Rivera on blowing leads

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, ras977 said:

"sarcasm"--Rivera is not that bad in comparison.

He's not that good either.

We've been blowing leads since he got here. Asked why, he blames players. Pretty sure we haven't always had the same players, so how valid an excuse is this really?

[KB_fan]

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

Yet still does...

And please don't throw "coach of the year" in there as if it means something.

Well, actually, looking a bit at Panthers / Rivera's performance in recent seasons in terms of giving up leads, I'd say 2015 Coach of the Year DID mean something, because our 2015 performance overall was DRAMATICALLY improved in terms of holding on to our leads / not getting outscored in the 4th qtr.

I'll post more tomorrow, but 2015 was a notable turn around for the team in these stats, it seems.

Sure, there were a few heart-stopping, extremely memorable games where we frittered away a BIG lead, and those are all seared in our minds:  Indy, Green Bay, NYG, and the Seattle playoff game.

BUT, we held on to 100% of our largest lead in 6 games; and maintained 67% to 99% of our largest lead in another 4 games.  That's 10 of 18 games where we had a lead at some point where we maintained at least 2/3rds of our biggest lead.  A huge anomaly in Panthers' history since 2011, I believe.

So, yeah, Ron deserved coach of the year in 2015.  We played aggressively.  Different results.  It meant something.  

Don't let those 4 very narrow escapes where we blew a big lead in 2015 bias the reality.

But more tomorrow... 

[JawnyBlaze]

If we could somehow meld Rivera and Arians we’d have....probably belichick. A great coach anyway. 

[Tomcatn]

11 hours ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

When you play the Panthers teams know Ron is going to ease up and try to coast to the finish. Teams know they will always have a chance for a comeback. 

As much as I can't stand them, you know once the Taints or Pats get a 20 point lead they are going to keep pouring it on. Teams know it's going to be extremely difficult to beat those teams once they're up on you. 

It's about finishing the game and not putting the team in a position to lose. RR doesn't finish opposing teams and that's a problem whether you're 16-0 or 2-14. 

This has been an issue since Ron got here, so its nothing new. But when you see the Panthers up by 20, you know a comeback is coming. Hell, most of us expect it. 

I personally think to myself “here we go, a good lead and it’s the 4th qtr”. Then the sinking feeling in my gut takes effect. Can we hold on one more time? I am so tired of that poo.

[Jangler]

9 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

He's not that good either.

We've been blowing leads since he got here. Asked why, he blames players. Pretty sure we haven't always had the same players, so how valid an excuse is this really?

Rivera has a gambling problem.

[Proudiddy]

But, thats also just the defensive perspective.  What he isnt addressing is how the offense tends to go into a catatonic state once they go up by 2 scores, mostly attributed to Ron not wanting to offend anyone.  Seriously, if you have a pair, let them hang out there...

[Darth Biscuit]

10 hours ago, KB_fan said:

Well, actually, looking a bit at Panthers / Rivera's performance in recent seasons in terms of giving up leads, I'd say 2015 Coach of the Year DID mean something, because our 2015 performance overall was DRAMATICALLY improved in terms of holding on to our leads / not getting outscored in the 4th qtr.

I'll post more tomorrow, but 2015 was a notable turn around for the team in these stats, it seems.

Sure, there were a few heart-stopping, extremely memorable games where we frittered away a BIG lead, and those are all seared in our minds:  Indy, Green Bay, NYG, and the Seattle playoff game.

BUT, we held on to 100% of our largest lead in 6 games; and maintained 67% to 99% of our largest lead in another 4 games.  That's 10 of 18 games where we had a lead at some point where we maintained at least 2/3rds of our biggest lead.  A huge anomaly in Panthers' history since 2011, I believe.

So, yeah, Ron deserved coach of the year in 2015.  We played aggressively.  Different results.  It meant something.  

Don't let those 4 very narrow escapes where we blew a big lead in 2015 bias the reality.

But more tomorrow... 

I would very much like for you to analyze 2015 in regards to this as I remember it being a lot more than 4 games... that Saints game, which I was at, came down to a Josh Norman INT in the endzone of Josh fuging McCown as the Saints were rallying from behind...

