Determining Needs priorties through reverse argumentation

[heel31ok]

1 hour ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

 - I think it's the other way around. There are 2 safeties that will probably be available at #24, Eric Reid and Ronnie Harrison. Any TE at #24 would be a substantial reach. 

- There are 4 top TE's in this draft: Hurst, Goedert, Gesicki, and Andrews.  Gesicki and Andrews are basically big slot WR's who don't block. And we need our TE2 to be able to block. 

That would be Justin Reid...but your breakdown is spot on...

[Ivan The Awesome]

I think the X factor that no one is talking about is definitely Norv Turner and his way of using the pieces we have. Shula had a good play book it was just his play calling was the down fall. He was also not creative enough to change his game plan. He didn't have creases. 

 

Norv on the other hand does have creases to his game plans. The playbook is more diverse. I mean, with the simple addition of a bootleg he already altered Shulas playbook and is using the personnel in a different manner that he won't need to have a very diverse and different unit. 

 

I honestly believe this will soften the blow of at least the WR "need", to the point that it will be completely be taken off unless something like Calvin Ridley dropping to 24 happens. This also will make it so they draft a RB and TE in lower rounds unless a top prospect falls into their laps. 

 

Making Safety a sure thing for the first couple of rounds. 

 

At least that's my take on it. 

[Chardee MacDennis]

At this point, I think you go into the draft with the expectation that you should see BPA taken. And at the same time, there will be players taken who you think should have been taken much further down the draft, and don't really fit well with what is needed.

That's how every draft goes. 

So, prepare for none of your favorite players to be taken, and be ready to research on the fly when you hear the pick named and have never heard of him before.

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, Chardee MacDennis said:

At this point, I think you go into the draft with the expectation that you should see BPA taken. And at the same time, there will be players taken who you think should have been taken much further down the draft, and don't really fit well with what is needed.

That's how every draft goes. 

So, prepare for none of your favorite players to be taken, and be ready to research on the fly when you hear the pick named and have never heard of him before.

I see this. Hurney has done an admirable job of putting us in position to go after the BPA, having filled WR, DT, DE, S and CB with players who can compete for the job--and that is the point of the thread.  I think we have addressed the OG need  as well.  Where are we in a position that will necessitate help through the draft?  I would say that we did not address TE and with the 2 TE sets, we cannot expect to go with Manhertz--unless the 6-2, 255 lb Armah is in the plans there (pure speculation).  Does that mean TE in the first?  I hope not.  I am happy with  some of the day 3 TEs, frankly.  Shultz, Thomas, Smythe--all capable of handling the #2 TE job.

I am guessing that our need areas intensify the value of a player so that a player at a need area--or an area where we stand to improve---jumps out.

[heel31ok]

1 hour ago, Chardee MacDennis said:

At this point, I think you go into the draft with the expectation that you should see BPA taken. And at the same time, there will be players taken who you think should have been taken much further down the draft, and don't really fit well with what is needed.

That's how every draft goes. 

So, prepare for none of your favorite players to be taken, and be ready to research on the fly when you hear the pick named and have never heard of him before.

Oh, my favorites will be taken...mark that down...

[TheSpecialJuan]

3 hours ago, stbugs said:

I'd be disappointed going TE in the first just because I don't think they are the best value. So much more risk and if they can't block, they aren't going to see the field at all rookie year for Rivera. None of them are good enough to become Olsen and if you draft a TE in the first, they should have that potential. That's why I dislike DE in the 1st as well. None of them that will be available (like Chubb) are studs IMHO. Marcus Davenport reminds me of Tanoh Kpassagnon, who went 59th last year and Davenport could be a mid first this year because there's no one behind Chubb. I know Tanoh is a bigger guy, but I think it shows how weak the DE class is this year.

I'd rather take a chance on a CB who could be our Josh Norman part deux (or better) or a possible pro-bowl G/C or the guy below. Heck, I'd even be OK with Ridley (not going to happen) or Moore. While I don't think WR is as much of a need, if Norv feels he's got a guy he thinks can be a stud WR, I'm OK with that. Stud WRs are drafted and getting a top WR to team with Funchess along with some other deep threats makes Cam hard to stop. Also, I think with a few pieces we can compete for a SB this year so maybe I am a bit short sighted, but I want our top picks making an impact this year. We've got three 2nd year players who could provide an impact as well.

