The Biggest Issue That is Being Overlooked

[Carolina Cajun]

Right now, the big issues that are being discussed are J-stew and the run game, the O-line, and having deep threats on offense, but regularly the biggest issue and most essential thing to our success is being routinely overlooked, and that issue is Turnovers.

In 2015, we had an anomaly of an offense that our offensive production did not quite match the ridiculous points we were putting up, and comes simply down to the historic rate we were getting turnovers AND protecting the ball.  2016, we took a dive in that direction that can go hand in hand with fully disassembling the back half of that defense besides Kurt Coleman.  Losing Norman, Tillman and the injury to Benwikere lead to stagnation in the turnover margin.  So far this year, the stagnation has hit it's worst point yet as we have generated only 1 interception on the year, and are -6 in margin good for 29th in the NFL.  For reference of how bad that is, the 3 teams worse than us in turnover margins are a combined 4-13.  You can not lose the turnover margin like we have and continue to be good.

Not only does turnovers put us in a poor position, but turnovers have generally given a direct indication of how good this team performs under Rivera and Newton.

2011)+1 = 6-10 record

2012)+1 = 7-9 

2013)+11 = 12-4 

2014)+3 = 7-9

2015)+20 = 15-1

2016)-2 = 7-9

2017)-6 = 4-2 currently

To go further, the panthers as an organization has NEVER made the playoffs without being on the positive side of the turnover margin.

So now we know how important turnover margin is for us, this needs to be corrected, and the question becomes how do we address this.  Aside from the below average play from worley, I think our DB's as a whole need to start taking some gambles, and we need to deviate from our strickly soft zone coverage.  It works to keep everything in front of us and prevents the big play, but with how well our D-line has been playing, I think it's time that the secondary needs to take some chances.  A flustered and pressured QB will make bad decisions, and you only capitalize on these bad decisions if the man in coverage is within the same area code as the receiver.  We won't get back to the level of Theives Ave, but we don't really need to, we just need to be alright and put some fear in opposing QB's heads.

[csx]

Our own turnovers lead directly to 15 pts on short fields in a game we lost by 5. Turnovers in both directions sway games in a big way.

[lightsout]

I don't think anyone has overlooked the importance of turnovers, but the lack of execution across the board is the more pressing issue. 

[E CaT PanTHer 2]

half of all turnovers simply comes down to the bounce of the ball. I can attribute at least 4 of Cam's interceptions on tipped passes. 

it's only a matter of time before we start catching some breaks. 

[E CaT PanTHer 2]

i remember in the divisional playoffs against the seahawks when CAP fumbled the ball after Stew's 60+ yard scamper on the opening play, the ball bounced right into ed dickson's arms. if seattle somehow recovered that, the outcome of that game could have been completely different. 

those are the breaks you need to be successful, and we just haven't gotten them so far in 2017. looking on the bright side, we're still 4-2 with a -6 turnover margin. Things can only get better from here on out. 

[Khyber53]

Good teams make turnovers happen. Bad teams just let them happen.

I agree with the OP, particularly on the defense being less opportunistic. The soft zone and a pushing front seven is wasting half of the defensive effort. 

[xav8tor]

Gotta love facts. OP has a point, and I agree that soft coverage isn't helping. Whether it's by design to address weaknesses in secondary personnel, or for some other reason, a change is needed. Getting Coleman back, and in previous form, should help, but won't be enough by itself.

Remember Tillman? He has apparently gone on to new things, having recently been spotted in Quantico training with federal LEO types. Perhaps his greatest contribution here in was teaching the Peanut Punch, and the technique's strong emphasis every single practice and game. ALL eleven guys need to have it in front of their minds whenever they are within an arm's reach of the ball.

As stated above, good teams make turnovers happen, and the punch, along with similar maneuvers, is one darn good way to do it! How many times back in 2015 did you hear it mentioned, even by commentators during national prime time? Now, how many times have you heard about it this year?

[Shocker]

Our schedule as it turns out has been fairly tough so far.  Outside of San Fran all the teams we have played are pretty damn good.  It is seriously time to turn this turnover thing around this week.  The Bears are worst in turnover margin and we have to get some this week.  I think we have a good team but the injuries have been really tough for us.  Gotta get some wins till these guys get back.

[PhillyB]

how many have we dropped? like six?

[CPcavedweller]

1 hour ago, Carolina Cajun said:

Right now, the big issues that are being discussed are J-stew and the run game, the O-line, and having deep threats on offense, but regularly the biggest issue and most essential thing to our success is being routinely overlooked, and that issue is Turnovers.

