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Who to root for/against, Week 12

UpstatePanther

By UpstatePanther,
in Carolina Panthers

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UpstatePanther Newbie

UpstatePanther

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Wish I could have gotten to this sooner, but this has been a hectic week (I work in retail). Last week, I kind of just threw the thread together with subjective judgments and encouraged discussion. I still encourage the discussion, but I'll make an effort to provide a more accurate "who to root for." Just want to thank everyone for their response last week. My thread made it on to the Huddle Facebook page, something I was not expecting and was very grateful for. But anyhoo... here it goes.

This week I will be making extensive use of this page to develop my analysis. Throwing a bone to a few Huddlers on that front lol.

Lets start with the current NFC playoff picture. The numbers after the team are overall record, division record, conference record, SOS, and SOV (retrieved from this page).

  1. Philadelphia,  9-1, 4-0, 7-0, .410, .389
  2. Minnesota,     9-2, 3-1, 7-1, .504, .467
  3. New Orleans, 8-2, 2-0, 6-1, .544, .476
  4. Los Angeles,  7-3, 2-1, 4-3, .442, .361
  5. Carolina,         7-3, 2-1, 4-3, .535, .479
  6. Atlanta*,         6-4, 0-1, 5-1, .520, .468
  7. Seattle,           6-4, 3-0, 4-3, .422, .344
  8. Detroit,            6-5, 3-1, 5-4, .540, .371
  9. Green Bay,      5-5, 2-2, 4-4, .534, .412
  10. Dallas,             5-6, 2-1, 4-4, .469, .346
  11. Washington,   5-6, 1-3, 4-5, .584, .392

* - Atlanta makes it in via H2H against Seattle.

so lets get on with the games... I will consider both division title and wild card implications for the Panthers.

Minnesota @ Detroit: Vikings Won

  • Minnesota's victory helped us, but so would have a Detroit win, depending on your outlook on the Panthers. If you don't think the Panthers are going to compete for a 1st round bye or the division crown, you probably wanted Minnesota to win to push Detroit further down the seeding, giving the Panthers a better chance at a wild card. The opposite is true if you believed the Panthers are still capable of achieving those loftier goals; you probably wanted Detroit to knock Minny down a peg to help clear the way for the Panthers. Its all a moot point now. The Panthers have already beat Detroit and own the tiebreaker against them for wild card implications. We control our destiny at the moment against Minnesota as well. Assuming the Panthers and Vikings win the next two games, the Panthers will have their chance to gain a H2H against the Vikings too. 
  • Its a little more complex than H2H tiebreakers too. the Lions have a cake schedule remaining. Their toughest two games will be @Baltimore next week and versus the potentially-Rodgers-assisted Green Bay in the finale. Otherwise they play @Tampa Bay, Chicago, and @Cincinnati, respectively. All five of those games are games the Lions can win, and 3/5 are should-win games. Minnesota has a slightly more difficult schedule, playing @Atlanta, @Carolina, vsCincinnati, @Green Bay, and vsChicago. Detroit may win out, whereas Minnesota could conceivably drop 3 of their last 5. Those two results would make the NFC North race very interesting. Both teams could end up 11-5 still. Not sure who would win out, but it doesn't matter to me. That would mean that there was at least one team with an 11-5 record competing for a wild card slot. Going forward, we should keep cheering for Detroit to lose.
  • Hindsight 20/20, it was better for us that Minnesota win. Our own division race may push us to wild card competition, and it helps to fend off Detroit in that case, especially since we can gain on Minnesota with a win against them. For this week, Minnesota can have a win. Briefly looking ahead, next week @Atlanta will be a similar situation. It would be good, and satisfying, for Minnesota to hand ATL a loss. I hope the score is 28-3. 

Los Angeles(C) @ Dallas: Chargers Won

  • Who doesn't like to see the Cowboys lose and lose big? It helped us too. It pushed the Cowboys basically out of the wild card picture barring epic collapses from teams like Atlanta and Detroit. This was pretty upfront for us. Fugg Dallas.

