D.J. Moore - Helping Cam Hit The "Lay-Up's"

[MillionDollarCam]

Happy draft weekend gang,

I wanted to go in-depth on the D.J. Moore pick to clarify some comments that I've been seeing on The Huddle.

Just a brief background on myself, I previously worked for a lower tier FBS team in film analysis. This doesn't make me anymore qualified to speak on this particular matter than anyone else, but hopefully it allows some to see that I'm not simply talking out of my ass.

With that said, let's get right into it. D.J. Moore does not possess straight-line in-game speed and he is subpar against press coverage. Do not expect Moore to suit up and become a better version of Byrd, Samuel, or Wright; it's not going to happen because he does not play like the other three players. There, I said it.

Now before everyone gets bent out of shape, let's dive into exactly what I mean by my above comments.

A while back, the controversial Jerry Richardson was quoted as saying that Cam Newton needs to hit the "lay up" throws. While Jerry was certainly correct, he failed to realize that A) the Panthers were not calling plays to allow Cam to take advantage of those lay ups and B) the Panthers didn't have a wide out on the roster that excelled in the lay up routes.

In my opinion, The Panthers addressed issue A) in the offseason by hiring Norv Turner and issue B) by selecting D.J. Moore in the first round of the draft.

Let's take an in-depth look at Moore. In today's NFL, a higher importance needs to be placed on the quick wide outs who have the ability to create separation and win both underneath as well as around the chains. However, teams have become so enamored with big wide receivers that they believe can win every jump ball or with speedy slot receivers that they believe can just outrun every defensive back that they forget how important wide outs like Moore truly are.

While many have speculated where Moore will line-up and Rivera noted that D.J. will play all three wide out positions, I believe Moore is best suited for the X position.

In a study done by Reception Perception (over a 6 game sample), Moore lined up nearly 80% of the time as the X receiver and lined up on the line of scrimmage over 75% of the time. Additionally, Moore drew a target on over 35% of his routes while still maintaining a very low 1.5% drop rate. Taking these things into consideration, it's time to take a look at Moore's successes and struggles. 

Moore amassed a 70% success rate against man coverage which puts him in the 65th percentile over the past three seasons, while an above average mark, it's certainly not elite. Additionally, Moore only had a 65% success rate against press coverage which barely puts him in the 40th precentile. Also of importance, Moore accumulated an astonishing 81% success rate against zone coverage which puts him in the 81st percentile. With all this in mind, you have to be thinking that D.J. is an ideal fit as a slot receiver.

However, let's take a look at Moore's route tree to truly understand where he succeeds. As mentioned above, the lay up throws are the short and intermediate throws that the quarterback can make with ease. Now in order for a quarterback to have that option, he also has to have a receiver that excels in those routes. Moore has a success rate of 75% or higher while running digs, comebacks, curls, flats, slants, and screens, all short and internediate routes that an X receiver excels at. Where Moore struggles is with routes seven through nine, known as your corners, posts, and flys, these are your deep routes that a fast X receiver who excels against press coverage would be good at.

Many say Moore is fast, personally I believe he is quick. In my opinion, Moore does not have fast straight-line in-game speed to allow him to beat press coverage with ease. However, Moore does possess a quickness and a refined route running capability to allow him to succeed in these short and intermediate routes that are considered lay up completions for a quarterback. One thing to note is that only 15% of Moore's catches were considered contested catches, a characteristic of a receiver with an elite route running capability. I believe you will see Moore excel as Cam's safety net and lay up completion almost instantaneously and that over the years we may witness the best route runner the Panthers have ever had.

So during this season, keep a couple of things in mind. Moore did not excel against press coverage in college as he lacked the in-game straight-line speed to blow past the corner on these deep routes; give the kid some time to refine his skills in that regards as he develops as an X receiver. However, in the short and intermediate passing game, marvel at Moore's ability to use his quickness to find gaps in the defense and watch as he weaves in and out of traffic on his way to the end zone.

 

Thanks for reading!

- MDC

[iamhubby1]

    I appreciate the time and effort you put into this, and I agree with almost everything you said. However, as a Big Ten man, I saw quite a bit of Moore. And he most certainly can beat man coverage. It is amazing how often the guy covering him was alway playing catch up. Which is the main reason I was on the Moore bandwagon. He always seems to have a step on whomever is covering him.

 

    Although most of his routes are short to intermediate. When he does run longer routes, those guys are still chasing him. The problem for him was, there was a 25/75 chance the ball would even be catchable. So in order for Maryland to get anything out of him. He ran the shorter routes. 

 

    IMO, just because he didn't have success on the longer routes. Does not necessarily mean he still wasn't winning his battles.

 

    That said. Not every route he ran was a win. Because, I mean, how can they? But man, I loved watching the kid. 

[Daddy_Uncle]

I'll trust the pro scouts who all basically said he was the #1 WR in the draft. If he stays healthy, which he looks built to do then that alone makes him better than Byrd and Samuel