The first time the dog bites, it is the dog's fault...

[Smithers]

You take the points.  We were at home and our defense was playing lights out.  Plus we showed no ability to convert on 3rd and short in 58 minutes.  

Our defense played almost 8 full quarters at the time without giving up a TD.  Odds were good we could stop the Bills again.  the game changes completely when you have to score a TD to win vs a FG to tie.  A stupid PI penalty almost guanetees them a chance to tie.  Take the 3 and have faith in your defense.

[Smithers]

16 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

You can cry whatever you want, but you are wrong.  Zay Jones dropped a pass  that should have beat us.  Just like they did years ago.  Smart coaches put the odds in their team's favor if they can---and he reduced our odds of winning by 5%.  That is not BS--that is how the Patriots beat teams--they put the opposition at a disadvantage.  This is more chess than it is chest pounding.

Here's the problem with those "odds."  They are based on us going for it and converting, scoring a TD.  If we don't convert, then how much do our odds go down at that point?  Probably double digits.  We had trouble converting all day in short to go situations.  Not sure why you're so confident it would be any different in this situation.  

[RetiredCollegeCoach]

Statistical analysis is irreplaceable as self-critique on your worst "gut" tendencies - i.e., whatever bullsh*t conventional wisdom has unaccountably crystalized in the back of your mind. But using it to score individual plays is a fool's errand.

Rivera made the right call. He understood the balance of units and judged accordingly.

[RetiredCollegeCoach]

a/k/a what Smithers said

[TheWiz]

There's statistics and then there is history. We drafted a kicker... because our kicker is PROVEN to be unreliable. I don't buy all this "taking 3 points," as if we haven't had issues closing out games with our kicker.  There's a risk involved whatever you do.

I just kind of like my chances of 4th and goal with 2 of the top 3 leading rushing touchdown players in CAROLINA PANTHERS HISTORY.

And even if you don't get it, Buffalo gets the ball on their own 2 yard and has to drive it 98 yards to win against a Panthers defense that has been killing them. It was the wrong call.

 

 

 

 

[E CaT PanTHer 2]

you do realize if we went for it and failed, bills kick a FG and the game is headed to overtime.

they hadn't put the ball in the endzone all game. it was the right decision by rivera. 

[RetiredCollegeCoach]

1 minute ago, TheWiz said:

There's statistics and then there is history. We drafted a kicker... because our kicker is PROVEN to be unreliable. I don't buy all this "taking 3 points," as if we haven't had issues closing out games with our kicker.  There's a risk involved whatever you do.

I just kind of like my chances of 4th and goal with 2 of the top 3 leading rushing touchdown players in CAROLINA PANTHERS HISTORY.

And even if you don't get it, Buffalo gets the ball on their own 2 yard and has to drive it 98 yards against a Panthers defense that has been killing them. It was the wrong call.

 

 

 

 

Our kicker was proven to be unreliable... on kicks like the one in question? 

You do realize that distance has some effect on kicking reliability, yes?

[Ace_Aladdin]

41 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

You can cry whatever you want, but you are wrong.  Zay Jones dropped a pass  that should have beat us.  Just like they did years ago.  Smart coaches put the odds in their team's favor if they can---and he reduced our odds of winning by 5%.  That is not BS--that is how the Patriots beat teams--they put the opposition at a disadvantage.  This is more chess than it is chest pounding.

But he won the game , he knew where his best odds where and that was the defense because it proved itself on the field for 4 qtrs 

[Pejorative Miscreant]

3 minutes ago, E CaT PanTHer 2 said:

you do realize if we went for it and failed, bills kick a FG and the game is headed to overtime.

they hadn't put the ball in the endzone all game. it was the right decision by rivera. 

But your assuming we fail.  Just look at all of the offensive succes...  oh nevermind. 

[Saca312]

41 minutes ago, Smithers said:

Here's the problem with those "odds."  They are based on us going for it and converting, scoring a TD.  If we don't convert, then how much do our odds go down at that point?  Probably double digits.  We had trouble converting all day in short to go situations.  Not sure why you're so confident it would be any different in this situation.  

It's actually only a 5% less chance of winning.

Pinning the Bills at the two helps that a lot if the TD fails.

[Smithers]

The bigger issue...this team still feels it needs to play soft zone defense when the game is on the line 

[panthers55]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

I  have not seen Rivera's  decisions on the goal line questioned yet.  However, it was a few  years ago--against Buffalo--when RR kicked a FG up by 3 on fourth and 1.  We lost when Buffalo scored a TD.  Rivera admitted it was stupid, and he converted to what we would later call  Riverboat Ron.

Sunday was no  different. On 4th and 2 or so, we should have gone for it for the exact same reason we should have a few years ago against buffalo.  And we nearly lost the same way--a TD pass at the end of the game. 

I stumbled across this ESPN article  that explains my point-

"The Panthers' field goal on 4th and goal from the 2, up 3 points in the 4th quarter, stands out as the biggest 4th down error of the week, losing 5% win probability based on the decision. Being up 6 with about 3 minutes to play merely invites the Bills to go for the TD and the win, rather than a FG to tie. And failing to convert wouldn't be so bad, leaving the Bills likely inside their own 2. Ultimately, it didn't cost the Panthers, as the Bills failed to score on their final drive. "

Riverboat Ron?  Hardly.  Any gambler knows the odds and plays them.   He should have known what to do having been there before against the very same team.

 

So let me get this straight. We should have gone for it on 4th and 2 up by three so if we failed they could have tied it with a field goal instead of a TD. How stupid. How many short yard failures did we have at the goal line yesterday? How many times did they get inside our 20?  Truth is if we went for it and didn't make it they would have likely scored a field goal and sent it to overtime. No Rivera made the right move and anyone with half a brain would agree given the way things were going.

[Fox007]

3 hours ago, rayzor said:

paddleboat ron.

that's what we've got until a fire is lit under his keister.

lmao yea...

He's surprisingly soft for a defensive player. I'd rather have Wilks as a HC at this point....he seems to actually have balls between his legs.

[Fox007]

2 hours ago, panthers55 said:

So let me get this straight. We should have gone for it on 4th and 2 up by three so if we failed they could have tied it with a field goal instead of a TD. How stupid. How many short yard failures did we have at the goal line yesterday? How many times did they get inside our 20?  Truth is if we went for it and didn't make it they would have likely scored a field goal and sent it to overtime. No Rivera made the right move and anyone with half a brain would agree given the way things were going.

You can't make two catastrophic failures on the 1 and hope to score. Not blocking #90 was just hilariously stupid by our OL and could have been the TD right then and there. Then we miss a wide open TD pass....I mean that part was player execution for all the times Shula derps it up he can't block and throw a good pass there....that was def on the players that possession.