New York(G) @ Washington: Redskins Won

  • Would have been better for the Skins to lose. But they are in worse shape for playoff contention than Dallas. They need a lot of help to even compete. Not too worried about this result.

Buffalo @ Kansas City:

  • Now we begin the games on Sunday. This one is pretty clear cut. We want Buffalo to win because it makes our win against them look better. 

Tennessee @ Indianapolis:

  • Push. I can't see any way this affects the Panthers. I don't even have a personal stake. I like to see everyone in the AFC South do well for various reasons. My grandfather is a Colts fan, so I'm happy for him when they win. But the Titans seem to finally be having some success after so long at the bottom of the league. 

Cleveland @ Bengals:

  • Not only is this one of the few games left that I could see the Browns winning, I really can't stand the Bengals. Its one thing to take chances on less-than-choir-boy players, its another thing altogether to keep starting them after a multitude of infractions. Go Browns, cus otherwise, this is a push.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta:

  • Another clear-cut choice for Panthers fans. We want Tampa to win this game. Atlanta is a threat in the wild card picture. And who knows, if the Saints suffer a collapse, that season finale the Panthers have down in Atlanta could be for the division title if Atlanta goes on a tear. I doubt they will though. They play the Vikes next week, the Saints twice, and the Panthers one more time. They have another meeting with the Bucs too, but does anyone really think the Bucs will win either one? :/

Miami @ New England:

  • We won against both teams, thus this game doesn't matter to us. But fugg the Pats. Go fish.

Chicago @ Philadelphia:

  • Obvious pick here. Need Chicago to win if we have any hope of capturing the 1st seed from Philly. I'll admit that its a looooong shot at this point to hope for the 1st seed, but if the Panthers win out and Philly drops 3 games, it could happen. Chicago is one of those sneaky teams (as we know all too well) that can surprise a superior team. Its not inconceivable that it could happen to Philly too. Will be a tough sled playing in Philadelphia for the Bears. But one can hope right?

Seattle @ San Francisco:

  • I think consensus here would be that we want to keep Seattle's slide down the standings going. The hilarious part of this is that I think San Francisco could do it. Seattle has lost its mojo. They are rocked by injuries (though I think San Fran is too). Still, go 9ers. 

New Orleans @ Los Angeles(R):

  • We REALLY need Los Angeles to pull this one off. Imagine how magical it would have been if the Saints had lost to the Redskins, and then lost this weekend to the Rams. Assuming a Panthers victory in New York, we would have been waltzing into New Orleans with the division lead and a boulder on our shoulders from the embarrassment they handed us early in the season in our house. As it stands, doesn't matter if the Rams win or not. Lets assume for a second they don't, just for hypotheticals. If the Panthers win against the Saints the following week, we'd both have a 9-3 record, but we would gain the lead on our division record, which would be 3-1 to New Orleans' 2-1. Now if the Rams do win this week, and the Panthers win next week, we would hold a one game lead on New Orleans in overall record, with that same divisional tiebreaker in place waiting in the wings. That would give us a little cushion. And thus, we want the Rams to win. Not the end of the world if they don't, but sure helps us if they do. 

Jacksonville @ Arizona:

  • Arizona is terrible but we dont want them getting cocky, and as I mentioned earlier, I'm fond of all the AFC South teams. Go Jags. 

Denver @ Oakland:

  • Push. but fugg Denver. Go Rrrrrrraiders. 

Green Bay @ Pittsburgh:

  • Need Pittsburgh to continue GB's slide into mediocrity. Here we go Steelers, here we go.

Houston @ Baltimore:

  • Push. I like both of these teams, so I could care less who wins. Doesn't matter for the Panthers at all either.

 

As before, sound off and let me know what you think. Seems to be alot of obvious picks this week.

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UpstatePanther Newbie

UpstatePanther

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7 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

Can’t do this again.

I get to KC and Buffalo and you’re already doing it wrong. We want KC to win so our draft pick from Buffalo gets better.

Did you not learn that strength of schedule means basically nothing from last week?

I’m not thinking of the draft. But I see what you’re saying.

