Is our offense predictable or not?

[panthers55]

Given the last thread about this is 16 pages long and filled with few facts and lots of opinion lets actually look at the numbers.  I used sharpfootballstats.com which provided all of this for free.  Yes we do pass out of the shotgun and run from under center but how does it compare to league averages and does play formation determine what we do or is it more down and distance and field position? If this is too many numbers just ignore it and keep up the opinioned drivel.

In 2017 we were under center 35% and in shotgun 65%.  Overall NFL average was  42% under center and 58% in shotgun.

Under center we ran the ball 79% of the time and we ran out of shotgun 33% of the time (over 100% must be when we started for example under center and then moved to shotgun)  League average was run under center 69% and pass 21%.

In the shotgun we ran it 21% of the time and passed it 67% of the team.  League average was 31% and 80%.  Yes I know they dont add up to 100% but they give you tendencies. 

At this point  are we predictable based on formation? it is still hard to tell. Lets look closer.

Since we use the shotgun 65% of the time  lets talk about that first.  So on first and ten what do we do?  So far on 28 plays we have passed 57% of the time and run 43% of the time?  Predictable???? How about on third and 3 or less? We run right? Actually we are 50-50 run and pass.

How about third and between 4 and 7 yards?  We pass right?  Yep but it is only 56% pass and 44% run.  

What about under center?  Do we run it all the time because Cam isnt comfortable throwing from under center?  Actually it too early to tell given that we have been under center 22 times and only 3 categories has an n of greater than 2.    We have been under center on 12 occasions on first and 10.  So far we have run it 72% of the time and passed 28%.  On 2nd and less than 3 we have run the ball from under center all five times.  Predictable or because we have a 60% success rate converting it.  On second down and between 4 and 7 yards from under center we have run it 8 times and passed it 2.  Success rate 50%

Everyone is worried about the redzone.  Problem is that we have only had 7 plays out of the shotgun in the redzone without an n of more than 2 in any particular situation.  Under center the n is small again just 8 plays and the only one which even has a tendency is 1st and 10 where we have 4 plays and they are evenly split 2 and 2 run and pass.

So after looking at context and situation?  Are we as predictable as the quantity stats would suggest.  No.  Does it require a more thorough look to draw any conclusions?  Yes as I said from the beginning.  Should we follow this throughout the year to see if tendencies are being developed and how successful are these tendencies. definitely.

Check out the site and see what you find.  There are a ton of things that they offer to look at players, plays, situational stats, etc.

sharpfootballstats.com  

I did some homework.  You do the same and then lets have an informed discussion.  I am looking at all the Shula and Cam critics.....  Hopefully my numbers are correct.  It is still early......

 

 

[Jangler]

the Bills game proved we are predictable.

We couldn't even be bothered with trying something new/different against a coach who knew our tendencies. 

This is a downhill ride unless somebody, somewhere in the Panther Origination, figures out how tho play to the strengths.

 

[ForJimmy]

I predicted you were going to post this.

[ForJimmy]

I really want to see Samuel catch something aside from his two bubble screen catches a game with 3 guys in his face...

[panthers55]

5 minutes ago, Jangler said:

the Bills game proved we are predictable.

We couldn't even be bothered with trying something new/different against a coach who knew our tendencies. 

This is a downhill ride unless somebody, somewhere in the Panther Origination, figures out how tho play to the strengths.

 

No it proved that the defensive coordinator who played against our offense every day for 5 years had a good idea of what we are going to do.  Apparently we did the same thing to them. That game actually tells you very little. 

[panthers55]

7 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

I predicted you were going to post this.

And I predicted some newbies would come in the thread and make nonsensical meaningless posts. Meanwhile, other more established posters will come in and post the same drivel about Shula and wont even bother to look at the numbers.

[Jangler]

Just now, panthers55 said:

No it proved that the defensive coordinator who played against our offense every day for 5 years had a good idea of what we are going to do.  Apparently we did the same thing to them. That game actually tells you very little. 

and this post tells me you are an asshole.  I was actually agreeing with you, asshole. The playbook was out since 50 and McD added to it, asshole.

[Jangler]

asshole

[panthers55]

9 minutes ago, Jangler said:

and this post tells me you are an asshole.  I was actually agreeing with you, asshole. The playbook was out since 50 and McD added to it, asshole.

And your post tells me you don't have a clue about gameplanning week to week..  When you change your gameplan, you cant just throw out the playbook or totally install a new one. You dont just install a new system or change up everything.  So of course McDermott will know a lot about us.  that doesnt mean we didnt change things up or gameplan for them.  

 

[Jangler]

snob

[Jangler]

3 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

And your post tells me you don't have a clue about football.  When you change your gameplan week to week you cant just throw out the playbook or totally install a new one. You dont just install a new system or change up everything.  So of course McDermott will know a lot about us.  that doesnt mean we didnt change things up or gameplan for them.  

 

yeah, 9-3 says we did nothing for future games. play today or play for next year....

[panthers55]

2 minutes ago, Jangler said:

yeah, 9-3 says we did nothing for future games. play today or play for next year....

I dont even know what that means?  Each game is about matchups.  What happened with Buffalo has no bearing on this week or the future other than Olsen got hurt.

[Jangler]

if we don't get 300 yards offence and 25 points, and win the game against the Saints, we can all check out for the season. 

[ecu88]

My football hatin wife can predict Shula's playcallings, that should tell you something.

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