Determining Needs priorties through reverse argumentation

[Jangler]

little titties big titties 

That's all I got.

and this...

 

[panther4life]

Thanks OP for finding ways to find good stuff to talk about while we wait for the draft. Heres my 2 cents, using your method. 

 First I like to start by looking at replacing lost snaps from last year. In order of most snaps played from departed players and the percentage of snaps they played on offense or defense. With one caveat, Dickson saw his snap count explode due to the Olsen Injury, so I will used the average of his snap counts from 15 and 16. I will only include players with a minimum of 8% of the snap counts. I also left Benjamin off because we traded him midseason and was not an offseason loss. 

OFFENSE

1. Norwell: 1066, 100%
2. Dickson: 533, 48.68%
3. Stewart: 403, 37.80%
4. Kailen Clay, 176,16.51%

*** Of course he's still currently on the team but we can not have Russell Shepard play 479 snaps and 44.93% of the offensive snaps again this year

Is the answer on the roster for any of these positions?

• LG: I saw Amini start 3 games at RG last year, Moton started 0. Plausible he could be the answer but I don't want to bank on it.
• 2ND TE:We can all agree 100% Manhertz is not the answer.
• 2ND RB: We not only need to replace Stewarts snaps but also need improved play from the position. Cap is not the guy for the job imo. 
• WR, well the only thing we know we have for sure is Funchess. However he's in the last year of his rookie deal and who knows if he's in the plans long term or not just yet. This season should clear that up. Behind him we have Samuel and Byrd returning plus the additions of Torrey Smith and Jairus Wright. If Funchess goes down this would be devastating to us.

DEFENSE

1. Worley, 726, 72.89%
2. Coleman, 716, 71.89%
3. Star, 586, 70.38%
4. Johnson, 389,39.06

• CB2, Cockrell is the answer and upgrade we are looking for to replace Worley. 
• FS, this is similar to Stewart on offense, we not only need a body there but an upgrade over Coleman. Is Searcy that? In a word no. Best case scenario is he's a wash.
• DT, Duh, Poe is a beast and will bring everything to the table Star did plus some. 
• DE,  Peppers actually played more than CJ last year. So him and Addison will make up our primary pass rushers. Plus we still have Horton and Hall returning for his redshirt rookie season.

So heres my top 5 needs for the team. I am considering all the info above plus the importance that position plays into our overall success.

1. LG, Only the coaches know the low down here on if Moton is the guy or not. I don't think they are ready to say he is anything more than competition for the spot at this point and I feel the same. Norwell was our biggest loss in talent and he played 100% of the snaps last year. I've seen Cam work miracles with underwhelming play from the other skill positions on offense(look no further than 2015 when he won the MVP). I have also seen what bad o-line play does to his ability to carry a team and really affect his  swagger, confidence, and even care level.Giving him solid protection is the most important thing you can do for Cam and this team as a whole.

2. FS, Coleman did not live up to his contract last year so it he was an easy decision to cut. Still leaves a void as he was on the field a ton last year. Searcy to me seems the like the Jeremiah Sirles of the secondary. I think he can probably fill in at any position in a pinch and would play like a top reserve, but can not be counted on as a full time Starter.

3. # 2 RB, Stewart is past his prime and he's been reduced to showing flashes of him former self. Another player we were forced to move on from because they cant be counted on in that role, especially not a high cap number. Somebody needs to be there to take the Burden off CMC. Who's going to respect our run game when McCaffrey motions out wide if Cap is back there? Sure they'll be concered with Cam but they won't move an 8th defender in the box because of CAP or Whittaker. Or what happens to our offense if CMC goes down and theres no competent back to fill his role in the run and pass game?

4. WR, If we are simply comparing to the pile of poo we have surrounded Cam with here for the past few years, then I guess this does not look so urgent. Things could get catastrophic if Funchess were to go down. If I had seen more of Samuel and knew for sure he can be a legit weapon I'd feel much more confident here. 

5. TE, I mean damn talk about a tough decision. I could make a strong argument for defensive end here as well. But a lot the same arguments I made it for it were the same for T.E. Peppers is done next year so we need a replacement at DE, however its also possible Olsen is done next year too! Not only that we at least have competition behind him at DE, whereas we have virtually none behind Olsen.

 

 

 

[WOW!!]

I think as a GM you need to look at the strength of this draft and forecast the strenght of future drafts.  