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Nails Newbie

Nails

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Pulling against Buffalo.  We traded Kony for 8 slots, “gold”, in the 3rd/end 2nd.  Buffalo can choke on a splinter now this year.  Good for us.

Tampa will not win in Charlotte on Christmas Eve.  But also will not go winless in the division.  They’re simply not THAT bad.  Translation-expect them to beat the Falcons or Saints at least once.

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Nails

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1 hour ago, UpstatePanther said:

Wish I could have gotten to this sooner, but this has been a hectic week (I work in retail). Last week, I kind of just threw the thread together with subjective judgments and encouraged discussion. I still encourage the discussion, but I'll make an effort to provide a more accurate "who to root for." Just want to thank everyone for their response last week. My thread made it on to the Huddle Facebook page, something I was not expecting and was very grateful for. But anyhoo... here it goes.

This week I will be making extensive use of this page to develop my analysis. Throwing a bone to a few Huddlers on that front lol.

Lets start with the current NFC playoff picture. The numbers after the team are overall record, division record, conference record, SOS, and SOV (retrieved from this page).

  1. Philadelphia,  9-1, 4-0, 7-0, .410, .389
  2. Minnesota,     9-2, 3-1, 7-1, .504, .467
  3. New Orleans, 8-2, 2-0, 6-1, .544, .476
  4. Los Angeles,  7-3, 2-1, 4-3, .442, .361
  5. Carolina,         7-3, 2-1, 4-3, .535, .479
  6. Atlanta*,         6-4, 0-1, 5-1, .520, .468
  7. Seattle,           6-4, 3-0, 4-3, .422, .344
  8. Detroit,            6-5, 3-1, 5-4, .540, .371
  9. Green Bay,      5-5, 2-2, 4-4, .534, .412
  10. Dallas,             5-6, 2-1, 4-4, .469, .346
  11. Washington,   5-6, 1-3, 4-5, .584, .392

* - Atlanta makes it in via H2H against Seattle.

so lets get on with the games... I will consider both division title and wild card implications for the Panthers.

Minnesota @ Detroit: Vikings Won

  • Minnesota's victory helped us, but so would have a Detroit win, depending on your outlook on the Panthers. If you don't think the Panthers are going to compete for a 1st round bye or the division crown, you probably wanted Minnesota to win to push Detroit further down the seeding, giving the Panthers a better chance at a wild card. The opposite is true if you believed the Panthers are still capable of achieving those loftier goals; you probably wanted Detroit to knock Minny down a peg to help clear the way for the Panthers. Its all a moot point now. The Panthers have already beat Detroit and own the tiebreaker against them for wild card implications. We control our destiny at the moment against Minnesota as well. Assuming the Panthers and Vikings win the next two games, the Panthers will have their chance to gain a H2H against the Vikings too. 
  • Its a little more complex than H2H tiebreakers too. the Lions have a cake schedule remaining. Their toughest two games will be @Baltimore next week and versus the potentially-Rodgers-assisted Green Bay in the finale. Otherwise they play @Tampa Bay, Chicago, and @Cincinnati, respectively. All five of those games are games the Lions can win, and 3/5 are should-win games. Minnesota has a slightly more difficult schedule, playing @Atlanta, @Carolina, vsCincinnati, @Green Bay, and vsChicago. Detroit may win out, whereas Minnesota could conceivably drop 3 of their last 5. Those two results would make the NFC North race very interesting. Both teams could end up 11-5 still. Not sure who would win out, but it doesn't matter to me. That would mean that there was at least one team with an 11-5 record competing for a wild card slot. Going forward, we should keep cheering for Detroit to lose.
  • Hindsight 20/20, it was better for us that Minnesota win. Our own division race may push us to wild card competition, and it helps to fend off Detroit in that case, especially since we can gain on Minnesota with a win against them. For this week, Minnesota can have a win. Briefly looking ahead, next week @Atlanta will be a similar situation. It would be good, and satisfying, for Minnesota to hand ATL a loss. I hope the score is 28-3. 

