Welp.... What are the chances we win a playoff game?

[jfo89]

I think this game is going to be closer than everyone expects. I expect a 30-27 kind of game that could go either way. The Falcons beat us because of bad no calls, Cams overthrows, and Matt Ryan extending plays while he was dead to rights. I don't see those things repeating 2 weeks in a row. 

[Borat]

2 hours ago, Iron Saint said:

Considering we've taken the ball away from you guys 6 times in the last two games, I'd say that's a large enough sample size to prove it was no fluke.

On that <5 yard patch and those particular plays? Still noise. Put another way, would you estimate the Falcons average anywhere close to 0/14 in 100 instances of the same down and distance? That’s the “expected value.”

[Iron Saint]

57 minutes ago, Borat said:

On that <5 yard patch and those particular plays? Still noise. Put another way, would you estimate the Falcons average anywhere close to 0/14 in 100 instances of the same down and distance? That’s the “expected value.”

C'mon, even over on TATF y'all been wanting Freeman publicly flogged and his head on a spike for how much he's been putting the ball on the ground. Talking about letting Freeman go and letting Coleman takeover the backfield as the lead horse. LOLOL.

[Borat]

8 minutes ago, Iron Saint said:

C'mon, even over on TATF y'all been wanting Freeman publicly flogged and his head on a spike for how much he's been putting the ball on the ground. Talking about letting Freeman go and letting Coleman takeover the backfield as the lead horse. LOLOL.

Sure, but that doesn't refute (or even address, really) the point I made. I'm simply providing a definition, and if you want to stand by your implication that the weighted expected points would amount to another, "0-fer", feel free. I just disagree.

[Borat]

1 hour ago, panthers_fan_in_tx said:

Less than 5 percent 

That's silly. MVP-ish Cam showed up ~4x this season, against good teams each time (NE, GB, DET, MIA [better than their record, IMO]), and against the two strongest on the road -- if it happens this weekend, there's a very good chance of a win. Barring that, an adequate performance coupled with a strong defensive showing also bodes well.

All in all, while it's not quite a coin flip, I definitely think the Panthers have a very real shot of pulling this one out, though a meltdown is also possible if things go awry (whereas I don't see the Saints losing by more than a TD if it were to happen). 

[Iron Saint]

12 minutes ago, Borat said:

Sure, but that doesn't refute (or even address, really) the point I made. I'm simply providing a definition, and if you want to stand by your implication that the weighted expected points would amount to another, "0-fer", feel free. I just disagree.

Of course I wouldn't expect another "0-fer" performance, but to discredit the takeaways that did occur to validate a "shoulda/coulda/woulda" argument is asinine.

[Borat]

14 minutes ago, Iron Saint said:

Of course I wouldn't expect another "0-fer" performance, but to discredit the takeaways that did occur to validate a "shoulda/coulda/woulda" argument is asinine.

Never said we should have won, just that the teams are probably closer than the final score indicated (especially in the 'garbage time points don't count' framework you presented). Again, there's no sim we can run (nor will the game be replayed enough), so you're 100% free to make whatever claims you want about relative strength. 

[Moneyman321]

Trying to remain positive : yes we have a chance. With a healthy Stewart, who has averaged almost 4.5 yards a carry against the saints this year, coming back our running game should bounce back. Our defense remains strong and New Orleans defense has been susceptible as of late. Hopefully Cam can shake it off and play big. 

Honestly, there were a lot of plays that didn’t go our way in the falcons game that really frustrated the team with no calls or drops or bad throws. We know how this teams can lack a desire sometimes. 

Realistically it all comes down to the first quarter. If we can come out strong then we have a chance. If we let them take advantage like the past two games then it’s over. This team struggles with passing so we need Olsen and Funchess to play big to have a chance. Gonna be very tough though. 

[pantherj]

We really don't have the right personnel to deal with the Saints the way Wilks wants. One thing about Luke is that he sucks at blitzing, and Wilks wants to blitz with the MLB. Even a little RB can own Luke when he's trying to blitz. Just not good. It's worse that TD is slow and weak now so you can forget about his once awesome blitzing ability.

Coleman is terrible in coverage, and against taller faster players he's a major liability in tackling. He also has weak legs that prevent him from jumping more than an inch in the air. Spooky bad. Like who can't jump in the air?

Did RR know that Wilks was going to blitz with Captain this much? Holy smokes. If we're going to do that then why didn't we draft a more talented CB? Captain is near the end of his career. Stop blitzing him. It's hard to watch.

Does anyone else think our LBs are making more mistakes than usual with run gaps ect? The Saints especially make Luke and the rest of our LBs look awful.

I'm not looking forward to this Saints game at all. We go down early and it's over.

So what has to happen? Honestly I wouldn't blitz much because we don't have the right personnel for it. Next draft we can pick up the players for what Wilks wants to do, but for now back off. It's not going to work on the Saints. How can we stop the Saints playing more coverage and backing off. It would seem they'd just pick us apart. They will, but the key to our outdated grandpa zone is what happens after the catch. In the old days you just rammed the receiver in the head and he dropped the ball and suffered brain damage. You can't do that anymore, but we still have to force turnovers after the catch. Superior athletes going against lesser athletes tend to become arrogant and focus on racking up YAC. That's where a poop athlete like Adams and our other DBs have a mental advantage. Each and everyone one of our DBs needs to be focused on causing a fumble after the catch. The peanut punch needs to be in full effect. We've got to punch the ball out, or pry it loose any way possible. Adams had this in mind here and it worked:

 

[RumHam]

What pisses me off is if the saints were the typical saints from the last few years, we'd be 13-3, home field advantage, and super bowl favorites. we don't match up well. it's the only fuging team we don't match up well with because they play a fuging arena football offense. the league wants brady vs brees since it can't have brady vs rodgers.

[NOVA_Panthers85]

50/50 like any other football game. Some of y'all forget its any given Sunday. You really think these boys aren't going to come to play on Sunday? They will be, lets see what happens. 

[PghPanther]

If the Panthers bring their A game...........and Saints bring their F game...............we have a 30% chance of winning..........its that bad.

[Billy Love]

I think we go to New Orleans Sunday and win big. Regardless of how bad we looked against the Falcons last Sunday. I really think we have enough veteran leadership to get it done. Hopefully they were embarrassed from last week and WILL NOT accept defeat going forward. Expect an absolute slobber knocker of a football game. 

[pantherj]

Go back and watch the last Panthers Saints game. Brees had multiple targets available to throw to on every pass play, and any one of those targets had a huge mismatch to exploit. Brees was literally trying to decide not who was open, but who would do the most damage on that play. When you see that you know it's no contest. It's not competitive. We have to force fumbles to make the game competitive, or Cam has to play A+ the entire game.