This draft is strong in Secondary, RB s and guards.  It is weak in pass rusher, WR and OT.  Next year could be   strong  in those position.. But right now you have a chance to definitely get day one starters at CB, Saferty, OG, and RB so you should take advantage of that..

[TheSpecialJuan]

Excellent thread, very informative.

[MtnProwler]

I like how you included snap count to prove your arguement, good objective facts.

 

[MtnProwler]

Staying objective, based on your snap count it looks like we would benefit more, by 11% (2015-2016 seasons), to have more of a concern for Dickson's replacement over Stewarts. For that reason, I would move TE to be in ahead of RB and in the top 3 with LG/OL and FS.

[musicman]

Good stuff. I don't think they'll reach in the 1st 3 rounds so IMO it's wide open. If a safety is 2 or 3 off the BPA when they pick, it could go #1, but I think that logic goes for OL, TE or CB. Heck if a great DE falls, I see them grabbing him. Unless they got someone in mind and trade up or down to get him, i think that's what we see. 

I also see them still picking up a vet Safety (I hope for Tre B). Gonna be fun seeing how it shapes up but even more fun t see how Turner affects the offense.

[heel31ok]

7 hours ago, WOW!! said:

I think as a GM you need to look at the strength of this draft and forecast the strenght of future drafts.  

This draft is strong in Secondary, RB s and guards.  It is weak in pass rusher, WR and OT.  Next year could be   strong  in those position.. But right now you have a chance to definitely get day one starters at CB, Saferty, OG, and RB so you should take advantage of that..

That is a sensible approach...

[heel31ok]

2 hours ago, musicman said:

Good stuff. I don't think they'll reach in the 1st 3 rounds so IMO it's wide open. If a safety is 2 or 3 off the BPA when they pick, it could go #1, but I think that logic goes for OL, TE or CB. Heck if a great DE falls, I see them grabbing him. Unless they got someone in mind and trade up or down to get him, i think that's what we see. 

I also see them still picking up a vet Safety (I hope for Tre B). Gonna be fun seeing how it shapes up but even more fun t see how Turner affects the offense.

It just goes to show how wide open this draft is for us...many options 

[stirs]

If you blitz constantly, you constantly expose your secondary.

If you blitz constantly, then the occasional sack by a DLineman should count the same as if you didn't blitz?

[Devil Doc]

As a Barracks and Jail Lawyer... I agree with the analytical analysis of the previous information given. 

[AU-panther]

Great post

I've thought for awhile that both safety and TE could be high on the list.  If we do go that way it seems to me TE in the first then S in the second.  

There seems to be a gap between the top 3 TEs and then the rest of them, and I don't see any of the top 3 being there with our second pick.

Maybe Hurst in the first and Bates in the second?

or

Hurst in the first and Terrell Edmunds in the third. Could use second on a RB (Penny or Chubb).  Maybe the center from Ark.

 

 

 

[TheSpecialJuan]

14 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Great post

I've thought for awhile that both safety and TE could be high on the list.  If we do go that way it seems to me TE in the first then S in the second.  

There seems to be a gap between the top 3 TEs and then the rest of them, and I don't see any of the top 3 being there with our second pick.

Maybe Hurst in the first and Bates in the second?

or

Hurst in the first and Terrell Edmunds in the third. Could use second on a RB (Penny or Chubb).  Maybe the center from Ark.

 

 

 

1

 - I think it's the other way around. There are 2 safeties that will probably be available at #24, Eric Reid and Ronnie Harrison. Any TE at #24 would be a substantial reach. 

- There are 4 top TE's in this draft: Hurst, Goedert, Gesicki, and Andrews.  Gesicki and Andrews are basically big slot WR's who don't block. And we need our TE2 to be able to block. 

[AU-panther]

10 minutes ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

 - I think it's the other way around. There are 2 safeties that will probably be available at #24, Eric Reid and Ronnie Harrison. Any TE at #24 would be a substantial reach. 

- There are 4 top TE's in this draft: Hurst, Goedert, Gesicki, and Andrews.  Gesicki and Andrews are basically big slot WR's who don't block. And we need our TE2 to be able to block. 

I think Hurst and Goedert both have a good chance to go in the 1st.  Gesicki will probably go in the second before our pick.  I might would prefer Hurst and Bates then Reid and Andrews.