Los Angeles(C) @ Dallas: Chargers Won

  • Who doesn't like to see the Cowboys lose and lose big? It helped us too. It pushed the Cowboys basically out of the wild card picture barring epic collapses from teams like Atlanta and Detroit. This was pretty upfront for us. Fugg Dallas.

New York(G) @ Washington: Redskins Won

  • Would have been better for the Skins to lose. But they are in worse shape for playoff contention than Dallas. They need a lot of help to even compete. Not too worried about this result.

Buffalo @ Kansas City:

  • Now we begin the games on Sunday. This one is pretty clear cut. We want Buffalo to win because it makes our win against them look better. 

Tennessee @ Indianapolis:

  • Push. I can't see any way this affects the Panthers. I don't even have a personal stake. I like to see everyone in the AFC South do well for various reasons. My grandfather is a Colts fan, so I'm happy for him when they win. But the Titans seem to finally be having some success after so long at the bottom of the league. 

Cleveland @ Bengals:

  • Not only is this one of the few games left that I could see the Browns winning, I really can't stand the Bengals. Its one thing to take chances on less-than-choir-boy players, its another thing altogether to keep starting them after a multitude of infractions. Go Browns, cus otherwise, this is a push.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta:

  • Another clear-cut choice for Panthers fans. We want Tampa to win this game. Atlanta is a threat in the wild card picture. And who knows, if the Saints suffer a collapse, that season finale the Panthers have down in Atlanta could be for the division title if Atlanta goes on a tear. I doubt they will though. They play the Vikes next week, the Saints twice, and the Panthers one more time. They have another meeting with the Bucs too, but does anyone really think the Bucs will win either one? :/

Miami @ New England:

  • We won against both teams, thus this game doesn't matter to us. But fugg the Pats. Go fish.

Chicago @ Philadelphia:

  • Obvious pick here. Need Chicago to win if we have any hope of capturing the 1st seed from Philly. I'll admit that its a looooong shot at this point to hope for the 1st seed, but if the Panthers win out and Philly drops 3 games, it could happen. Chicago is one of those sneaky teams (as we know all too well) that can surprise a superior team. Its not inconceivable that it could happen to Philly too. Will be a tough sled playing in Philadelphia for the Bears. But one can hope right?

Seattle @ San Francisco:

  • I think consensus here would be that we want to keep Seattle's slide down the standings going. The hilarious part of this is that I think San Francisco could do it. Seattle has lost its mojo. They are rocked by injuries (though I think San Fran is too). Still, go 9ers. 

New Orleans @ Los Angeles(R):

  • We REALLY need Los Angeles to pull this one off. Imagine how magical it would have been if the Saints had lost to the Redskins, and then lost this weekend to the Rams. Assuming a Panthers victory in New York, we would have been waltzing into New Orleans with the division lead and a boulder on our shoulders from the embarrassment they handed us early in the season in our house. As it stands, doesn't matter if the Rams win or not. Lets assume for a second they don't, just for hypotheticals. If the Panthers win against the Saints the following week, we'd both have a 9-3 record, but we would gain the lead on our division record, which would be 3-1 to New Orleans' 2-1. Now if the Rams do win this week, and the Panthers win next week, we would hold a one game lead on New Orleans in overall record, with that same divisional tiebreaker in place waiting in the wings. That would give us a little cushion. And thus, we want the Rams to win. Not the end of the world if they don't, but sure helps us if they do. 

Jacksonville @ Arizona:

  • Arizona is terrible but we dont want them getting cocky, and as I mentioned earlier, I'm fond of all the AFC South teams. Go Jags. 

Denver @ Oakland:

  • Push. but fugg Denver. Go Rrrrrrraiders. 

Green Bay @ Pittsburgh:

  • Need Pittsburgh to continue GB's slide into mediocrity. Here we go Steelers, here we go.

Houston @ Baltimore:

  • Push. I like both of these teams, so I could care less who wins. Doesn't matter for the Panthers at all either.

 

As before, sound off and let me know what you think. Seems to be alot of obvious picks this week.

I mentioned before that the Rams may be the only team where SOS/SOV MAY come into play.  The Rams played the Texans, so therefore root for the Ravens if you want to go WAY down that rabbit hole.

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