Rivera on blowing leads

[KB_fan]

6 minutes ago, tiger7_88 said:

I think this right here is the huge, blinking, neon arrow of statistical evidence pointed at the head coach.

Yes, I have to agree with you, that was pretty damning data...!  I was surprised we weren't better in 2015 on offense in the 4th given how many points we put up.  2014's improved performance in offensive scoring in the 4th was I think because we had quite a few comeback wins.  In 2015 we got leads early and then tried to coast, which is exactly what the concern has been focused on.

[tiger7_88]

4 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

We've scored 13 points in the 4th, while allowing 41 points.  OOF.  Terrible!  But, we're 4-1.  I can live with the drama if we can keep pulling out wins, but yes, I'd rather we find a way to fix this!

That kind of thing is a metaphorical form of russian roulette for football.

You keep spinning that cylinder and pretty soon its gonna hit a chamber that ain't empty.

[top dawg]

40 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Here's the 2016 data in the normal format I use to present it, (rows instead of columns), including the scoring data for each quarter:

Grisly details:

Outscored in the 4th quarter in 13 out of 16 games.

Outscored by 161 points against to 89 points for.  OUCH.

Lost 6 games in which we had leads of 17 points, 10 points (twice), 8 points (twice) and 4 points.  That Kansas City loss when we'd been leading by 17 was the nail in the coffin of the season, I believe.

Here's perhaps the worst:  for the season on average we maintained only 5% of our largest lead per game, due mostly to losing so many games where we had a lead.  But even games we won, we frittered away 60 - 85% of our leads in 3 of those 6 games...

[top dawg]

I love you for that @KB_fan!

[TheSpecialJuan]

Well, at least it's better than the alternative. Rivera blowing coc.....

[KaseKlosed]

He answered it correctly 

[KB_fan]

1 hour ago, KB_fan said:

For 2016, stats are ugly, as would be expected with a 6-10 record and a season where we lost 6 of 8 extremely close games.

What I think I find most damning about 2016 is that Panthers had leads in 12 games at some point in the 2nd half, but only won 6 of those games.  We won NO games where we came from behind in the 2nd half.

I'm going to present the data in two formats in order to try and give the clearest picture of what went wrong:

 

By the way, I forgot to comment on something in relation to the 2016 stats.

Notice we lost 7 games in the 4th quarter, 4 of them inside the 2 minute warning!!!  There is only 1 game that the Panthers won due to a score in the 4th qtr (vs. Rams).

Truly, Riverboat was absent... this looked more like the 2011 - early 2013 Ron when Panthers were NOTORIOUS for losing close games.  Then Ron and the Panthers TOTALLY turned that stat around from about week 4 of 2013 - 2015.

I know at some point we have to worry that these close games in 2017 will come back to bite the Panthers in the butt, but the fact that we've pulled out 3 wins in 3 close games really does thrill me.  When the Panthers win close games under Ron & Cam, we make the playoffs....

[KB_fan]

How much do people want to see the quarter-by-quarter scoring data and the details of blown leads for the Panthers in 2011 - 2014?

I have all the gamebooks downloaded, but I wasn't maintaining a database in those seasons.  If people find what I've posted for 2015 - 2017 helpful and want to see the same kind of data presentation for those earlier seasons under Rivera & Cam, give me a shout and I'll see what I can do over the weekend.  Got a lot of extra free time on Sunday with no Panthers game on!

[Snake]

People love to poo on Ron but each week he is truthful and it seems to be corrected the next week. Like not using Dickson enough and people freak out and call him a idiot. He's much more open than as Fox who loved to say nothing at all. 

[NAS]

2 minutes ago, Snake said:

People love to poo on Ron but each week he is truthful and it seems to be corrected the next week. Like not using Dickson enough and people freak out and call him a idiot. He's much more open than as Fox who loved to say nothing at all. 

Except that this has been an issue for years. I am not pooing on Ron for everything.

[KB_fan]

On 10/11/2017 at 5:28 PM, PhillyB said:

@KB_fan

any chance you'd be interested in seeing how RR blown leads stack up against the league average for blown leads?

Hey Philly... hope some of the stuff I've posted above answers your question.  If you wanted to see some other kind of stats, give me a shout and I'll see what else I can find.

My data / comments begin midway on page 8 and continue for a page or so....

Overall, Ron's average is slightly better than the league average in winning games when Carolina has led at some point in the game.  But that overall average masks terrible years in 2011, 2012 and 2016.  2016 excluded, the trend looks like Ron & the Panthers have improved on holding on to a lead to some extent, with 2015 being an exceptionally improved season in that regard.

BUT what the data also shows is that for 6 of 7 seasons so far under Ron, the Panthers have been near the bottom of the league in 4th quarter scoring - both on offense & defense, with defense having a good year in 2013, and offense having a blip good performance in 2014.

A 4-1 record can hide a lot of trouble.  The fact that we've been outscored 41-13 in the 4th quarter so far this season looks like looming trouble that I'm hoping our coaches will devote attention to now that they're talking about it publicly.

You know, actually, I'm SO glad Ron brought up this topic this week.  It shows (as best we can tell as outsiders) that he and the team aren't settling.  Aren't taking 4-1 for granted.  He's identifying areas for improvement.  Whether he can actually make any changes that will show up on the field is unclear, but at least he's to some extent recognizing the problem.  Can he really deal with the roots of it in order to cure it?  Don't know.  But I'm cautiously optimistic that we may see an uptick in 4th quarter performance.

[top dawg]

Well, like I alluded to in my thread this week, Rivera seems to be learning.

Just curious as to how the firing of Gettleman has affected Ron's analytical musings...

[Darth Biscuit]

As always @KB_fan your analysis is excellent.

[cptx]

28 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

The fact that we've been outscored 41-13 in the 4th quarter so far this season

Holy poo that is terrible