In 2015, we had an anomaly of an offense that our offensive production did not quite match the ridiculous points we were putting up, and comes simply down to the historic rate we were getting turnovers AND protecting the ball.  2016, we took a dive in that direction that can go hand in hand with fully disassembling the back half of that defense besides Kurt Coleman.  Losing Norman, Tillman and the injury to Benwikere lead to stagnation in the turnover margin.  So far this year, the stagnation has hit it's worst point yet as we have generated only 1 interception on the year, and are -6 in margin good for 29th in the NFL.  For reference of how bad that is, the 3 teams worse than us in turnover margins are a combined 4-13.  You can not lose the turnover margin like we have and continue to be good.

Not only does turnovers put us in a poor position, but turnovers have generally given a direct indication of how good this team performs under Rivera and Newton.

2011)+1 = 6-10 record

2012)+1 = 7-9 

2013)+11 = 12-4 

2014)+3 = 7-9

2015)+20 = 15-1

2016)-2 = 7-9

2017)-6 = 4-2 currently

To go further, the panthers as an organization has NEVER made the playoffs without being on the positive side of the turnover margin.

So now we know how important turnover margin is for us, this needs to be corrected, and the question becomes how do we address this.  Aside from the below average play from worley, I think our DB's as a whole need to start taking some gambles, and we need to deviate from our strickly soft zone coverage.  It works to keep everything in front of us and prevents the big play, but with how well our D-line has been playing, I think it's time that the secondary needs to take some chances.  A flustered and pressured QB will make bad decisions, and you only capitalize on these bad decisions if the man in coverage is within the same area code as the receiver.  We won't get back to the level of Theives Ave, but we don't really need to, we just need to be alright and put some fear in opposing QB's heads.

Fun Fact: Any team that has fewer turnovers than their opponents are more likely to win. It doesn't take a genius to point it out. If you want to send me a spread sheet with the number of turnovers in one column, the number of forced turnovers in column B, the number of wins in column C, and the number of losses in column D,  I will run a scatter plot and some linear regressions to get the correlation for you. 

[Carolina Cajun]

2 hours ago, E CaT PanTHer 2 said:

i remember in the divisional playoffs against the seahawks when CAP fumbled the ball after Stew's 60+ yard scamper on the opening play, the ball bounced right into ed dickson's arms. if seattle somehow recovered that, the outcome of that game could have been completely different. 

those are the breaks you need to be successful, and we just haven't gotten them so far in 2017. looking on the bright side, we're still 4-2 with a -6 turnover margin. Things can only get better from here on out. 

This IMO is the biggest takeaway right now, we have been winning despite losing the turnover battle.  We've compared ourselves to the 2015 Broncos in the past because they went from best in the NFL on offense, to miss the playoffs, to superbowl championship from in 2015 as redemption.  What was missed is that their record didn't recognize their talent BECAUSE of turnovers.  They were -4 in turnover diff during the season and struggled a lot because of peyton's issues. The main thing for them though was their offense turning the ball over, ours is generating turnovers on defense.  If we have any hope of a run this year, our defense needs to start giving our offense some positive field position.

[Shocker]

We fuggin miss Coleman immensely.  He is so underrated.  

[xav8tor]

48 minutes ago, CPcavedweller said:

Fun Fact: Any team that has fewer turnovers than their opponents are more likely to win. It doesn't take a genius to point it out. If you want to send me a spread sheet with the number of turnovers in one column, the number of forced turnovers in column B, the number of wins in column C, and the number of losses in column D,  I will run a scatter plot and some linear regressions to get the correlation for you. 

Ooooohhh...regression analysis and correlation. Do it. Don't know why you got poo for offering to take it up about twenty notches. Maybe you just blew his mind with all that complexified scientificalish terminitology. Toss in a couple of other variables like interceptions v. fumbles, forced, sack fumbles, etc. so we can perhaps see where to put the emphasis. I'm in! KBFan might have some data already.

[General_Purr]

Im starting to see more and more that all this baseline talk about not planning for any individual and its all execution blah blah blah is you see Individual Players are the playmakers. Coleman is a INT machine. Swap him with someone else? No the execution does not equal us getting the same INTs. 

Luke, TD, Peppers, Coleman, sometimes Shaq are the only players who really ever make turnovers. Its not because of their positioning.. not because of this gray man poo its because they have something others don't. We just need more big time players. Can never stop adding talent