Random musings, specifically WR and S.

[UpstatePanther]

Hey everyone! I got to thinking about our safety situation and ended up having some general thoughts and questions on the roster as it currently stands. Tell me what you think!

First question that came to my mind is how much cap space the team has to work with still. I got a couple wildly varied answers in a quick search:

Cap Space:

     OTC: $7.11M (Team Salary Cap - Active Spending - Dead Money)

     Spotrac: -$15.27M (projection including all contracts)

Next I wondered where our true weaknesses are at:

You'll noticed I grouped the wide receivers as best I could by their function in our offense. I used speed and size to draw some conclusions here, so let me explain. People talk about feature wide receivers, speed receivers, and possession receivers. But those categorizations didn't seem fully accurate to wide receiver function for me. The "feature" receiver differs between offenses and often can fill in at most, if not all, WR positions. Ditto for speed receivers and possession receivers. After alittle more research, I found a different way to think about WR's:

• "Split End" receivers:
  • do their best work on the line of scrimmage, split out wide (hence the name). Seems to either require a bad attitude (a la Steve Smith) or a large frame to leverage against a jamming defender, preferably both.
  • I put DJ Moore and Torrey Smith here because they are taller and both seem to play more aggressive than most receivers.
• "Flanker" receivers:
  • also split out wide, but play off the LOS better than on it. Playing off the line helps them avoid the defender's jam rather than confront and win against it.
  • I put Funchess here because, despite his size, he plays less aggressively. When Funchess does show flashes of aggression fending off a jam, he fits more in the Split End category. Jairus Wright fits here because of his size. On the shorter end for a receiver, he would need the extra space to try to avoid the jam rather than fight it off.
• "Slot receivers":
  • Obviously line up in the slot. can be on or off the LOS depending on the play design and player's strengths/weaknesses.
  • Curtis Samuel and Damiere Byrd seem the best fit here based on their size and speed. Both these guys would do well to play off the LOS on most occasions due to their size. The fact that they are both fast as hell gives them added advantage off the LOS.

I'm no expert so it wouldn't surprise me if I misunderstood the WR roles and grouped the guys wrong. feel free to add your own thoughts! I had a hard time grouping Jairus Wright because his size and speed put him in a category of his own. Funchess was the same way, but at least he has his size to his advantage. Wright is neither the tallest nor fastest on our roster. I think his value is going to come as a veteran presence. Just to illustrate his measureables compared to the other guys, take a look below (the third value is how many years each player has left on their current contract):

Funchess:      4.47,      6'4",      1 yr

Moore:            4.42,      6'0",      4yrs w/ 5th option

Smith:             4.43,      6'1",      2yrs

Wright:            4.42,      5'10",    2yrs w/ 3rd option

Samuel:          4.31,      5'11",    3yrs

Byrd:                4.27,      5'9",      1yr -> RFA

Wright isn't as big as the "split end" guys, and isn't as fast as the slot guys. Don't let this fool you, Wright is still faster than the average NFL receiver by almost a tenth of a second. He's just hard to place in our offense. I think he's here to bring along Curtis Samuel and Damiere Byrd.

WR is not a weakness though. I suppose interior OL could be considered a weakness but there's a lot of promising guys there, especially after UDFA signings. CB is the same way. I think Jackson will bring much needed attitude to our secondary. Bradberry wont be left out to dry this year by constant blitzing, and Cockrell is a promising addition. We'll also finally get to see what Corn can do in the slot. Everywhere else is adequately set or STACKED this year, except safety...

Available Free Safeties:

So, the thing that even got me thinking about our depth chart is the safety position. It is going to be our weak spot if we go into the season with the current roster. Its disappointing that the team ignored this spot for yet another season, but all I can say is that old saw "there's always next year". This year though, there are some stop gaps. I included alittle bit of info for the names that popped out to me on Spotrac:

• Tre Boston:
  • Upsides:
    • tied for youngest available.
    • familiar with team.
  • Downsides:
    • there's a reason we let him walk
• Isaiah Johnson:
  • similar to Kurt Coleman, Devin McCourty, Earl Thomas
  • ranked 32nd best safety last season
  • cheap option for camp competition
• Antone Exum:
  • similar to Colin Jones (do we really want another Colin Jones?)
  • I seem to remember some Huddlers wanting him in the draft though, so idk...
• Mike Mitchell:
  • also familiar with the team
  • probably has a few more adequate seasons in him at 30y.o.
  • was not a liability here, did his job
  • brings a bit of nastiness back to defense

Can anyone think of potential veteran camp cuts we'd do well to look at? discuss...

[PhillyB]

samuel is a classic Z if he stays healthy and he'll take torrey smith's role if he develops at a reasonable pace and ron rivera isn't too cementheaded to give him snaps

[MHS831]

Thanks for sharing.  Nice work.  Hard to say how Norv will use folks or how we use Jackson or Gaulden, but I think this is safe.

[jumpman910]

47 minutes ago, PhillyB said:

samuel is a classic Z if he stays healthy and he'll take torrey smith's role if he develops at a reasonable pace and ron rivera isn't too cementheaded to give him snaps

Bingo, won't be this season but in an ideal situation Samuel would take Smiths role before the 2019 season. 

