How long will these guys stay around?

[Cyberjag]

I found this on another site, and it's a few years old, but it's interesting.  This table shows how many players make the roster for a team, by the round they're drafted in, and whether they're on the team in year 2, 3, etc...  It uses data from 2004-2014.

Round	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
1	99.7%	93.5%	83.9%	77.4%	71.0%
2	96.8%	96.1%	83.9%	74.2%	41.9%
3	96.9%	75.1%	62.5%	37.5%	18.8%
4	91.4%	74.3%	54.3%	34.3%	17.2%
5	81.1%	56.8%	37.8%	24.3%	16.2%
6	70.2%	57.5%	35.3%	20.9%	10.6%
7	58.3%	45.8%	31.3%	21.7%	16.7%

Historically, Hurney's hit on about 40% of his 2nd round picks and 60% of his 3rds.  By hit, I mean he's found players that started a significant amount of games for us or other teams.  I didn't bother to see what his rates were based on the criteria of the above chart, because I was looking at starters and not backups/disappointments (for instance, Jimmy Clausen started some games but no one would ever call him a hit.  Same with Everette Brown).  I also looked at starts on other teams--a guy like Evan Mathis started here and wasn't all-world, but he continued to get better and was obviously a good 3rd round pick.

I love the Moore pick, and think he's going to play here for a long time.  Donte Jackson's speed is going to be a real asset.  Like others I'm concerned about his size, but I'm sure he'll bulk up enough where it won't matter.  That stunt where he vaulted up all those boxes was pretty impressive too.  Hate to say this about a second rounder, but with that speed unless he gets injured at the very least he should be a stud on special teams.  Granted, you want eventual starters on day two but that doesn't always happen.  I hope he's the answer across from Bradberry of course, but even if he isn't I can imagine him in a Panther uniform on year four easily. 

Gaulden looks like a nice thumper.  I don't know a ton about him, but after watching some highlights this morning his tackling stands out.  Not so sure about how great he's going to be but I'll be the first to admit I didn't do any homework on him and I place more stock in what our Scouts think that a bunch of guys on TV who can't get jobs on NFL staffs.  

Like I said earlier, I think Moore will be here a while.  Regarding our day two picks, maybe both work out and are solid starters or contributors for 4-5 years.  Maybe neither.  Which one do you think is more likely to be?

[Jeremy Igo]

a record 40% in round two is abysmal. Honestly, any of us could do better. 

[Cyberjag]

2 minutes ago, Jeremy Igo said:

a record 40% in round two is abysmal. Honestly, any of us could do better. 

You might have misunderstood what I wrote.  40% is how many of them were quality starters.  Eric Shelton hung around for a couple of years, and so did Everette Brown.  In that table they would be contributing to the roster number, but that doesn't tell the whole story which is why I added that context.

[Fox007]

37 minutes ago, Jeremy Igo said:

a record 40% in round two is abysmal. Honestly, any of us could do better. 

I'd legit be curious to see if throwing darts at a top 10 left board each round would do better than Hurney.

Just grade all the prospects and take them out when they get drafted and post 10 of them on there when it's our pick and toss a dart for real.

[ickmule]

Don’t worry guys, we’re in good hands, Hurney got this. Lol. 

[Shocker]

Thanks for the matrix but I don't need that to know Hurney sucks after round 1.

[Boundary Guru]

Curious how other GMs do. Seemed like Gettleman did not do well at all granted he brought it on himself.

[LinvilleGorge]

3 hours ago, Cyberjag said:

You might have misunderstood what I wrote.  40% is how many of them were quality starters.  Eric Shelton hung around for a couple of years, and so did Everette Brown.  In that table they would be contributing to the roster number, but that doesn't tell the whole story which is why I added that context.

"Hanging around for a couple of years" is a terribly low bar to clear for a 2nd round pick. Unless there's a GM change or a major off field issue a pick that high is virtually guaranteed 2-3 years to prove himself due to the investment made.

Everette Brown was one of our worst draft blunders.

[MHS831]

I think Marty (based on comments he made over the years) used the second round to grab players he considered in the first round but did not give them due diligence because he was targeting other players--spending a ton of time researching them.  So when they fell to the second round, he was getting excited and giddy instead of asking why.  For example, Clausen fell past KC and Minnesota--two teams that needed a QB badly.  Not just in the first round, but they overlooked him in the SECOND round as well.  Think about that--you need a franchise qb and you will not take a chance in the SECOND round on a player. 

Hurney tried to trade up to get Clausen.    Then when Clausen "fell" to us at pick 45 or so,  he later said that he traded up for Armanti Edwards, feeling that he was spending house money (because he did not have to trade anything for Clausen).  Edwards would be the second WR taken in that round.  After that, to make sure we were paying attention, he drafted 3-4 OLB Eric Norwood.  The Panthers ran a 4-3.

It would be the only draft he did not have input from the head coach because John Fox was a lame duck and Jerry RIchardson was too cheap to fire him.   That, boys and girls, is the unbridled, uncensored Marty Hurney.

Here is to hoping he improved his second and third round approach.

 

[Ja Rhule]

There is no option for year 5 from rounds 2-7 so ignore the 5th year.