The case to release Ryan Kalil, JStew, and CJ

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, grimesgoat said:

Thanks.  Good stuff.

Its always risky to apply average data to individuals.  According to the tackle chart - Matt Kalil is entering his prime whereas A Whitworth, who is 36, should perform like a 2nd year guy.  We all know, that didn't work out exactly right last year.

I can see it having some value in team building/ contract construction / drafting strategy etc. - but not very useful in deciding whether to cut a guy.

Ha,  It is probably more risky to dispute norms based on the exceptions of a few.  I get your point.  I think there are franchises that break emotional ties  and move players before they hit the wall are the most successful.  If you look at the cost/performance breakdown (which is what I did with Stew), rarely do they earn their salaries at the end. Using math to predict that end could be a good gamble--like a stock broker using earnings reports to predict performance.   In a salary cap era, it makes no sense to pay aging vets when other positions have needs that are not being addressed.  Kalil and Stew save the franchise $10m if we cut both.  What is Norwell getting? 
Check the center graph and we may conclude that bringing in a C right now is not a great idea--rookies do not do well, as a rule.

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Check the center graph and we may conclude that bringing in a C right now is not a great idea--rookies do not do well, as a rule.

Larsen played pretty well. I'm all for drafting one and letting him battle it out with Larsen. If he isn't ready, fine. Let him sit and learn behind Larsen. Gotta get that learning curve started at some point. If you wait until next year to draft one then you're just another year behind. This looks to be a strong and deep center class. Get one.

[Icege]

12 hours ago, SCO96 said:

Several years ago there was a football site called Cold Hard Football Facts .com. I think they eventually merged with SB nation so I doubt you can find any of their old articles. Most of them were very well written and researched.

They had an interesting take on the peak /decline of running backs. Although most running backs to experience steep declines in production between the ages of 28-30 like you've pointed out, it isn't necessarily due to the numerical age. Their data showed that after a certain number of carries (and hits) the performance falls off. I wish I could find the article, but I think it said the decline starts around the 2,200 carry mark even for the best backs. A back that carries the ball 300 times per season will hit that mark between his 7th and 8th seasons, which lines up perfectly with your data.

RB's who averaged around 250 carries per year were able to play and be productive in their early 30's. Tiki Barber had a 1,600 yd season around age 31, but for most of his career he shared carries with other backs. The article pointed out that Jim Brown never had 300 carry season so probably could have played at a very high level for 3 more seasons when he retired at 29. Earl Campbell on the other hand peaked after 6 seasons because the Oilers ran him into the ground.

The one freak of nature on the list was John Riggins. He's the only HoFamer who rushed for more yards in his 30's than he did in his 20's.

This is perhaps, for me, the biggest reason that I'm okay with JStew staying for one more year.

We saved a lot of wear and tear on him since he split carries with DWill and now recently CMC. If the OL can sustain decent run blocking, I think he'll do alright. While he might not have been astounding last season, he did have the best game of his career as well.

[JARROD]

If we can draft a guy that is even a poor mans Jonathan Stewart and the cap number from a draft is only like a million a year then great, cut Stewart.

but if everyone screams to cut him, and we only save 3.7 million

who the hell do you replace him with for 3.7 million?

Blount maybe? He was only like 2 million. 

But is Blount really any better than Jonathan? 

Easy to say such thing when he played for Patriots followed by Eagles who have true passing games to defend.

CJ is easy,.. gone dude.  Ryan Kalil is the question also. He save what? 7 million? 

Who do you replace him with?

[PantherNation123]

On 2/8/2018 at 8:03 AM, mjligon said:

Well, he actually is paid next to nothing.

https://overthecap.com/position/safety/

You're not going to get better by cutting the lone bright spot in our secondary and turning around paying someone else similar money who may or may not even be an upgrade.

 Keeping him around as a backup/role player is ideal, which would also imply he isn’t going anywhere.

 

I get what you're saying...  but he was not a "bright spot".  He too was often torched, and missed a number of tackles (which was what he was brought here NOT to do)

[heel31ok]

On 2/8/2018 at 12:16 PM, LinvilleGorge said:

Larsen played pretty well. I'm all for drafting one and letting him battle it out with Larsen. If he isn't ready, fine. Let him sit and learn behind Larsen. Gotta get that learning curve started at some point. If you wait until next year to draft one then you're just another year behind. This looks to be a strong and deep center class. Get one.

Larsen already started the learning curve...lets start the curve on a LT...

[heel31ok]

On 2/8/2018 at 10:24 PM, JARROD said:

If we can draft a guy that is even a poor mans Jonathan Stewart and the cap number from a draft is only like a million a year then great, cut Stewart.

but if everyone screams to cut him, and we only save 3.7 million

who the hell do you replace him with for 3.7 million?

Blount maybe? He was only like 2 million. 

But is Blount really any better than Jonathan? 

Easy to say such thing when he played for Patriots followed by Eagles who have true passing games to defend.

CJ is easy,.. gone dude.  Ryan Kalil is the question also. He save what? 7 million? 

Who do you replace him with?

Larsen...

[MHS831]

On 2/8/2018 at 12:16 PM, LinvilleGorge said:

Larsen played pretty well. I'm all for drafting one and letting him battle it out with Larsen. If he isn't ready, fine. Let him sit and learn behind Larsen. Gotta get that learning curve started at some point. If you wait until next year to draft one then you're just another year behind. This looks to be a strong and deep center class. Get one.

I am not sure how well he was at calling the schemes at the LOS.  There was difference when Kalil re-entered the lineup, but Kalil was not always as good either.  I agree on drafting the C now--There are about 6 who could be starting in a year or two.  However, if we have 2 all pro guards and a (eventually) all pro RT, get us a decent LT, we are in very good shape.   I also think we need a LT in the draft---I am hoping for Brandon Parker in the third round.  I know the family---class act.  He also has good feet, hands and 35+inch arms.   He is a bit weak right now (20 reps), but that will change.

[heel31ok]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

I am not sure how well he was at calling the schemes at the LOS.  There was difference when Kalil re-entered the lineup, but Kalil was not always as good either.  I agree on drafting the C now--There are about 6 who could be starting in a year or two.  However, if we have 2 all pro guards and a (eventually) all pro RT, get us a decent LT, we are in very good shape.   I also think we need a LT in the draft---I am hoping for Brandon Parker in the third round.  I know the family---class act.  He also has good feet, hands and 35+inch arms.   He is a bit weak right now (20 reps), but that will change.

definitely need to draft a LT...I am sure that Larsen is preparing himself for another opportunity at C and nothing says he can't do a great job... he is a step ahead of another draft pick...if   McGlinchy is there at 24 we should take him...or at least consider taking him ...there are some decent options in first three rounds at OT...I like the looks of Brian O'neill from pitt...