Lions Perspective - What To Watch For

[Saca312]

Another good piece from the Lions fanbase highlighting some match-ups to keep an eye on.

Take a look.

https://www.reddit.com/r/detroitlions/comments/74zzmq/scouting_the_panthers/

What to Watch:

Lions Offensive Line vs. Panther Defensive Line

The Lions Offensive Line hasn't been particularly good in years, and with it looking more like an episode of MASH these days, it's hard to be optimistic about them in this game. With 2 starting OTs on IR, the back-up RT Questionable for the game, the only Center Questionable, and the starting RG Questionable, you have to wonder how effective the unit will be, even if they have enough players suit up to play (which all indications are they will). Factor in them facing one of the elite defensive lines in the league, and this game could get ugly quickly.

This will not be a question of whether the Lions Offensive Line gets beaten. It's a question of how badly, how the Lions adjust, and how much that disruption impacts the offense. Will the Lions be keeping an extra blocker back? Will the Lions use quick-outs to create time and manage pressure? Will Stafford's timing get thrown off?

Whatever happens, watching this battle will tell you a lot about how the game will be going.

Detroit Lions Explosive Plays

The Panthers have excelled at keeping big plays off the board. Their defense has allowed a league-low 9 plays of 20+ yards. Of those 9 plays, 5 came in their loss against the Saints, with Drew Brees throwing 4 big throws and Alvin Kamara breaking off a 25-yard touchdown run. In fact, the Panthers only allowed 12+ yard plays 35 times this season, with 10 coming in their close game against the Patriots, and 11 coming in their loss to the Saints.

This is bad news for the Lions, who have been among the worst in the NFL at generating explosive plays. Their 11 plays of 20+ yards ranks as the 6th worst mark. They've been fairly consistent, getting 2-3 in every game so far this year. That one of them was by Kasey Redfern certainly doesn't lift any spirits. The Lions' 35 plays of 12+ yards matches well with the Panthers, and shows the Lions' lack of dependence on them in previous games. With 11 each against Arizona and Atlanta, their comeback and their close loss, it hasn't been a vital component. Moreover, with only 5 in their most comfortable victory (Giants), they've shown they can put up points without them.

Nonetheless, against a defense that limits opposing QBs to a mere 8.9 Y/C, and has only lost when teams can put up explosive plays, the Lions' lack thus far is certainly worrisome. If the Lions can take some risks and generate big plays, it should go a long way towards winning them the game. If not, the Lions offense could easily stall out early on and never recover.

Turnover differential

As mentioned above, one of the Panthers' weaknesses is in generating and preventing turnovers. With them facing the league-leaders in generating turnovers (23.4% of drives), and one of the most turnover-secure offenses (4.3% of drives, 4th best), the Panthers will have to turn around both trends in a tough situation if they want to compete.

On offense, the Panthers Offense is averaging nearly 2 TOs per game. The Lions Defense, on the other hand, is averaging nearly 3 TOs generated per game. On defense, the Panthers are averaging about 0.5 TOs generated per game, while the Lions Offense is averaging only 0.5 TOs given up per game. Over the last 10 years, having a turnover differential of -2 resulted in a win rate of 0.133. If the team generates 0 turnovers, that shrinks to 0.105, or 1 win every 10 games. Of the 64 wins in that period, 51 (or ~80%) have ended on a 1 score margin, and we all know what the Lions are like with comeback opportunities.

If the Panthers don't generate any turnovers, and they continue to give the ball away at their present rate, the odds are not in their favour. Of course... the Panthers have already won 1 game this year where they didn't generate a turnover, and they gave up the ball 2+ times. Whose to say they couldn't do it a second time?

 

[Saca312]

What interests me is how injured their offensive line is. Can't imagine it would be hard for us to give Stafford a really hard time with our defense. Add the fact their run game isn't the most respectable, and we should find ourselves in nickel packages more often - which our defense excels in.

Could see this turning into a defensive struggle. Or a game in our favor.

[jfra78]

These defensive struggles sometimes turn into offensive shootouts.  I could see this happening this time. It seems like everyone is writing us off, i like our chances

[PlantBasedPoster]

Injured o-line for lions....would be great to see our defense feast on Matthew "my face says I should be 300lbs of baby fat" Stafford

[Smithers]

Last week was a bounce back week for our offense.  This week needs to be a bounce back week for our defense, exspecially uo front.  We have given up nearly 70 points in the last two weeks.  I understand it was Brees and Brady, but we still have to play better.  Hopefully the offense builds off last week and the defense returns to weeks 1 and 2 form.  

[Saca312]

2 hours ago, Smithers said:

Last week was a bounce back week for our offense.  This week needs to be a bounce back week for our defense, exspecially uo front.  We have given up nearly 70 points in the last two weeks.  I understand it was Brees and Brady, but we still have to play better.  Hopefully the offense builds off last week and the defense returns to weeks 1 and 2 form.  

defense would easily bounce back. lions are some of the worst in big plays and our defense is monstrous against the run, and in general in nickel packages.

could see that continuing and capitalizing on Stafford's mistakes.