[UpstatePanther]

2 minutes ago, bull123 said:

Im actually worried about LB...if shaq finally shows up i wont be

I think Shaq has done pretty well. Worth the 1st we gave for him. That's not to say he hasn't made mistakes here and there, but even Luke looked only above average at times last season.

[Snake]

1 hour ago, UpstatePanther said:

I think Shaq has done pretty well. Worth the 1st we gave for him. That's not to say he hasn't made mistakes here and there, but even Luke looked only above average at times last season.

Our whole defense looked average because of a poor scheme last year. Hopefully Washington will be solid or our offense might have to out score people. 

[PantherNation123]

1 hour ago, UpstatePanther said:

I think Shaq has done pretty well. Worth the 1st we gave for him. That's not to say he hasn't made mistakes here and there, but even Luke looked only above average at times last season.

Exactly.  People don't seem to understand this.  If he were playing TD's position (which he will at times this year and then obviously next when TD retires), he would look much better.  Having him in a hybrid nickel half the time just puts him in an impossible position.  He will shine as a true LB, when he finally gets that chance

[cookinbrak]

I'd love to have Mitchell back at safety. Elijah Hood as the 3rd RB is laughable, tho.

[Saca312]

I think for the most part it's pretty decent, but I would be very surprised to see Moore play on the outside, especially split-end. I personally believe his skill-set lies in the slot for his rookie year, as he lacks technique to win against press/1v1 situations.

For reference, here's an excerpt from my post:

http://www.carolinahuddle.com/boards/topic/149454-will-dj-moore-become-a-solid-weapon-for-cam-newton/

With DJ Moore, he also has some of the same issues against press. Whenever he lines up outside, defenders are able to press him and shut him down consistently with early jams. Moore shows poor ability with timing and technique with his release, causing separation issues. To make matters even worse, he shows uncertainty and low confidence on fades and vertical stems, often letting the defensive back run the route for him. Defenders constantly put their hands on Moore early and push him to the outside, since he lacks proper stacking ability.

 

 

In the above clip, DJ Moore is matched up against the Wisconsin corner in press. At the snap, Moore shows off a weak release, allowing the defensive back to remain calm and jam him early. As seen, he has no counter to the move and lets the defensive back stick to him, forcing him towards the sideline. Moore is barely even in-bounds by the time the ball arrives. As a result, he is unable to complete the catch in-bounds and the corner gets off with an easy job.

This isn’t just an isolated issue either. For reference, there’s a cut-up of DJ Moore’s vertical stem routes online as well. His technique simply isn’t there; his route-running sub-par in these clips. According to Matt Harmon, Moore had a 65.4 percent success rate against press, just barely clearing the 40th percentile mark. A below average mark that isn’t encouraging.

After all this, it’s fair to question whether DJ Moore will ever be successful in the NFL on the outside.

...

DJ Moore may not be what many expect from a traditional first round receiver. As Ron Rivera mentions, he sees Moore playing the F (slot) with the occasional Z. Rather than place him at “X” or expect him to take on a heavy outside role, the Panthers coaching staff recognize Moore’s current limitations and seek to hide his weaknesses and hone in on his strengths early on. By placing Moore in the slot, they are able to take advantage of his great explosive ability in space, and as of now that is currently his optimal spot.

As of now, Moore should be more of a “lay-up” type of player. He will be the guy who converts the short and intermediate areas of the field while gaining his absurd yards after catch. He’ll have the occasional deep explosive play as Taylor molds his ability against press, but early on the highlight reels will likely feature plenty of short/intermediates.

As for a better picture of what his early impact may look like, think of a far more athletic version of Jarvis Landry with far less force-fed receptions. While Landry doesn’t contribute deep, he does pretty well down the short-intermediate range. While the Panthers shouldn’t be so narrow-minded as to force feed Moore the ball like the Dolphins did with Landry, they will likely use him as the go-to guy for Cam's lay-ups.

DJ Moore fills and plugs in a pretty significant hole on the Panthers offense in a non-traditional way. Sure, his stats may not be out of this world as a result, and it’s pretty much guaranteed there will be people out there cursing this pick. However, he’s as safe and sure a pick as it goes when used properly, and it’s fair to assume the offense will be better.

[UpstatePanther]

33 minutes ago, cookinbrak said:

Elijah Hood as the 3rd RB is laughable, tho.

You don't think he can beat out CAP? I truly think he can.

[cookinbrak]

No. I don't think he can beat out Fozzy, and definately not Bonnafon.

[UpstatePanther]

50 minutes ago, cookinbrak said:

No. I don't think he can beat out Fozzy, and definately not Bonnafon.

Fozzy has an ACL tear. Won't be in the equation. I don't know anything about Bonnafon so you could be right on that one

[BigSyke]

5 hours ago, UpstatePanther said:

Hey everyone! I got to thinking about our safety situation and ended up having some general thoughts and questions on the roster as it currently stands. Tell me what you think!

