Turner, now he has the real Godfather so to speak. I see us doing big things on Offense, no matter how bad our Secondary gets I can see the Offense carrying the team instead of the Defense like we've been so used to seeing.

[TheCasillas]

50 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

I think you make generalizations which are inaccurate. Running backs drop off at 30 not quarterbacks. And using longevity stats by position is often misleading unless you take out the guys who never were any good or wash out early. For example even considering running backs if you cut out those that were not productive before they were 30 and look at those guys who were still productive in their late 20s and didn't suffer catastrophic injuries, they can stll be effective into their thirties.  So no most players who were productive up to the age of 30 don't suddenly drop off because they hit 30. It is based on wear and tear, injury history and other factors. So lets look at specifics. Cam shows no drop off at 29. KK the same way. Kueckly is more likely to retire due to another concussion which could happen anytime regardless of age. And Olsen shows no drop off and is signed for 3 more years. So no I don't think there is reason to believe they will drop off because they hit the magic 30 and they could all play another 5 years if they stay healthy and motivated. 

After you state I make generalizations you use the word in bold. Lol.

 

man it’s my opinion, there is no correct answer here. Relax. Btw I posted a link that debunks some of the items you stated, but that doesn’t matter.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Isn't Barnwell the guy who predicted we would blow away the Broncos in the Super Bowl? 

[pantherclaw]

This thread, WOW. 

Didn't take much for people to jump off the deepend. 

Cockrell, who was fighting a rookie for a spot,  now that he's injured, was going to be our #2? fug, that is some dismal expectations. No wonder why you want to jump. 

Stop the stupidity.

[panthers55]

2 hours ago, TheCasillas said:

After you state I make generalizations you use the word in bold. Lol.

 

man it’s my opinion, there is no correct answer here. Relax. Btw I posted a link that debunks some of the items you stated, but that doesn’t matter.

Again historic trends are woefully inaccurate the moment  you try to predict specific outcomes for individuals based on trends and big picture views.  Not only do they ignore individual differences, it assumes that past factors and the environment remain the same in the future as in  the past. For example increased player rule safety concerns and improved safety equipment  like helmets will extend careers which will skew those historical trends.  So no you didn't prove anything and the assumptions surrounding your so called evidence are faulty.

[TheCasillas]

33 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

Again historic trends are woefully inaccurate the moment  you try to predict specific outcomes for individuals based on trends and big picture views.  Not only do they ignore individual differences, it assumes that past factors and the environment remain the same in the future as in  the past. For example increased player rule safety concerns and improved safety equipment  like helmets will extend careers which will skew those historical trends.  So no you didn't prove anything and the assumptions surrounding your so called evidence are faulty.

I really feel like you are searching for an argument here. I told you, this is my opinion. There isn’t a right or wrong. There isn’t I proved something and you didn’t. Did i provide statistical evidence indicating the average decline of a player? Yes. However, I told you my opinion and that’s where I stand man. 

I am sorry I can’t provide you the argument you are looking for.

[panthers55]

1 hour ago, TheCasillas said:

I really feel like you are searching for an argument here. I told you, this is my opinion. There isn’t a right or wrong. There isn’t I proved something and you didn’t. Did i provide statistical evidence indicating the average decline of a player? Yes. However, I told you my opinion and that’s where I stand man. 

I am sorry I can’t provide you the argument you are looking for.

Yet you keep responding and justifying yourself