The case to release Ryan Kalil, JStew, and CJ

[LinvilleGorge]

Just now, pantherclaw said:

Do you understand he won't be cut? Definitely not before the draft.

He'll most likely be on the roster this up coming season. 

No matter how you feel about him.

I understand that I have absolutely no idea what will happen since the Panthers' front office is a complete and utter poo show right now.

[grimesgoat]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Do you understand probability? Because you're speaking in concrete terms while I'm speaking in terms of probability. 

Ryan missed half a season last year because he woke up with a crick in his neck.

I understand probability.

If I flip a fair coin and it comes up heads, what are the chances I flip it again and it comes up heads again. (hint - its still 50%).

My understanding is that Kalil's injury was mostly random or pure chance.  Going into the season, the probability of him missing 4 games last year was maybe 25%.  The probability of him missing 8 games last year was maybe 10%.  These probabilities may increase slightly this year because he is a year older.  But it is certainly not a given that he will miss 8 games next year because he missed 8 games in 2017.  Random occurrences do not work that way.

 

[Mr. Scot]

Clearly not a big fan of the "final lap" notion, I see.

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, grimesgoat said:

I understand probability.

If I flip a fair coin and it comes up heads, what are the chances I flip it again and it comes up heads again. (hint - its still 50%).

My understanding is that Kalil's injury was mostly random or pure chance.  Going into the season, the probability of him missing 4 games last year was maybe 25%.  The probability of him missing 8 games last year was maybe 10%.  These probabilities may increase slightly this year because he is a year older.  But it is certainly not a given that he will miss 8 games next year because he missed 8 games in 2017.  Random occurrences do not work that way.

 

The coin flip comparison is an awful one to use for an aging injury prone player and if you understand probability then you know that. Injuries for an aging player dealing with an entire football career's worth of wear and tear aren't exactly random occurrences.

[Doc Holiday]

4 hours ago, Ace_Aladdin said:

Idk about Kalil but yes for them and maybe add:

Adams

Colin Jones

Dickson

Gano

This should free enough cap space to extend Star & Norwell  while adding dcecent FA.

Gano played great this year, Adams played great(he is old as dirt) Jones is a backup and just fine. And Dickson is a backup as well and is just fine.

i wouldn’t cut anyone you listed.

if we can fine someone better/younger then Adams that would be great. But as of right now he is still our best SS on the roster.

[SCO96]

I realize that Stewart is on the backend of his career, but I think he can still contribute. His cap hit is a little high though based on last season's production. If he were willing to take a pay cut I'd bring him back.

We could free up a little bit of money by releasing Whitaker and Artis-Payne. Whitaker doesn't bring anything to the table that CMac doesn't so he isn't vital to our offense. I don't think Artis-Payne has ever really been given a shot to prove himself in Carolina. I don't believe he had 30 carries all season. He wasn't even active for several games this season.  If he isn't going to be used anymore than that and isn't playing on the ST squad, then I don't see why he's taking up a roster spot. Dropping those two would save over 1.8 mil and free up a little money to sign a RB after the 2nd round or a player at another position of need.

I visited  the Spotrac site and played with the manage roster option. Releasing the above to players and C.Johnson and R.Shepard would free up $7,000,000 and put the cap space over $19,000,000. That doesn't sound like a lot of money, but it would allow you find replacements for those players in the draft or sign use it to sign a FA. If we lost all 4 of those guys it would have no affect at all on the Panther's on field performance.

 

[LinvilleGorge]

6 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

I realize that Stewart is on the backend of his career, but I think he can still contribute. His cap hit is a little high though based on last season's production. If he were willing to take a pay cut I'd bring him back.

We could free up a little bit of money by releasing Whitaker and Artis-Payne. Whitaker doesn't bring anything to the table that CMac doesn't so he isn't vital to our offense. I don't think Artis-Payne has ever really been given a shot to prove himself in Carolina. I don't believe he had 30 carries all season. He wasn't even active for several games this season.  If he isn't going to be used anymore than that and isn't playing on the ST squad, then I don't see why he's taking up a roster spot. Dropping those two would save over 1.8 mil and free up a little money to sign a RB after the 2nd round or a player at another position of need.

I visited  the Spotrac site and played with the manage roster option. Releasing the above to players and C.Johnson and R.Shepard would free up $7,000,000 and put the cap space over $19,000,000. That doesn't sound like a lot of money, but it would allow you find replacements for those players in the draft or sign use it to sign a FA. If we lost all 4 of those guys it would have no affect at all on the Panther's on field performance.

 

I had wanted to see CAP in an expanded role in the offense right up until we saw that this season when Stew was out. There were miscommunications right and left with him out there at least one of which I remember leading directly to a fumble. That's when I realized why he wasn't getting more run.

[SCO96]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I had wanted to see CAP in an expanded role in the offense right up until we saw that this season when Stew was out. There were miscommunications right and left with him out there at least one of which I remember leading directly to a fumble. That's when I realized why he wasn't getting more run.

Do you think we should move on from him and pick a back in the 3rd or 4th round?

[LinvilleGorge]

2 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

Do you think we should move on from him and pick a back in the 3rd or 4th round?

Yeah, I think we should move on from him and pick another RB in the mid-late rounds or sign a mid-level free agent to pair with CMC.

[TheSpecialJuan]

At this point what is important is WHO will be making these decisions. The last few years we've made our major cuts right before the combine (Feb 21st last year) we need to resolve this GM issue as soon as possible. 

[PantherPhann89]

I'm not totally sold on Stew being cut because I don't believe that another RB would be more productive behind the same o- line.  Stew average was higher earlier in his career because the o- line was a better run blocking line then. Our run blocking line right now is terrible. 

[JARROD]

Screw that, just go sign Blount and Ivory and call it a day.

 

[Thanatos]

Marty won't release them at all and Gman would release all of them and then bring in veteran FAs at 1/10th the price that couldn't really fill their shoes and then the Huddle would brag about how much cap space we had.

[grimesgoat]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

The coin flip comparison is an awful one to use for an aging injury prone player and if you understand probability then you know that. Injuries for an aging player dealing with an entire football career's worth of wear and tear aren't exactly random occurrences.

I wasn't putting the probability of Kalil injury causing missing 10 games at 50/50.  Simply pointing out prior events do not influence future events if they are truly random. 

As I mentioned, the probability of Kalil getting injured is probably higher than other NFL centers due to age, wear and tear, etc. However his injury last year should not increase the odds of sustaining an injury next year unless his injury last year was not by chance.

Estimate the probability of missing 1 game, 2 games, 3 games, etc. given his age, position, number of games played in the league (i.e. wear and tear), bone density, etc.  Do a cost analysis with this probability curve to determine if he is worth keeping for 10m or replacing for 7m (or less).

It gets even more complicated given Kalil's skill level.  Let's say you think Kalil will play 8 games.  A first round C will cost 2m.  Is an 8/8 game split of Kalil/Larsen worth 5m more than a split of 1st rounder/Larsen?