Heading into the draft, this team screams 2006 to me

[electro's horse]

The Panthers headed into 2006 coming off a spirited playoff run that saw them win a brutal game in Chicago before finally succumbing to a better (and healthier) team in Seattle. They acquired a couple of pieces in the offseason, and were widely expected to compete for the NFC South. However, the team quickly fell apart.

The defense was banged up and old. Dan Morgan only played a game, Rucker and Minter were clearly done, Jenkins would begin lashing out in private to Julius Peppers, and big money free agent Kemo'eatu didn't fill the shoes of the much smaller Brentson Buckner. 

On offense, their pro bowl QB regressed and they simply didn't have any weapons. Their second leading receiver from the year before was Deshaun Foster, who had been asked to bulk up to replace Steven Davis' role in the offense. First round rookie DeAngelo Williams wasn't allowed to see the field because John Fox. The host of young WR across from Steve Smith never developed. Keyshawn Johnson never gelled. Justin Hartwig never played. Of course there wasn't a tight end because.....John Fox. 

Looking back, the team just kinda rotted from the inside out. The offensive line was dismal, with Jeremy Bridges starting at tackle, an overmatched Hangartner at center/either guard position, and mike wahle decaying in front of our eyes. Evan Mathis was far from the player he would become. On top of that, the offense had been figured out. 3 years had been more than enough time for opposing defenses to figure out what Dan Henning was trying to do.

But most importantly, the Panthers just lacked talent. The 2003 team had been rife with good players at small positions, as most good teams are. This 2006 Panthers were a list of big names are marquee positions, and nothing anywhere else. The casual fan could name several members of the team, but somehow they just couldn't put it all together. The problem lay in the draft. 

In the three seasons prior to the 2006 season, the Panthers arguably only drafted 4 players that would contribute positively to the team: Gross, Gamble, Wharton, and Davis. Hurney whiffed all over the place, especially in the second round where he went Nelson, Colbert, Shelton, and Marshall (who, granted, was a nice piece for a while but couldn't stick around). 

A lack of young talent doesn't show itself right away. Ideally, the draft produces you at least 3 players who are ready to contribute right away. This can be in the form of Thomas Davis, who played all over the field his rookie year but made his presence known wherever he was. Or it can be Cam, the kind of player who came right in and established himself. Steve Smith was a pro bowler his first season on special teams. Captain Munnerlyn was a standout immediately to anyone watching the games. 

After that, you need players to groom. Guys that on the third and fourth year of their contract their ready to be dominant on special teams (Jarrod Cooper), or play significant snaps when a starter goes down (any linebacker you want to name),  or coming out of nowhere to be a significant starter (Andrew Norwell.) Obviously you supplement and lose players in FA, but this cycle continues. 

In 2006, they clearly reached a low point in that cycle, with no new young talent ready to step forward, and a bunch of aging nobody veterans trying to keep the pace. 

So where are the Panthers now? In much worse shape, I'd argue. 

This team is bereft of talent. The past three drafts have been disasters. At least with Hurney the Panthers were guaranteed an eventual impact player in the first. 2015-2017 yielded two rotational players and the kind of guy the Patriots trade a 6th round pick for. The team is bad on the offensive line, with a good tackle and guard, an injury concern at center, a question mark at the other guard position, and the hell scene from Event Horizon playing left tackle.

Take away Cam, and the skill position is possibly the worst in the NFL. Best two receivers are a running back and a tight end coming off basically a season ending injury. There's no halfback to run the offense the coach and OC want to run. 

On defense, you're looking pretty similar to to 2006. You've got a free agent fat dude next to your stud DT. Peppers is there with nothing of note across the other side (lol christ he's old). Your best player is your MLB who can be killed by a strong breeze. Thomas Davis is STILL THERE. The big difference is the secondary, where at least 2006 had able bodied players. I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers starting day corners aren't even on the roster yet. 

As far as coaching? By 2006 teams had figured out Dan Henning. They probably figured him out in 2005, but Steve Smith was so good that year things like "scheme" and "routes" and "planning" didn't really matter. 

The Panthers offense? Don't make me laugh. They upgraded their playcalling by a decade and are still 30 years behind the rest of the NFL. No one is surprised by what the Panthers do. Everyone knows what's coming. Sometimes execution is able to overcome this, but opposing defenses are good enough now to scheme around it. Man on man win your battle is 20th century football, and we're nearly 2 decades from that. 

Cam is the wild card, of course. As good as Jake was in 2005, he was no Newton. Cam makes a bad scheme and shaky supporting cast look better than they are. I don't think he's the right QB for this owner/offensive mindset, but I can't imagine any other QBs doing much better. 

So what does all this mean for the season and tomorrow night? Not much. If history is any indication, Hurney isn't going to set the world on fire tomorrow night. With a couple exceptions, Hurney has generally spent his first round picks on A.) rotational players or B.) ones that didn't make an immediate impact. Think I'm exaggerating?

2002 - Peppers (okay he was good)

2003 - Gross - right tackle

2004 - Gamble - struggle bus

2005 - Davis - rotational Safety hybrid weird thingy

2006 - DeAngelo - rotational RB

2007 - Beason - drafted as a WLB, Morgan was still on the team

2008 - Stewart - rotational RB

2008 - Otah, RT, don't get me started on this

2009 - basically a first rounder, Jeremy Igo favorite Everette Brown

2011 - CAAAAAAAAAAAAAAM

2012 - Kuechly - drafted as a WLB, Beason still on the team, worked out very well after hurney was fired

These players all turned out pretty well, except for Otah and Brown, but most of them didn't set the world on fire. With the exception of Peppers, none were good enough to overcome the dearth of drafted talent that preceded them.

2018 is looking like a season where the lack of good young talent catches up with Carolina. Players drafted in 2015 and 2016 should be ready to step up into bigger roles, but I just don't see those players on the roster. Schematically, the Panthers don't surprise anyone, and I don't see that changing until they get a new owner who institutes changes from the top down. The Panthers didn't do much in free agency to change their outlook. And Carolina would need a repeat of the 2007 or 2001 draft, just with talent at the DB and WR position, to overcome how untalented their young players are.

No sir, don't like it.