Norv Turner vs Mike Shula: The Statistical Omnibus Thread

[Ricky Spanish]

@UpstatePanther

Not sure if you answered this yet because I just read a crap ton and don't want to read the entire thread as well, but did you take in average field position/defensive performances (like rankings and turnovers) to help determine whether the offense was hindered or supporting the defense, or vice versa?

I know the argument could be made that the 2015 defense really helped our 2015 offense due to the takeaways and average field position. It seems like when Shula didn't have a strong Defense, the Offense stuttered as well.

Then you have the opposite in NO with Drew Brees and Co. where the Offense is a perennial top 5 unit even if the defense is bottom of the barrel. 

Just a thought I had that might allow you to better determine whether or not the offensive production was a product of circumstance or ingenuity. 

[run-run-pass-punt]

Now that is some impressive work. I'm as big of a statistical nerd as you're likely to find, but I'm still blown away.

Get a job.

[UpstatePanther]

1 hour ago, Cracka McNasty said:

@UpstatePanther

Not sure if you answered this yet because I just read a crap ton and don't want to read the entire thread as well, but did you take in average field position/defensive performances (like rankings and turnovers) to help determine whether the offense was hindered or supporting the defense, or vice versa?

I know the argument could be made that the 2015 defense really helped our 2015 offense due to the takeaways and average field position. It seems like when Shula didn't have a strong Defense, the Offense stuttered as well.

Then you have the opposite in NO with Drew Brees and Co. where the Offense is a perennial top 5 unit even if the defense is bottom of the barrel. 

Just a thought I had that might allow you to better determine whether or not the offensive production was a product of circumstance or ingenuity. 

i didnt dig in to the defensive side much. i considered it when there were anomalies in the data as a means of explaining why a particular season didnt line up with the trend, but not season-by-season. I could probably get some turnover data put together pretty quick though. The only problem i have with turnover data is that its not an accurate reflection of how good or bad an offensive coordinator is. If an offensive player fumbles or throws an interception, its not going to be the fault of the OC. All the other measurements are directly affected by the scheme/adjustments/experience/creativity/gameplanning of the OC. 

[UpstatePanther]

1 hour ago, Cracka McNasty said:

I know the argument could be made that the 2015 defense really helped our 2015 offense due to the takeaways and average field position. It seems like when Shula didn't have a strong Defense, the Offense stuttered as well.

Then you have the opposite in NO with Drew Brees and Co. where the Offense is a perennial top 5 unit even if the defense is bottom of the barrel. 

I will say this, i get the impression that Turner's tenure in Washington would have been more prolific if he would have had a better defense. Remember how i referenced Tony Dungy sticking with Shula in the 90's because Dungy was a first time, defensive head coach that didnt have a firm grasp of offensive concepts? I think the same may have happened to Turner in the 90's too. I think he stuck with Ron Lynn too long, and by the time he brought on Mike Nolan, the defense couldn't get fixed before the Redskins' brass grew impatient with Turner.

[Ricky Spanish]

12 minutes ago, UpstatePanther said:

i didnt dig in to the defensive side much. i considered it when there were anomalies in the data as a means of explaining why a particular season didnt line up with the trend, but not season-by-season. I could probably get some turnover data put together pretty quick though. The only problem i have with turnover data is that its not an accurate reflection of how good or bad an offensive coordinator is. If an offensive player fumbles or throws an interception, its not going to be the fault of the OC. All the other measurements are directly affected by the scheme/adjustments/experience/creativity/gameplanning of the OC. 

I meant more on the defensive side of the ball with forced turnovers. I know we were at the top of the league in 2015, and that lead to quite a few shorter fields that lead to more points for us. 

[countryboi]

if even I wanted to read all this, I have no idea what im reading. 

[Saca312]

5 hours ago, countryboi said:

if even I wanted to read all this, I have no idea what im reading. 

Ok

[countryboi]

5 hours ago, Saca312 said:

Ok

Cliffnotes...Mike Shula sucks

[Saca312]

On 4/6/2018 at 11:36 PM, countryboi said:

Cliffnotes...Mike Shula sucks

duh.

[The Huddler]

[manu4t]

Great post and great work. For those of us who appreciate objective stats and analysis, this is a damn good post.  Thanks for the work on this.