Seems like common sense to me, but why don't QB's go short to long on their reads?

[PrimeTimeHeel]

2 hours ago, lightsout said:

It's always funny when people that do not understand what goes into a play or a system try to say what a team SHOULD be doing.

In our system, Cam operates as intended. The issue with our system is an over-reliance on plays built to try to hit the 40 yard pass on the majority of plays. Always have a deep route, sure. Whether it be a post, corner, or simple go route you can determine if they're going to come open based on 1. identifying the coverage and 2. noticing if that player is beating his man. Notice man coverage outside and you know that matchup wins more times than not? Take that shot. Steve Smith built his entire career with Jake around that simple process. The problem here is that we have a lot of plays with 2 or 3 receivers running routes that go deep. Usually two go routes and a corner or post. Seriously, the next time you're at a Panthers game in BoA, just watch the route combinations. You will see 2 or 3 of the receiving options are deep. What's the progression there? Usually that post is going to be the first look on Cover 2 or man coverage. Fine. After that, checking at least one go route (usually to the strength side. So whatever side has numbers, that's likely the next step in the progression). Then you come underneath unless you want to check that backside route to see if maybe you have a 1 on 1 that you like (Cam does this often). 

When people say "Cam doesn't go through his progressions and see open guys underneath", that last part is true. It frustrates me and everybody else, clearly. But that sentence is not true entirely. Neither is "Cam doesn't have the internal clock to get rid of the ball". Cam is simply going through Shula's system's progression. Multiple deep routes being at least the first two reads in that progression. By the time he gets through those, because of the length of time it takes for those to be seen, he's having to pull the trigger on a throw or run for his life.

Those nice 10-15 yard out routes are great, but are likely the first or second read. Those are playcalls meant to hit there, as evidenced by how often we throw them. Against Tampa Bay, for instance. We kept throwing between the numbers and sideline. Why? Because it's what this offense is more times than not. Get a bunch of yardage and it's relatively safe. Throw the ball outside, make your receiver catch it right at the sideline with worst case being a defender making a crazy interception, assuming you don't throw the ball too tight in to the receiver or behind him. We never even tempted the middle of the field as an option consistently. This lead to Tampa being able to just stay inside and tight to our receivers KNOWING they were going to break outside, which lead to an interception.

Cam is doing what he is meant to do within this offense. Again, Shula hurts us purely by the design of the system and the way he calls plays. It's crazy predictable.

Yea this is a huge problem with Shula's offense. 

He regularly sends 3 people deep. Allowing the D to completely fall back and not even worry about coving short as we rarely have short curls, drags, or in's going across the middle. And even when we do have a route like this Cam usually never throws it. 

You need to make the D account for as much of the field as possible. 

I imagine an opposing team's d film session leading up to our game goes something like this. 

1) Stop the run up the middle on 1st down and likely 2nd down. 

2) Stop the go routes, deep inside posts and sideline out routes. 

Pretty much our whole offense right there. 

 

[Darvinsun]

7 hours ago, TheRed said:

I get your frustration with Shula, I really do. I agree about poor play design and bad play calls. All that has to improve.

Not sure how can you call 2015 an anomaly. That's exactly the type of football the Panthers want to play. Stout defense, punishing run game, and speed deep. On top of all that Cam Newton as a threat on any given down.

Even if we do start force feeding CMC even more, eventually defenses are going to adjust. When you can't run the ball, and you have no deep threat, the D is going to begin teeing off on the QB.

I completely disagree about ultimately being successful without an adequate deep threat. If that's the type of offense you want, then it's time to blow it all up, because that isn't Cam Newton football.

It is anomaly because on both sides of the ball each side overachieved to compensate the bad decisions made by the coaching staff.  Defense with scoring turnovers. Offense getting more drives with a perfect Cam and Stew, and Olsen. The receivers were bad then and they are still bad. We would have a better record probably today if bryd and samuel are used like Ginn. I see no need for funchess and Kb to be on the field at the same time unless in the red zone. Our players compensated for the coaches bad decisions and playcalls. Defense and Cam compensated for poor play of the wr by giving them more chances to make plays.

Defense isn’t getting turnovers and not scoring but they are shutting most teams down from scoring. The problem is Cam is not showing the same mindset as he did in 2015. He cannot cover up for shula, poor run game, wrs, oline, on top he is not 100% healthy ..its too much for him right now.

 

 

 

 

[NAS]

I don't think the philosphy should ever be long-to-short or short-to-long, but rather on what the best option is.  If there is an option to go deep, and there is time in the pocket, then the deep throw should be the better play because you are more likely to result in a TD scoring drive.  If you're constantly looking to make the short throw, then you become easy to defend. Cam just needs to get better at making the right read.  If the deep throw isn't a gimme, then the short throw to keep the chains moving makes sense.  

[PrimeTimeHeel]

10 hours ago, NAS said:

I don't think the philosphy should ever be long-to-short or short-to-long, but rather on what the best option is.  If there is an option to go deep, and there is time in the pocket, then the deep throw should be the better play because you are more likely to result in a TD scoring drive.  If you're constantly looking to make the short throw, then you become easy to defend. Cam just needs to get better at making the right read.  If the deep throw isn't a gimme, then the short throw to keep the chains moving makes sense.  

But that deep throw (if a go route) is the lowest % pass in football. What's more likely to result in a TD scoring drive is doing things that have the highest chance of sustained success. 

A team can not cover everything on a certain play assuming you are attacking many parts of the field. So a QB can still be successful if he is constantly looking to throw short so long as he makes the right reads and his timing and accuracy is on point (this assumes we are mixing up the play calls and have complimentary routes)

A vertical or go route is almost never a gimmie. Even when the WR has a step or two on the DB. Takes great placement and a catch usually over the shoulder way down field to complete. There is a reason it's the lowest % pass play in football. If the DB falls down or bites on a double move with no S help then yea throw the vertical. Our problem is we throw this low % pass when its not a gimmie and often times on 3rd and short. Just killing drives and bailing out the opposing D.