Reading the LG tea leaves

[mc52beast]

Saying that Amini is in his “prime” is like saying Byron Bell has left tackle feet

[MHS831]

57 minutes ago, The Huddler said:

I know you guys are trying to be creative to make the titles of these threads better, but it just makes them worse ..

Not really.  Reading the tea leaves is a metaphor that most people know means "predicting the future." We are predicting what the Panthers will do at LG.  If there is an established protocol that suggests figurative language of any kind is strongly ill-advised, please share these guidelines and accept my apology.

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, panther4life said:

Good post @MHS831. I understand your vantage point and you very well could be right about Moton starting at LG next year.

However, I have a differing perspective and don't think we can write LG out of the question for the 1st round. 

Looking at our departed starters in F.A, we already replaced Star and likely upgraded the CB position over Worley and at minimum Corn Elder will compete for the nickel job. Our biggest holes remain replacing the Production lost at G, Safety and RB. Of course we cut both Stewart and Coleman because they were underperforming so those needs were there even last year. Historically you're better off gambling until later rounds on those 2 positions unless you have a shot at an elite player. Lastly WR and DE could definitely use some competition as well. 

Looking at this years draft class we will be lucky to have our choice of 1-3 of these scenarios coming true.

• Picking the 1st WR
• Picking the 2nd o-lineman
• Picking the 3rd safety
• Picking the 3rd Corner 
• Picking the 3rd DE 
• Picking the 2nd RB 

The 2nd best offensive lineman (and be expected to start at LG next year) may be the best option we have at 24 and something I think has about as equal odds as any other position at 24 at this point.

I 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The last time I was right was when I predicted that we would draft a Georgia SS at #10 and convert him to LB.

[CPF4LIFE]

If any of our starting OTs goes down or Kalil goes the Remmers route and gets significantly worse not better we are fugED. 

[shaqattaq]

4 hours ago, manu4t said:

Hopefully we see as little of Silatolu as possible.

Twice a year when he's riding Tampa's bench or giving up sacks on Winston.

[MtnProwler]

The same arguement about our search for LG can be said for WR#2, CB, and S. Depending on one's opinion they could make the same arguement that the answer is on the roster. if C is of major concern for 2019, one could argue that DE, TE, S, And LB are just as important with players retiring. I believe what this thread shows is that we could go BPA with anyone that's a OL, CB, WR, S.

[SmokinwithWilly]

5 hours ago, AU-panther said:

I've considered him for awhile now just because I think he could fill a need and there is a good chance he could be there at 24.

A lot is going to depend on how they really feel about Matt Kalil.  Releasing him next year could free up considerable cap space but we don't seem to have a replacement on the roster at the moment.

 

We don't have a replacement on the roster, even with Matt Kalil. 

[trucpfan]

58 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

About a month ago or more, they asked RR if he was going to move Moton to LG--he said, "Moton is a Tackle."

Now he is saying what we all thought when Norwell left.  Moton to G.

This is the funniest poo I've heard him say in a while. I definitely think Norv a offensive minded excellent coordinator brings a different mojo then a Yes man or a guy happy to have a opportunity he's here to complete the puzzle. 

2 hours ago, stirs said:

Connor Williams can play T and G now and can also play Center in time if need be

I'm feeling this kid he serves multiple purposes could be a key cog for our 2019 roster.

2 hours ago, MHS831 said:

I think we may take our next C this year, only because we do not want a rookie C in 2019--but we really should not prioritize C now. They like Arkansas C Ragnow as well.  LSU's Clapp might be in play on day 3...

Yea we need to groom him for a year make sure he can handle a Fletcher C type coming right at him.

[manu4t]

6 hours ago, MHS831 said:

I think we may take our next C this year, only because we do not want a rookie C in 2019--but we really should not prioritize C now. They like Arkansas C Ragnow as well.  LSU's Clapp might be in play on day 3...

True. Depends on whether Larsen can bridge the gap if they don’t want to start a rookie at C next season 

[davos]

You're forgetting the gent who got OG playing time last season OP:

Ftture HOFer Greg Van Roten!!

[Toomers]

6 hours ago, AU-panther said:

I've considered him for awhile now just because I think he could fill a need and there is a good chance he could be there at 24.

A lot is going to depend on how they really feel about Matt Kalil.  Releasing him next year could free up considerable cap space but we don't seem to have a replacement on the roster at the moment.

 

How is going from a 6.9M cap hit in 2018 to a dead cap hit of 14.7M in 2019,, freeing up considerable cap space. And then having to replace him. 

[MHS831]

4 hours ago, CPF4LIFE said:

If any of our starting OTs goes down or Kalil goes the Remmers route and gets significantly worse not better we are fugED. 

When we signed Banner and Sirles (sp?) is that when we decided to move Moton to G?  Even so,  we still have Silatolu. (aaaah).  Seriously, we would probably move Moton outside and Sirles to G.

[MHS831]

47 minutes ago, davos said:

You're forgetting the gent who got OG playing time last season OP:

Ftture HOFer Greg Van Roten!!

I watched him in preseason and LOVED him.  Not kidding.  Wonder what we have in  him?

[AU-panther]

1 hour ago, Toomers said:

How is going from a 6.9M cap hit in 2018 to a dead cap hit of 14.7M in 2019,, freeing up considerable cap space. And then having to replace him. 

I just posted this in another thread but i'll copy here:

not necessarily

You are correct that his cap cost if cut would be $14.9m as opposed to $12.9m if he plays, so on the surface it seem like that is a loss of cap space but its not that simple.  Lets look at making him a June 1 cut next year opposed to keeping him in 2019 and 2020.

2019 cap hit if he plays 12.9m - 2019 dead money if cut 4.9m = 8m savings in cap space

2020 cap hit if he plays 15.9m- 2020 dead money 9.8m = 6.1m savings in cap space

Can we replace his production for $14m over two years.

That example compares his cost compared to keeping him for two more years.

 

What if we decide to just keep him for one more year after this year.

2019 cap hit 12.9m +2020 dead money $9.8m = 22.7m 

if you cut him after his year = 14.9m cap hit for his dead money

Basically if he is cut next summer it will cost us 14.7m in cap space, if he plays next year and then is cut he will cost us 22.7m in cap space. You save 8m in cap space that way.

What if we draft his replacement this year or next

2019 Kalil cap hit if June 1st cut 4.9m + 2019 cap hit of pick 24 this year 2.5m = 7.4m

2020 Kalil cap hit if June 1st cut 9.8m + 2020 cap hit of pick 24 this year 3.1m = 12.9m

As you can see even if you factor in his replacement cost it still cheaper.  7.4m vs 12.9m in 2019, so 5.5m in wsavings.  12.9m vs 15.9m in 2020 so 3m in savings.

People get confused looking at dead money.  That money has already bein paid, there is nothing you can do to reduce it.  It seems bad to have 14.7m in dead money on your books but you have to compare it to the total cap cost if a player stays.