First question that came to my mind is how much cap space the team has to work with still. I got a couple wildly varied answers in a quick search:

Cap Space:

     OTC: $7.11M (Team Salary Cap - Active Spending - Dead Money)

     Spotrac: -$15.27M (projection including all contracts)

Next I wondered where our true weaknesses are at:

You'll noticed I grouped the wide receivers as best I could by their function in our offense. I used speed and size to draw some conclusions here, so let me explain. People talk about feature wide receivers, speed receivers, and possession receivers. But those categorizations didn't seem fully accurate to wide receiver function for me. The "feature" receiver differs between offenses and often can fill in at most, if not all, WR positions. Ditto for speed receivers and possession receivers. After alittle more research, I found a different way to think about WR's:

• "Split End" receivers:
  • do their best work on the line of scrimmage, split out wide (hence the name). Seems to either require a bad attitude (a la Steve Smith) or a large frame to leverage against a jamming defender, preferably both.
  • I put DJ Moore and Torrey Smith here because they are taller and both seem to play more aggressive than most receivers.
• "Flanker" receivers:
  • also split out wide, but play off the LOS better than on it. Playing off the line helps them avoid the defender's jam rather than confront and win against it.
  • I put Funchess here because, despite his size, he plays less aggressively. When Funchess does show flashes of aggression fending off a jam, he fits more in the Split End category. Jairus Wright fits here because of his size. On the shorter end for a receiver, he would need the extra space to try to avoid the jam rather than fight it off.
• "Slot receivers":
  • Obviously line up in the slot. can be on or off the LOS depending on the play design and player's strengths/weaknesses.
  • Curtis Samuel and Damiere Byrd seem the best fit here based on their size and speed. Both these guys would do well to play off the LOS on most occasions due to their size. The fact that they are both fast as hell gives them added advantage off the LOS.

I'm no expert so it wouldn't surprise me if I misunderstood the WR roles and grouped the guys wrong. feel free to add your own thoughts! I had a hard time grouping Jairus Wright because his size and speed put him in a category of his own. Funchess was the same way, but at least he has his size to his advantage. Wright is neither the tallest nor fastest on our roster. I think his value is going to come as a veteran presence. Just to illustrate his measureables compared to the other guys, take a look below (the third value is how many years each player has left on their current contract):

Funchess:      4.47,      6'4",      1 yr

Moore:            4.42,      6'0",      4yrs w/ 5th option

Smith:             4.43,      6'1",      2yrs

Wright:            4.42,      5'10",    2yrs w/ 3rd option

Samuel:          4.31,      5'11",    3yrs

Byrd:                4.27,      5'9",      1yr -> RFA

Wright isn't as big as the "split end" guys, and isn't as fast as the slot guys. Don't let this fool you, Wright is still faster than the average NFL receiver by almost a tenth of a second. He's just hard to place in our offense. I think he's here to bring along Curtis Samuel and Damiere Byrd.

WR is not a weakness though. I suppose interior OL could be considered a weakness but there's a lot of promising guys there, especially after UDFA signings. CB is the same way. I think Jackson will bring much needed attitude to our secondary. Bradberry wont be left out to dry this year by constant blitzing, and Cockrell is a promising addition. We'll also finally get to see what Corn can do in the slot. Everywhere else is adequately set or STACKED this year, except safety...

Available Free Safeties:

So, the thing that even got me thinking about our depth chart is the safety position. It is going to be our weak spot if we go into the season with the current roster. Its disappointing that the team ignored this spot for yet another season, but all I can say is that old saw "there's always next year". This year though, there are some stop gaps. I included alittle bit of info for the names that popped out to me on Spotrac:

• Tre Boston:
  • Upsides:
    • tied for youngest available.
    • familiar with team.
  • Downsides:
    • there's a reason we let him walk
• Isaiah Johnson:
  • similar to Kurt Coleman, Devin McCourty, Earl Thomas
  • ranked 32nd best safety last season
  • cheap option for camp competition
• Antone Exum:
  • similar to Colin Jones (do we really want another Colin Jones?)
  • I seem to remember some Huddlers wanting him in the draft though, so idk...
• Mike Mitchell:
  • also familiar with the team
  • probably has a few more adequate seasons in him at 30y.o.
  • was not a liability here, did his job
  • brings a bit of nastiness back to defense

Can anyone think of potential veteran camp cuts we'd do well to look at? discuss...

I saw somewhere that Jimmie Ward from 49ers could still possibly be traded. Former 1st round pick in contract year.

[weyco2000]

46 minutes ago, cookinbrak said:

I'd love to have Mitchell back at safety. Elijah Hood as the 3rd RB is laughable, tho.

Hood could be the answer on short yardage situations, the guy has tremendous leg strength, blocks well, has good hands and plays special teams. Thats what teams look for in a 3rd RB, a lower level roster spot that can contribute in various ways. With that said, realistically his only competition is CAP, who was basically JSTEWS stunt double last year or was on the inactive list. Pretty sure they’re not going to carry four RB’s this year with the departure of STEW. That and the signing of CJ Anderson and acquiring   Barber and Hood leaves me to believe that CAP’s days are numbered.