2015 had all the stars aligned for the Panthers...  yet we still blew leads and had to fight at the end of quite a few games.  Back in 2013 (I think) when "Riverboat Ron" was born, we all thought he'd learned his lesson... but it didn't stick...

 

Listen, I get what people are saying about griping and the fact that we're 4-1.  I love the fact that we're 4-1 and I hope we keep winning, but we're winning because the PLAYERS are overcoming the challenge.  The coaching is HURTING us, not helping.

[DaveThePanther2008]

Yeah I get it Ron, you want Cam to have as many come from behind victories as Brady and Rodgers but they do it because they are actually behind.  Not give up the lead so Cam can show his stuff off.

You keep playing the same way that got you there.  If you run the freaking score of to 100 point who give a damn.   Keep doing what got you there.  It is amazing how we have to continue to pull our hair out at the end of the game.  Hoping and counting on Cam to make a play for us.  

[twylyght]

CH.... every.... day....

Can't wait for these same posters to rail against the coaching staff for continuing to play aggressive when another key player gets injured in the process

[DaveThePanther2008]

Just now, twylyght said:

CH.... every.... day....

Can't wait for these same posters to rail against the coaching staff for continuing to play aggressive when another key player gets injured in the process

Players get hurt whether we play prevent or the way we got there. 

You should NEVER let up on any team.  If there is time on the clock you play 60 minutes.  Not 45 and freaking pray the other team doesn't come back.

[xav8tor]

2 minutes ago, twylyght said:

CH.... every.... day....

Can't wait for these same posters to rail against the coaching staff for continuing to play aggressive when another key player gets injured in the process

Where are the stats or other evidence that proves there's less injury risk running up the gut only to put a tired defense back on the field to face an aggressive attack? Seems a bit counterintuitive to me.

[KB_fan]

Ok, so had a little bit of time to crunch some numbers.  It's hard to find an exact site / stat that tracks blown leads, so I've had to improvise...  Hope this is helpful.

First, I used Pro Football reference to look at win-loss records when the team had a lead:

 

 

The year by year part of the table above shows the Panthers success in games when they had a lead (at ANY point in the game) from 2011 - week 5 of 2017.  The bottom line is the NFL success rate in winning games when a team had a lead, over the same time period.

(Just a note:  PFR's database results in double the game totals for the entire NFL because it analyzes each game from the standpoint of both teams.  It doesn't affect the results of the data, but it does look strange to see a table showing 3358 NFL games in the last 6 1/3  seasons.)

So for the entire NFL, teams on average win 63% of games in which they've had a lead.

The Panthers were significantly BELOW that average in 2011, 2012, and 2016.  But Ron / the team showed marked improvement from 2013 - 2015, and then the terrible regression last year.  I think one of the factors contributing to Ron & the team's bad rep in terms of squandering leads is the fact that in 2011 & 2012 especially, the team GOT leads at an above average rate (leading in 88% of games they played in, nearly 10 points above average), but LOST those leads and lost games at a much worse than average rate.

While interesting, this data doesn't really specifically address the question of how the team plays on offense & defense in the 2nd half, and especially the 4th quarter...  more to follow below,

 

[KB_fan]

Here's some very damning evidence about how poorly the Panthers have tended to play on both sides of the ball in 4th quarters:

Via the Team Rankings site, I looked at how the Panthers ranked in 4th quarter points scored and 4th quarter points allowed since 2011.  UGH:

Only once each on offense and defense have the Panthers been in the top half of the league in terms of 4th quarter scoring under Ron.

But 8 times -  four seasons each for offense & defense - we've been in the bottom 10 of the league in 4th quarter scoring.

[ecu88]

1 minute ago, KB_fan said:

Here's some very damning evidence about how poorly the Panthers have tended to play on both sides of the ball in 4th quarters:

Via the Team Rankings site, I looked at how the Panthers ranked in 4th quarter points scored and 4th quarter points allowed since 2011.  UGH:

Only once each on offense and defense have the Panthers been in the top half of the league in terms of 4th quarter scoring under Ron.

But 8 times -  four seasons each for offense & defense - we've been in the bottom 10 of the league in 4th quarter scoring.

The proof is in the pudding.