A Tale of Two CBs: Cockrell and Bradberry

[MHS831]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/ross-cockrell/8744

http://www.panthers.com/news/article-2/James-Bradberry-earns-top-grade-among-rookie-corners/93f56a4f-3515-474b-826b-d1128fa14166

I realize that we have discussed CBs a bit, and I realize that some of you have no respect for the PFF rating system, but for a position like CB, I think there is some relevance.  However, many have said that we need to add a CB in the draft.  Not so fast, my friend.  Here is why:

Cockrell had a very high CB rating last year.  He will be 27 or so, entering his prime.  While he was not the #1, he played well in a zone scheme.   He could be a steal.

Bradberry, as a rookie, raised expectations.  He had a tremendous year (link above).  Last year, he slumped, but there were a few variables that must be taken into consideration.  Bradberry was usually locked up on the #1 WR.  We had a new Defensive Coordinator in 2017, his DB coach from 2016.  So he had a new DC and a new DB coach.

So what was the difference between 2016 and 2017?  McDermott out, Wilks in.  The Panthers were going to blitz a lot more often.

"Wilks is calling blitzes on more than 40 percent of passing plays, according to Pro Football Focus, compared with 25.3 percent for the Panthers in 2016, the final season with Carolina for former defensive coordinator Sean McDermott before he was hired as Buffalo’s head coach."

That, math scholars, means the Panthers blitzed 60% more in 2017 than  in 2016 (it sure seemed like more than that).  Blitzing puts much more pressure on the DBs, especially Zone CBs.Only the winless Cleveland Browns blitzed more, and that is because they could not stop the opposition and had to gamble.  That means that Bradberry was locked in man coverage with the opposition's #1 WR 15% more often than in 2016.  ln 2017, QBs and WRs had a year of film on Bradberry.  While he probably slumped some, it is surely understandable.

" The blitz can pay off in sacks and negative yardage, but it also forces more one-on-one matchups on receivers. If the blitz doesn’t pressure the quarterback, the opportunity for a potentially game-changing play increases.  "

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article189407224.html

It is unlikely that we blitz as much in 2018, which means Bradberry's success should return at a rate similar to the decrease.  If Cockrell maintains his rating, then CB is not a problem. We are young at the position; remove Munnerlyn, and everyone is in their mid twenties.  I say draft a pass rusher, not a CB.

Why should we expect to blitz less in 2018?

A new DC, for one. And the addition of Dontari Poe was no accident.  He is a NT who can provide frontal pressure.  The key is going to be Hall.  Can he get to the QB?  I imagine Peppers will be more situational and Hall will play more.  I am not sure you can count on a rookie, but if Harold Landry is there at 24, you have to take him.  So the key to the season is going to be the ability of the front 4 to get pressure.  Poe is an upgrade, and I expect Butler to step up in year 3.  Addison will get his 10 sacks and Peppers probably will get 8 or so.  Horton will stop the run and get 3-5 sacks.  We need an 8-sack season from Hall, in my estimation.

 

[the_philosopher]

40 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

"Wilks is calling blitzes on more than 40 percent of passing plays, according to Pro Football Focus, compared with 25.3 percent for the Panthers in 2016, the final season with Carolina for former defensive coordinator Sean McDermott before he was hired as Buffalo’s head coach."

That, math scholars, means the Panthers blitzed 15% more in 2017 than in 2016 (it sure seemed like more than that).

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article189407224.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article189407224.html#storylink=cpy

Not a math scholar, but the reason it seemed like more than a 15% increase to you is because it certainly was. Going from a blitz rate of 25% in 2016 to 40% in 2017 means the Panthers blitzed 60% more in 2017 than they did in 2016.

[Moo Daeng]

We blitzed an additional 15% of the total plays not 15% more. You have to know the numbers to do the % comparison. 

[the_philosopher]

1 minute ago, Moo Daeng said:

We blitzed an additional 15% of the total plays not 15% more. You have to know the numbers to do the % comparison. 

Again, not a math scholar, but I believe the formula for calculating a relative increase between two numbers is the same for calculating the relative increase between two percentages. 

[Moo Daeng]

4 minutes ago, the_philosopher said:

Again, not a math scholar, but I believe the formula for calculating a relative increase between two numbers is the same for calculating the relative increase between two percentages. 

Sounds right. 

[SetfreexX]

You'd think the fan base would be a bit more excited about our top three DBs right now....

Brabdberry / Cockrell / Munnerlyn

We are legit at all three positions, Searcy and Adams rotating at Safety with a rookie day 1/2 selection gives us one of our better secondaries in recent years. 

Paired with what has the potential to be a better pass rush with the addition of Poe, Butler seeing more time, as well as Hall making his debut after a red-shirt season, and other guys like Horton who's been better each year. I think there's a reason for some cautious optimism. We really don't ''need'' to draft a defensive back this season. 

Gunter / Seymour / Elder / Luke are all depth that I think most of us like.

[MHS831]

55 minutes ago, the_philosopher said:

Not a math scholar, but the reason it seemed like more than a 15% increase to you is because it certainly was. Going from a blitz rate of 25% in 2016 to 40% in 2017 means the Panthers blitzed 60% more in 2017 than they did in 2016.

I fixed it.  The team blitzed 40% vs 25%, which is an increase of 15% per game more.  However, they increased their blitzing 60%.  I was an English major for this reason. 

[ericr0319]

Going into FA I was dying for a CB in the first. Now, I would not be made, but adding two guys in FA and cutting none of our current players, it would make no sense. That said, we have a history of drafting in the 1st round not for need. 

[ericr0319]

I think if we take a safety in the 1st round we are 100% reaching. It is our biggest need, but at 24 there will be at least 10-15 better players than the best safety on the board. 

[MHS831]

25 minutes ago, SetfreexX said:

You'd think the fan base would be a bit more excited about our top three DBs right now....

Brabdberry / Cockrell / Munnerlyn

We are legit at all three positions, Searcy and Adams rotating at Safety with a rookie day 1/2 selection gives us one of our better secondaries in recent years. 

Paired with what has the potential to be a better pass rush with the addition of Poe, Butler seeing more time, as well as Hall making his debut after a red-shirt season, and other guys like Horton who's been better each year. I think there's a reason for some cautious optimism. We really don't ''need'' to draft a defensive back this season. 

Gunter / Seymour / Elder / Luke are all depth that I think most of us like.

1. Well said.  With so many young CBs, I just think an early CB pick prevents one or two from developing.  Not many 22-year old CBs play much.  But we have a solid group of young Zone CBs who have experience:

AGES

• Bradberry 24
• Cockrell 26
• Elder 23
• Gunter 25
• Munnerlyn 29
• Seymour 24

 

[mc52beast]

I’m not a math scholar, but I DO know this;

 

 

 

 

If you score more points than you give up, it equals a win

[MHS831]

7 minutes ago, ericr0319 said:

I think if we take a safety in the 1st round we are 100% reaching. It is our biggest need, but at 24 there will be at least 10-15 better players than the best safety on the board. 

I really think we take Harold Landry, Calvin Ridley, or DJ Moore--if any are available.  After that, who knows?

[MHS831]

7 minutes ago, mc52beast said:

I’m not a math scholar, but I DO know this;

 

 

 

 

If you score more points than you give up, it equals a win

Not in golf.

[Devil Doc]

42 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I fixed it.  The team blitzed 40% vs 25%, which is an increase of 15% per game more.  However, they increased their blitzing 60%.  I was an English major for this reason. 

I really dont know what my Major is... and I have 3 classes to finish my Bachelors... lol.