 

I'm getting excited about the possibility of Eric Reid at 24. He would immediately make our secondary better

[heel31ok]

1 hour ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

I'm getting excited about the possibility of Eric Reid at 24. He would immediately make our secondary better

or Justin Reid...

[Jens]

I would go O-line in the first. Our basic need.

 

[Jens]

2 hours ago, heel31ok said:

or Justin Reid...

Great choices to.

 

Just now, Jens said:

I would go O-line in the first. Our basic need.

 

 

[Mr. Scot]

Interesting thought process, MHS.

[heel31ok]

11 hours ago, Jens said:

Great choices to.

 

 

What are your thoughts on O-Line ?

[heel31ok]

5 hours ago, Marcogreenbush said:

What if Sanjay is actually use reverse psychology and he doesn't think Te  is our biggest need

Funny , because it is quickly becoming a need...

[shaqattaq]

On 3/31/2018 at 6:33 PM, Thama said:

I agree that safety is easily our biggest need, and the one position where we HAVE to (not would LIKE to) land a day 1 starter. That's also the reason I think Justin Reid should be our pick. But the counterargument against drafting a safety early is that the free agent market is absolutely glutted with experienced safeties with a lot of football left in them, and that glut means that after the draft they are likely to be cheap. So why reach on a position where there's a very good chance you can get a proven NFL starter in post-draft FA for a very modest investment?

Nice point. I hadn't considered this.

[shaqattaq]

This is fun, great post! I'm not going to repost all the data, but I did consider it all before posting. Here are my draft picks:

1. TE - Manhurtz has never shown me anything and has limited snaps. He's not a Greg replacement if Olsen gets hurt. Also, Greg is already lining up broadcaster jobs for the future. I would not be surprised if he retired after this year. TE or S are our biggest needs, but there are only a few game changing TE's coming out every year, and S is devalued (see the FA still in a holding pattern). We have a chance of grabbing the #1 TE prospect at 24, I like Goedert personally, but a case could be made for Gesicki or Hurst.

2. C -  I originally had Rasheen Green, DE from USC,  here, and still would love the pick. But for the purpose of this exercise, DE isn't as big of a need as Center. Pepp resigned, and I have high hopes for Hall. So, I'm picking James Daniel from Iowa. IF, Kalil can stay healthy, he's the starter (no brainer), but that's a big if. Larsen held his own last year as a back-up, but I'm not so sure that he's ever going to be anything but a backup. Daniel also has starts at LG at Iowa, so he could push for a starting role day 1.

3. S - logic shows that this is by far more of a need than C since we have a starter and a competent backup center on the roster, but it's a deep draft and I think there's talent to be found at the back of the 3rd round whereas TE and C drop off a lot after the top few guys. I'm looking at Marcus Allen from Penn State. He's a thumper, smart, high character and motivated. He may not be a day 1 starter, but will soak up knowledge from Searcy and Adams, and get plenty of play time. Also, I sincerely hope that Colin Jones never touches the field unless it for ST.

3b - CB - I'm big on Bradberry. Last year was a sophomore slump, he'll bounce back this year. Seymour was already taking time away from Worley last season, so we're no worse off there. I'm excited to see how Gunter and Cockrell do in our zone-heavy system. Both seem to thrive in the zone. Captain and Corn are our nickels. 8 CB's is a lot, Seymour or Gunter may not make the team. Although I would love to grab a future lock down guy in the first 2 rounds, we have bigger needs. Tavarus McFadden from Florida State might be a steal in the 3rd round. He has the size and skills to succeed in the NFL. His only knock is speed (4.67 40), but I actually saw him play a little this season, and he plays quicker than that.

5. RB - I'm all for giving CAP a try, but still have my doubts that he's the punishing, blocking, downhill runner that Stew was. I think that Dimitri Flowers from OK can be. They used him as a FB, but I think he can pound out yards to soften up the D for CMC, plus he's a pass catcher out of the backfield who never dropped a pass in 4 years of college.

I actually like the approach that Hurney has taken with the WR corps. Nothing flashy, but role guys that fill very specific needs. Could we improve? Hell yea! But we're better than we were. We'll have more money in FA to spend next year.