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We're getting the bye


RumHam

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5 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I could absolutely see the Niners beating the Rams, especially if the Rams are resting starters. The Niners are playing good football right now. If they had played like this all season they would be in the playoff chase.

I give the Bears maybe a 10% shot at the Vikings. Divisional games are always a bit of a toss up due to the familiarity of the teams and rivalry aspect.

Saints vs. Bucs, see above.

So, based on that, my personal opinion based on shoddy math is that we have a less than 1% chance of getting the bye seeing as that we are relying on two 10% scenarios and one, let's call it a 50/50 scenario. What does that equal? One half of a percent chance? Yeah, it's not good.

in terms of raw matchup probablility, theres 2 situations out of 32 possible outcomes where the Panthers get the #2 seed, not counting tie games. thats 1/16 chance or 6.25%. There's only one difference between those two situations, and its a game that is meaningless in relation to the Panthers (SEAvAZ). But thats assuming that each matchup is a 50/50 tossup. This is obviously not the case.

  • Personally, i put the Bears' chances of an upset at 10-20%. The Vikings have to know that they could possibly lose the 2nd seed if they rest starters and lose to the Bears. Then again, they may calculate that a Saints loss, a Rams loss, and a Panthers win is still highly unlikely and rest their starters anyway. What i think is more likely is that the Vikings play their starters but dont go all out to win the game. That way they can sort of rest their starters and their fans cant criticize them if they lose to the Bears and end up losing the 2nd seed in the process. 
  • The Saints @ Bucs game is very intriguing because its all going to depend on which Bucs team shows up. The Saints are hobbled in some areas but know that they could lose the division with a loss. They are playing their starters and going all out. If the Bucs show up and play like they did against the Falcons and Panthers, then i think there's an approaching-50% chance that the Bucs can pull of that upset.
  • The Rams game is also intriguing. They are resting starters and Jimmy G is on *insert fire emoji 12x*. I think its actually probable that the 9ers win that game. 
  • Which leaves the Panthers game. To me, our own game is the hardest to predict. My heart is telling me that we will play our starters and play to win, especially if it looks at the half like there is a close game down in Tampa. Even still, the Falcons are fighting for their playoff lives and wont have the ability to rest easy since the Seahawks are also playing in the 4:25 time slot. The line is currently at like -3.5 for the Falcons and im comfortable with that. As much as the Panthers may want that division crown, we are still assured a playoff spot no less than the 5th seed. i doubt we play as hard and risk injury as much as the Falcons are prepared to. Slight edge to the Falcons there. 

Your point is received that the chances of the Panthers netting the 2nd seed is slim. i think it may be alittle more than 1%, but i doubt its more than 10%. but these are all arbitrary numbers anyway.:)

#KeepPounding

(thanks to @Jesse from this thread for the link above)

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5 hours ago, Cracka McNasty said:

Prediction:

Jameis is hungry for one last W. He eats, everything falls in place for us to take a first round bye.

Then Julio torches Coleman and catches it this time and we get stuck with the 5th seed. 

I really just imagined this happening. Coleman has turned into Nakamura this season. He is done. 

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